Ravens 2023 UFA Outlook

Teams have until July 15th to sign their franchise-tagged players to a new contract. If no deal is struck, that player will play the 2022 season “on the tag” and receive a fully guaranteed average of the top five salaries at that position. Then, in March of 2023, the player will become an unrestricted free agent.

Many speculated Lamar Jackson might be franchised, but he wasn’t. In fact, according to RavensWire, the Ravens have only used their franchise tag twice in the last decade. Besides, it would’ve made no sense: Lamar wouldn’t have gotten long-term security, and Baltimore would’ve incurred a crippling cap hit in 2022.

While this isn’t an article about Lamar Jackson’s next contract, it will examine the other key Ravens that are set to become unrestricted free agents in 2023.

For the Ravens to sustain their business model, they can’t just have good starters. They must establish and sustain key depth. The establishment of depth has been accomplished. The sustainment of said depth, however, is a process that requires yearly attention.

Like most challenges, there are waves of adversity, and the NFL is no different. Sometimes teams are tight against the cap and have to let good players go to another team for a better offer (Orlando Brown, Jr.). Sometimes, though, teams are in a bit of a lull where they can create some breathing room for themselves. This coming offseason is one of those times for the Ravens.

There are a total of 18 players on the Ravens roster scheduled to be unrestricted free agents when the 2023 league year begins. Besides Jackson, who’s in a category of his own, there are three players who have played substantial snaps as of late: Marcus Peters, Kyle Fuller, and Ben Powers. All three of them present unique cases.

Peters is unquestionably an elite talent at the cornerback position. His instinct and confidence makes him worth every bit of his $15 million cap figure. He missed all of last season, though, so obviously his performance this year will be closely analyzed. Fuller is a 7-year NFL vet, a former All-Pro, and entered the league as a 1st round pick in 2014, so he’s also got a high ceiling. Powers is a player who has been constantly improving and has provided key depth during each of his three seasons as a Raven.

All three of these players present value to the Ravens. The real question is how much is that value worth to the franchise?

Besides Peters and Fuller, the Ravens have don’t have a substantial cornerback negotiation on the books until 2027 when Marlon Humphrey is set to become a free agent. Brandon Stephens’ deal is up in 2025, but he has not yet risen to the level of either Peters or Fuller. Therefore, both Peters and Fuller can ask the Ravens for a higher number than they might ask another team for, as Baltimore doesn’t have an overwhelming amount of capital allocated to their respective position. Furthermore, their respective position is one of the “core four” positions sought after league-wide (quarterback, edge rusher, left tackle, cornerback).

Regarding the kind of season these players need to produce to maximize their leverage, it may look a bit different.

In Peters’ case, step one is to play a full season. Durability was never an issue with Peters before suffering a season-ending injury last preseason. In fact, in his first six seasons, he missed only five games. In 2020, he played 85.5 percent of Baltimore’s defensive snaps. He’s a dynamic competitor and he produces more big plays than most. That combination is worth $15 million a year (his 2022 cap number). That’s not to say that as long as he’s healthy he will automatically dominate. But, if he is healthy, the odds are very much in his favor to at least make a bid for the Pro Bowl. Something in the neighborhood of 5 interceptions, 10 passes defensed, and 50 tackles would be in line with his career averages, and thus, grant him a strong case for a sizeable contract.

Even if he doesn’t quite approach those marks, his past performance combined with the fact he will have just turned 30 in January gives him leeway because of how vital his position is to the success of a defense. With a big year, Peters could very well ask for (and receive) a 5-year deal worth $60 million, which could include $35 million of guaranteed money.

Fuller’s path to a new deal will probably look a bit different. He’s a year older than Peters. While they have an identical number of career passes defensed (89), Peters has the advantage in interceptions (31-19) while Fuller has the advantage in tackles (441-299). In other words, though it may look different, they’re both constantly around the football.

Fuller will compete with Brandon Stephens for playing time as the third cornerback on the team, so opportunity will be plentiful. It remains to be seen how Mike Macdonald deploys Fuller, but in my opinion, Fuller will make his hay close to the line of scrimmage. He probably won’t be parked at the line, but my suspicion is he won’t be asked to consistently defend deep pass concepts as much as Peters. Therefore, if he can put together a season that includes 3-4 interceptions, 8-10 passes defensed, and 65-70 tackles, I think Eric DeCosta will do all he can to extend Fuller on a multi-year deal—perhaps something in the neighborhood of 3 years, $21 million, and $16 million guaranteed.

Regarding Ben Powers, his case is helped out by the fact that Bradley Bozeman is no longer on the team. If Bozeman were still a Raven, Powers’ case for a new deal in March would be average at best. But now, Powers has the chance to shine.

He’s already proven he can be trusted with an increased workload, as his snap count percentage has gone from 44 to 50 to 87 since 2019. A reliable offensive lineman is always an asset, especially in this kind of offense. Powers is still young but knows the offense well. He may even start at left guard (opposite Kevin Zeitler), which would, of course, greatly increase his negotiating leverage.

In terms of what he has to do when he gets the chance, Powers has to play smart and physical. I know that’s not reinventing the wheel, but that’s what really good offensive linemen do. Throughout his 1,388 career offensive snaps, he’s only been guilty of six (accepted) penalties. Again, he has plenty of room to grow, and is absolutely trending in the right direction. In my view, he’s plenty physical for what Greg Roman asks of his lineman.

But on top of all that, Powers possesses the most important quality a Ravens offensive lineman can possess: reliability. Lamar can trust him. As Lamar goes, so goes this team. If he can trust Powers to protect him, that will only increase Powers’ value.

So, what would a successful season look like for Powers? If he can start 15 games, allow less than five pressures, commit less than three penalties, and block runs in his direction that net over 4 yards per carry, I think he’d be in line for a 4-year contract worth $24 million, including $14 million guaranteed.

If all of those potential contracts come to fruition, the Ravens will pay out a total amount of $19 million per year to those three players (on average). That’s incredible value, not only for the player, but it won’t break the bank for the team.

To navigate personnel compensation like that and end up with an amicable result is extremely hard to do, let alone in a year when you’re also negotiating the biggest contract in franchise history.

Thankfully, this is the exact kind of situation the Ravens front office thrives on.