The Baltimore Orioles sure picked an intriguing time to begin a winning streak.
The Orioles have won their last eight games, slingshotting them into the playoff race with a 43-44 record that puts them two games out of a wild card spot.
This winning streak coming in July seems like it could certainly complicate what seemed like another year of selling at the deadline.
So, what should the Orioles do in a season where the rebuild now seems like it could be ahead of schedule? Here’s what I think.
First of all, I firmly believe this organization should let Trey Mancini end the year in Baltimore for the simple fact that he is more valuable to this team than to any other team.
Mancini is the longest-tenured Oriole on the roster after making his debut as a September call-up in 2016 and is both a fan favorite and a team leader. Oh, and on top of that, he also inspired everyone by beating colon cancer and returning to the team after missing all of the shortened 2020 season. Mancini endured the 2018 firesale and 100-loss seasons in both 2019 and 2021. He deserves the chance to stay on an Orioles team that should be playing meaningful baseball in the second half for the first time since 2017.
While the argument for keeping Mancini based on sentimentality is easy, Mancini should also stay an Oriole because his trade value isn’t high enough to justify parting with someone that meaningful to the team.
Mancini is defensively limited and can only reasonably be expected to play first base or be the designated hitter. The Orioles have stuck him in a corner outfield spot 11 times this year and it’s pretty clear that he’s not especially comfortable out there after only playing 1B or DH in 2021. Any playoff contender trusting Mancini in a corner outfield spot in a playoff game would almost certainly be playing with fire.
Additionally, while Mancini is a fine overall hitter, his power is somewhat lacking for someone who is a 1B/DH. Mancini’s iso power, which is a stat that uses batting average and slugging percentage to better measure someone’s raw power, sits at .137. To put that figure in context, he ranks 10th out 12 hitters with at least 25 games at DH and 300 plate appearances this year and 21st out of 23 hitters when it comes to 25 games at 1B with 300 PAs this year.
Mancini would certainly help raise the floor for a contending lineup, but he hasn’t been providing enough power this year relative to the expectations for a 1B/DH to generate a package that’d bring back anything especially noteworthy.
While Mancini’s underwhelming power isn’t exactly ideal, he still contributes to this team’s lineup by leading the Orioles in both batting average and on-base percentage while only trailing Ryan Mountcastle in OPS.
As both a hitter and a person, Mancini will mean more to the Orioles than he ever will to someone like the New York Mets. Keep him.
In addition to Mancini, I’d leave the bullpen’s core completely intact. There’s no emotional attachment to anyone in the bullpen like Mancini, but it’s still a unit that should be left alone because it has the 5th-best bullpen ERA in the sport.
Even after a dicey three-game stretch against the Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers, Jorge Lopez still owns an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP under 1.00 to go along with 16 saves. Besides Lopez, just three other pitchers across baseball have an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP under 1.00 with double-digit saves. Lopez has been excellent at not allowing runs or baserunners in high-leverage situations and that’s why he’s going to the All-Star Game.
I’d also expect Felix Bautista to be a hot commodity, but it’d be especially silly to trade a rookie reliever who can throw 100 MPH with an ERA below 2.00.
The argument for trading players like Lopez or Bautista is that relievers are incredibly volatile from year-to-year and it’d be reasonable to assume both of them could be worse in 2023, so why not sell high?
This is a reasonable thought process and I fully agree that relievers are volatile. However, my counterargument is that we’ve reached the point of this rebuild where the major league roster should take priority over adding more prospect depth. Selling high on Lopez and Bautista might help the 2024 Orioles, but the 2022 Orioles are trying to make the playoffs right now.
So, I’m not moving Mancini and I’m not moving Lopez, but I am much more open to bidding farewell to Anthony Santander.
The biggest reason I’m fine with moving on from Santander is that Kyle Stowers certainly seems ready to get regular at-bats in the majors.
In 2021, Stowers was the breakout star of the farm system, starting the year in high-A Aberdeen and ending it with the AAA Norfolk Tides after hitting 27 homers across 124 games and producing an OPS just barely below .900 across three levels. After announcing his presence in 2021, he’s maintained his power this year with a .522 slugging percentage thanks to 15 homers in 68 games. Perhaps most notably, he’s also reduced in his strikeouts. After striking out in 34.4 percent of his PAs in Norfolk last year, he’s trimmed his strikeout rate down to 23.4 percent this year.
There’s always the chance that Stowers could struggle to hit while the Orioles are playing important games but in this instance, I’m willing to accept a potential downgrade to the current roster in exchange for promoting someone who deserves the chance to be a regular in a major league lineup.
I’m also fine with moving on from Santander because he offers less as an outfielder than Cedric Mullins or Austin Hays. Mullins has elite range and should be able to steal 30 bases again this year Meanwhile, Hays also provides defensive value thanks to having the range of a centerfielder while playing a corner outfield spot on top of having one of the strongest arms in the sport. Santander’s power is respectable for a corner outfielder but there’s just nothing noteworthy when it comes to his defense or baserunning that makes him feel like a franchise cornerstone.
I’ll confess that predicting the return Santander would get is above my paygrade, but I think we can reasonably assume the prospects will be second-tier players who definitely aren’t in the top 100 but would still provide some useful depth for the farm system. If I had to guess, I’d assume the best prospect they get in return for Santader would be ranked around 15th in Baltimore’s strong farm system.
In addition to Santander, I think the Orioles should look into finding modest upgrades to the pitching without derailing the core parts of the farm system. I’m not demanding a Luis Castillo, but they still need to do something. This can be accomplished by looking at older players on one-year deals playing for teams that should be selling.
When it comes to starting pitching, there is one person who perfectly fits my criteria: the 33-year-old Jose Quintana of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Quintana owns a 3.59 ERA this year and would provide added stability to an Orioles rotation that seems pretty shaky even with the team just one game below .500.
The Pirates are 37-50, so they have very little incentive to hold on to a veteran starter on a one-year deal who will not be leading them to the playoffs. As such, that means they won’t exactly be demanding Gunnar Henderson from Baltimore. Quintana will most likely be in demand for several contenders, so the Orioles might have to give away an intriguing second-tier prospect to beat out other teams but I’d consider it a move worth making for a rotation that only has Jordan Lyles as a trusty veteran.
As for the relievers, the Orioles should explore a reunion with an old friend and see what the Chicago Cubs want for Mychal Givens. He hasn’t exactly been dominant with a 3.15 ERA and 1.311 WHIP but he’d still give the Orioles another pitcher they can trust in high leverage spots while giving people like Lopez and Bautista more chances to rest.
While Givens is an easy person to highlight because of he was already an Oriole, he’s hardly the only option worth exploring when it comes to older relievers who should be cheap. Alex Colome has a 2.73 ERA while calling Coors Field his home and if the Orioles want another Cubs reliever, David Robertson would give the bullpen both a 2.10 ERA and an Olympic silver medal.
It also seems like a no-brainer for the Orioles to look into adding a second trusty left-handed reliever to join Cionel Perez. Steven Okert of the Miami Marlins owns a 2.51 ERA with a 1.081 WHIP and Detroit Tigers reliever Andrew Chafin has allowed just one homer in 25.2 innings on his way to a 2.45 ERA this year.
I also want to note that it feels pretty easy to shrug off letting go of some second-tier prospects to moderately upgrade the major league roster when the Orioles are going to be taking five players in the first 100 picks of this year’s MLB draft. On top of the #1 overall pick, they’ll have picks #33, #42, #67 and #81. It shouldn’t be hard to upgrade the major league roster without any major dent to the farm system’s depth when there will be five notable reinforcements showing up later this year in Delmarva.
With my plan, the Orioles can both try to win this year and leave the important parts of their farm system unharmed. So, why not give it a shot?
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).