The field of 64 teams for the 2022 NCAA College World Series is set and college baseball fans can finally rejoice knowing that the most exciting few weeks of the season are nearly upon us. On Monday afternoon, the selection committee divided the field into Regional groups of four, which, beginning on June 3rd, will face off in double elimination tournaments to see which 16 teams will move on to Super Regionals. With so many different teams from so many different conferences all coming together, it is sure to be an exhilarating few weeks. But before the madness ensues, I’m going to take my best shot at predicting who will make it out of this weekend and who will see their season end earlier than they’d hoped.
Knoxville: Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Campbell, Alabama State
Given that I am a student at Vanderbilt, it pains me to say that there is minimal chance Tennessee does not make it out of this group. They enter the tournament as the #1 seed in the nation, and after winning the SEC tournament without trailing any opponent for even an inning, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the Volunteers don’t take care of business. Their greatest competition will likely come from Georgia Tech, who currently sits at #21 in the RPI rankings after finishing .500 in one of the nation’s toughest conferences. Still, give me Tennessee to sweep the competition and move on to host a Super Regional the following weekend.
Statesboro: Georgia Southern, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, UNC Greensboro
In one of the more intriguing regional groups, I’ll take third-seeded Texas Tech to pull off a few upsets and keep their season alive. Georgia Southern (#11 in RPI) and Notre Dame (#13 in RPI) have both been impressive this year, but I haven’t seen enough from them against top competition to believe that they have what it takes to win games down the stretch. Texas Tech, on the other hand, has played some of its baseball against the Big 12’s top programs, and I think their experience against difficult competition will prove vital this weekend. Furthermore, the postseason is the last chance for top prospects to boost their stock before the MLB draft, and I expect second base phenom Jace Jung to do exactly that while leading his team to victory this weekend.
Austin: Texas, Louisiana Tech, Dallas Baptist, Air Force
The Texas Longhorns got a great draw with Air Force and Dallas Baptist in their group, though I do think Louisiana Tech can give them a challenge. Texas entered the season as the unanimous number one team in the nation, and despite getting off to a slow start, they have never fallen too far in the rankings. They have the third highest team batting average and have hit the fourth most home runs in the nation. Out of their three opponents, only Air Force ranks among the top 50 in either of those statistics, and they have done it against a much weaker slate of competition. I just don’t see any of the other teams in this group being able to keep up with Texas’s offense, and for that reason I’ll take the hosts to advance out of this group.
Greenville: East Carolina, Virginia, Coastal Carolina, Coppin State
After falling to Vanderbilt in the Super Regional last year, East Carolina has rebounded nicely and has been one of the nation’s most consistent teams this season. I expect them to cruise by Coppin State in their first matchup before running into either one of the country’s most well balanced teams in Virginia or a red hot Coastal Carolina team that has won 16 of its last 20 games. Ultimately, I’m going to pick UVA, who is ranked top twenty in both batting average and ERA, to stop East Carolina’s dreams of a trip to Omaha and earn their spot in the final 16.
College Station: Texas A&M, TCU, Louisiana, Oral Roberts
Texas A&M finished off their season by winning their final seven SEC series, meaning they are one of the nation’s hottest teams entering the tournament. Their offense is firing on all cylinders, and clearly the selection committee took notice when they gave them the fifth overall seed. I’m going to go against my better judgment, however, and pick the Big 12 regular season champion TCU Horned Frogs to win this group. I’ve been high on TCU all year, and I think A&M’s suspect pitching staff will ultimately be their downfall in what I expect to be a thrilling weekend of baseball in College Station.
Louisville: Louisville, Oregon, Michigan, Southeast Missouri State
Both Louisville and Oregon disappointed in their respective end-of-season tournaments, as each failed to win a single game. Meanwhile, Michigan, who was initially seen as a bubble team, went on an unexpected run to win the Big 10 tournament and earn a guaranteed bid.Though the Wolverines are ranked #61 in RPI, I would not be surprised if they are able to ride their momentum to a few more wins this weekend. I’ll take rising star Dalton Rushing and the Louisville Cardinals to win the group, but I think it will come down to a sudden death matchup on Monday night.
Gainesville: Florida, Oklahoma, Liberty, Central Michigan
Similar to Michigan, Florida boosted their stock with an impressive showing at their conference tournament, and I fully expect them to build on this success and advance past this weekend. However, Oklahoma could be a tough out. In the last month, the Sooners have not only won the Big 12 tournament, but have also won series against Texas Tech and TCU. Liberty’s impressive pitching staff could also cause problems for the Gators, should they meet in the second round. Still, I’m picking red-hot Florida to defend their home turf and move on to Super Regionals.
Blacksburg: Virginia Tech, Gonzaga, Columbia, Wright State
Virginia Tech entered the season outside the top 25 in just about every preseason power rankings list, but they have done nothing but crush the baseball and mow down opposing lineups every day since. They will have to continue to do so this weekend, as while Columbia and Wright State don’t pose huge threats, Gonzaga wields one of the nation’s best pitching rotations. The Zags have already beaten two of the tournament’s one seeds (Oregon State and Oklahoma State), so it wouldn’t come as a shock if they take down the Hokies. That being said, I’m going to trust Virginia Tech, the nation’s #4 overall team, to take care of business and keep their season alive for another week.
Stanford: Stanford, Texas State, UC Santa Barbara, Binghamton
Stanford is the first Pac-12 team that I’m picking to advance to the final 16, and I don’t anticipate them having any trouble doing so. The Cardinal has won 16 consecutive games, has already taken down #3 ranked Oregon State three times this spring, and led the Pac-12 in both ERA and home runs. I have trouble believing that any of the other teams in this group can give Stanford a run for their money, though I am intrigued to see if UC Santa Barbara’s highly regarded pitching staff could slow Brock Jones and the rest of the Stanford lineup, should they match up on Saturday or Sunday.
College Park: Maryland, Wake Forest, UConn, LIU
It was exciting for all Marylanders to see UMD earn the chance to host a regional for the first time in program history, but unfortunately, I don’t see them making it out of this weekend. A disappointing showing at last weekend’s Big 10 tournament leaves the Terps searching for answers as they enter the tournament, and getting matched up with the sixth-best team in the nation according to RPI in Wake Forest doesn’t make things any easier. I expect Maryland and Wake to meet on the final day of the regional in what should be a thrilling game, given that they are both top ten in home runs and slugging; however, I’ll take the Demon Deacons to advance.
Chapel Hill: North Carolina, Georgia, VCU, Hofstra
I think North Carolina is being severely underrated entering the tournament. They are ranked fourth in RPI, just won the ACC tournament with ease, and recently took series against two tournament teams in Florida State and the aforementioned Wake Forest. As the #10 overall seed, they got a tougher draw than they deserved. Despite losing their last four SEC series, Georgia’s hot start showed how dangerous they can be, and there are few hotter teams than VCU, which has won 15 straight games. Still, the Tar Heels should win this group, making them my fifth ACC team in the final 16.
Stillwater: Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Grand Canyon, Missouri State
Stillwater will host one of the lower scoring tournaments this week, as each of the top three seeds are ranked in the top 50 in ERA but outside the top 50 in slugging. Statistics show that Grand Canyon wields the best offense in the group, but they also faced a much lighter schedule than Oklahoma State and Arkansas. A few weeks ago, I would’ve taken the Razorbacks to pull off the upset and advance but since then they lost two SEC series and failed to win a game at the conference tournament. Instead I’ll go with the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who have lacked consistency this year but have shown flashes of brilliance, to advance.
Coral Gables: Miami, Arizona, Ole Miss, Canisius
This group is intriguing, as Miami, Arizona, and Ole Miss all entered the season in the composite preseason top 25 rankings. Since then, only Miami has kept its spot towards the top. Ole Miss sputtered out of the gate before finding their groove down the stretch, while Arizona got off to a hot start but has cooled off in recent weeks. All three teams possess the potential to advance, but between Ole Miss’s inconsistent offense and Arizona’s weak starting rotation, Miami has the upper hand. I have trusted the ACC up to this point and that won’t change here: give me the Hurricanes.
Hattiesburg: Southern Miss, LSU, Kennesaw State, Army
You may have noticed that I’ve paid almost no attention to the four seeds so far, but in this group I actually think Army could give Southern Miss a scare. Southern Miss relies heavily on their pitching staff, so in a game that could easily be decided by one or two runs, Army’s lineup, which is batting above .300, could be the difference. Even if Southern Miss takes care of Army, I believe LSU, whom I watched dismantle my Vandy Boys a few weeks ago, will beat them and advance, thanks to an offense that is hitting its stride at the right time.
Auburn: Auburn, UCLA, Florida State, Southeastern Louisiana
After sitting towards the top of the SEC standings for most of the season, Auburn lost in the first round of the conference tournament. Their resume was still enough to earn them a number one seed but they seem much more susceptible to an early exit now than they did a couple weeks ago. Meanwhile, UCLA answered any questions about the validity of their offense when they put up a combined 32 runs in two games against Oregon State last weekend. I think the Bruins will defeat Florida State, who is having somewhat of a disappointing season, before dismantling SEC co-player of the year Sonny DiChiara and the Auburn Tigers en route to becoming my fifth two seed in the final 16.
Corvallis: Oregon State, Vanderbilt, San Diego, New Mexico State
As much as I want to choose Vanderbilt to advance out of Corvallis, Oregon State has simply been too good this year to pick such an upset. Cooper Hjerpe is one of the best pitchers in the nation, and the Beaver offense gets on base at the 16th highest rate in Division I. I do think that Vanderbilt has the edge against a San Diego team that is not particularly strong at the plate nor on the mound, especially since freshman southpaw Carter Holton, who hasn’t allowed a run in 24 consecutive innings, is slated to start for Vandy on Friday. Should they be forced to beat Oregon State to advance, however, I’ll reluctantly take the Beavers to win and prevent the Commodores from going to Omaha for the first time since 2018.
Luke Rollfinke is a student at Vanderbilt where he is pursuing a career in sports journalism. A recent graduate from the Friends School of Baltimore, Luke has spent his entire childhood in Charm City and is a devoted Orioles fan. In the past, he has written for SB Nation and has worked closely with Ravens columnist John Eisenberg. From nights at Camden Yards to Sunday afternoons watching NFL Redzone, Luke eats, sleeps, and breathes sports. He is excited to bring his perspective to BSL.