What makes a winning football team?
Star players, wise coaching, a shrewd front office, and a loyal fan base are certainly important parts of the equation.
There’s a lot that goes into winning a football game, and nuance is often the difference maker. But in terms of an all-around on-field product, each team has a certain identity. Each team has certain strengths they play to and identify weaknesses in their opponents they try to exploit. Many times, whichever team does a better job of this is the one who wins the game.
The Ravens identity, for the longest time, was to hold their own on offense, play dominant defense, and be solid on special teams. Now, their offense doesn’t just carry their own weight, but are the strength of team. The defense has morphed into a different kind of dominant unit. They don’t have Hall of Fame players but are still plenty talented. The special teams unit remains an excellent unit with no real weaknesses.
Across the board, the Ravens have the personnel and coaching staff to compete with any team in the league. There are, however, a few problem areas that need addressing this season if they want to stop sliding in the win/loss column.
In 2019, Lamar Jackson became Baltimore’s full-time starter at quarterback. With him being on the team the season prior and supplementing the team with the ensuing draft class, Baltimore was able to re-mold their team to fit his skillset. It turned out to be a smart move, as their diverse run game and timely passing game led to a franchise-best 14-2 record. However, since then, the Ravens have lost three more games each year than they lost the previous year (11-5 in 2020, 8-9 in 2021). There are three key stats that explain, at least in part, why they’ve slid in consecutive years.
Of course, injuries are an obvious reason for a rapid decline. Yet, the egregious number of injuries Baltimore sustained didn’t occur until 2021, so hurt players isn’t the only excuse.
There are three areas in which the Ravens excelled in 2019, that since have eroded quite a bit: 3rd down conversions, 4th down conversions, and red zone touchdown percentage. Offensively and defensively, those areas look very different now than they did at this time three years ago.
*for reference, percentages indicate 3rd or 4th down conversions, or red zone trips that ended in touchdowns*
| 2019 BAL offense/defense | 2020 BAL offense/defense | 2021 BAL offense/defense | Average | |
| 3rd down % | 47.1/37.1 | 48.8/34.0 (deviation: +1.7/-3.1) | 36.4/34.8 (deviation: -12.4/+.8) | 44.1/35.3 |
| 4th down % | 70.8/33.3 | 63.2/45.7 (deviation: -7.6/+12.4) | 66.7/66.1 (deviation: +3.5/+20.4) | 66.9/48.4 |
| Red zone TD % | 67.2/47.7 | 63.3/62.2 (deviation: -3.9/+14.5) | 61.8/54.0 (deviation: -1.5/-8.2) | 64.1/54.6 |
| Wins/losses | 14-2 | 11-5 | 8-9 | 11-5 |
A few things pop out at you when looking at this data. In 2019, the Ravens had the best record they’ve ever had. That year, they were 10 percent better than their opponents at converting 3rd downs, more than doubled up their opponents on 4th downs, and had a near 20 percent advantage scoring touchdowns in the red zone.
While those numbers weren’t easy to sustain, they did a pretty good job of maintaining their offensive success in 2020. The problems started that year on defense, when they allowed a double digit increase in opposition 4th down conversions and red zone touchdown percentage. That’s a sobering fact, but the team still won 11 games as well as a playoff game that season. While it seemed like a down year in certain ways, it was a return to the mean and included Jackson’s first playoff victory. In other words, at the end of 2020, the future was still looking bright.
Then, at the beginning of 2021, things seemed to fall apart. Baltimore’s 3rd down percentage went in the tank—down to 36.4 percent. While their 4th down percentage was good, converting two out of every three attempts, the Ravens allowed an alarming 66.1 percent 4th down conversion rate on defense—essentially neutralizing what had been a massive advantage for them two years prior.
In essence, the Ravens’ 4th down defense allowed twice as many conversions in 2021 than they did in 2019. What happens when you’re an injured football team and you keep giving the other team chances to score? Extended drives, backup players get fatigued, and the offense has less opportunities to counter. The result? A six-game plummet in the win column in just two seasons.
While there are plenty of variables that could skew the direction of a football team, I think these stats give a fair look at how offensive and defensive performance in those areas correlates to wins and losses.
If the Ravens want to return to the playoffs and enjoy a double-digit win season, this data screams they need to play markedly better red zone offense and 4th down defense.
When you get to the red zone, score touchdowns. When a team goes for it on 4th down, get them off the field.
Period.
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.