NFL Futures

At the onset of training camp, every team is on level ground. Certain circumstances may vary, but the records and goals are the same.

For a select few, their trajectory from that point looks different. They have the pieces in place to compete now and for years to come. Head coach, quarterback, key defensive playmakers, cohesive front office, and a supportive owner. Those are the key components to a successful pro football franchise.

No team has a perfect setup from which to work. Every club will have obstacles to navigate yearly, if not daily, which of course have a direct impact on their success. As is often said about close games, the team that makes the least mistakes usually wins—not necessarily the most talented or most experienced.

Forecasting a team’s future success is all a matter of probability. However, that’s essentially the main directive of a general manager and their staff—to set the team up for the long haul. To that end, ESPN recently published an article ranking teams and their potential for success over the next three years. The panels rating system was as follows:

“each team’s quarterback situation, remaining (non-QB) roster, drafting ability, front office and coaching using this scale:

• 100: A+ (Elite)
• 90: A (Great)
• 80: B (Very good)
• 70: C (Average)
• 60: D (Very bad)
• 50 and below: F (Disastrous)”

The Bills came in at No. 1 with a score of 90.4. The Ravens ranked 7th.

This is not the first time I’ve disagreed with ESPN and their analysts. But I thought the exercise was an interesting one, so I produced a rating system of my own.

In my rankings, I’m looking at the following:

• Starting quarterback (leadership, athleticism, passing, experience, durability)
• Offensive line (cohesion)
• Pass rush (depth)
• Dominance in turnover ratio
• Veteran coaching
• Savvy front office
• Supportive ownership

Using those criteria, here are my Top 10 teams that are most set up for success over the next five years.

T-1. Chiefs, Ravens

Average score: 8.57

Best attribute:

• Chiefs: starting quarterback, veteran coaching, supportive ownership (10)
• Ravens: veteran coaching, supportive ownership (10)

Analysis

• Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, for my money, is the best player in football. He’s in his prime, rarely has an off game, and continues to make plays that leaves the audience dumbfounded. He has exceptional financial security, so that would-be burden is all taken care of. Losing Tyreek Hill will hurt, but I think he will be great with whoever his pass catchers are. Besides, his coach is a lock for the Hall of Fame and the Chiefs ownership has proven they will do what it takes to put a Super Bowl roster together.
• Ravens: As he enters his 15th season as an NFL head coach, John Harbaugh is at the helm of one of the most talented rosters he’s had in Baltimore. He’s withstood key coaches departures (Matt Weis to Michigan, Bobby Engram to Wisconsin) and has maintained continuity among his staff. That’s important to remember, because if a head coach can steady the ship when other coaches leave and maintain focus and motivation amongst players, which ensures optimum performance. That starts from the top. Being a good owner isn’t just about approving large contracts. It’s about empowering your staff and exercising servant leadership. Why do you think the Ravens and Steelers win so much? It’s not a coincidence that those two franchises have an exceptional organization structure. Add a contract renewal for Lamar Jackson, add it’s going be hard for any team to consistently finish better than Baltimore in the immediate future.

3. Steelers

Average score: 8.50

Best attribute: pass rush, veteran coaching, supportive ownership (10)

Analysis: As far as defensive players go, Aaron Donald is No. 1 and T.J. Watt is No. 1A. He’s red hot and shows no signs of slowing down. The entire Steelers defensive unit is approaching historical marks. Pittsburgh has led the league in sacks for the last five years running. Since 2017, they recorded 273 sacks, an average of 3.3 sacks every game for five years. That kind of success can’t be faked and doesn’t go away easily. Like the Chiefs and Ravens, the Steelers (and Eagles) are on my Mt. Rushmore of best NFL front office and ownership group. They’re simultaneously wise and on the cutting edge. They’re shrewd and perceptive. The only thing that could hold this team back from entering another phase of dominance is their quarterback situation. However, if Kenny Pickett can even rise to an above average level, the rest of the league will be put on notice.

4. Bills

Average score: 8.43

Best attribute: starting quarterback, pass rush (9)

Analysis: Josh Allen, I was wrong about you. I wasn’t sure you’d be a success in the league, but you’ve proven me wrong in very short order. Allen continues to improve, as does the Bills roster. The direction the team is taking isn’t in question. The objective is clear: surround Allen with talent and assemble a relentless, ball-hawking defense at every level. Even if the Bills didn’t add Von Miller, I’d say there were on the short list to be Super Bowl favorites. Now, they are the favorite. In that football-crazed town and under the direction of an elite football man in Sean McDermott, I’d say the best chance opponents have of beating the Bills over the next few years is for the Bills to beat themselves, and that won’t happen often. The prospect of facing a Bills team in Buffalo as they’re coming off a bye in mid-January is a bleak but real one for the rest of the AFC.

5. Chargers

Average score: 8.07

Best attribute: starting quarterback, pass rush (9)

Analysis: As good as Josh Allen is, Justin Herbert is right there with him. The 6-foot-6, 237-pound    star is just getting going. His TD/INT numbers (passing and rushing) are right around 40/15 per season. He can make any throw and is cerebral beyond his years. They have bookend pass rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on defense, to go along with top-free agent recruit cornerback J.C. Jackson, and Defensive Player of the Year candidate Derwin James. The Chargers also have the best young lineman in football protecting Herbert’s blind side in Rashawn Slater. They could very well be the NFL’s next dynasty.

6. 49ers

Average score: 7.93

Best attribute: pass rush, veteran coaching, supportive ownership (8.5)

Analysis: The 49ers would probably be higher on this list if they didn’t play in such a demanding division. That said, it looks like their massive investment in Trey Lance is beginning to pay off. If he’s what they think he will be, they will be competitive in any game they play, and that is really all a coach can ask for. Still with Trent Williams at left tackle, George Kittle at tight end, Deebo Samuel at wideout, and Eli Mitchell at running back, San Francisco has a star at every position on offense. Their defense is no different. They are a hungry, athletic, smart group, top to bottom, led by defensive end Nick Bosa, inside linebacker Fred Warner (both of whom are less than 26 years of age) and safety Jimmie Ward. The 49ers fortune doesn’t stop there, as Kyle Shanahan is an excellent head coach, who’s unique ability to deploy his intellect while regulating emotion has helped San Francisco compile a postseason record of 4-2 over the last three seasons. Now, they have a clear direction at quarterback and no real weak spot on the roster. Good luck against them.

T-7. Eagles, Packers

Average score: 7.86

Best attribute

• Eagles: savvy front office, supportive ownership (10)
• Packers: starting quarterback, supportive ownership (10)

Analysis

• Eagles: Think the Steelers. Really, really good defensive front, a young quarterback that looks good but needs to prove himself this year, and a top-tier owner/general manager combination. Unlike the Steelers though, the Eagles are set up to potentially run their division for the next few years. Adding A.J. Brown was big, as Devonta Smith was already set to become a No. 1 receiver in his own right. If Jalen Hurts can limit turnovers, I believe his talent and football I.Q. will do the rest. If the Eagles were a stock, this would be the perfect time to buy.
• Packers: As long as they have Aaron Rodgers, the Packers will be a threat. Honestly, I’m not thrilled with the rest of their roster, although Christian Watson was my favorite player in this past draft. I think Aaron Rodgers retires a Packer, and these next five years could be his last in the league. That said, don’t think he will go quietly. Matt LaFleur is the x-factor in this equation. He’s 39-10 in his first three years in charge of the Packers. I don’t care who you are—that’s impressive. If he can continue on this path, Green Bay figures to withstand the eventual loss of Rodgers, as wild as that seems. Remember the common factors shared between Kansas City, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. Green Bay is in a similar situation, and in a much less competitive division.

9. Dolphins

Average score: 7.64

Best attribute: pass rush (8.5)

Analysis: Mike Macdonald may be my favorite offseason acquisition of any team. He’s confident, intentional, and exactly what this franchise needed. Miami also grabs Tyreek Hill in free agency and has another year of Jalan Phillips rushing off the edge, who will be supported by All-Pro cornerback Xavien Howard. Tua Tagovailoa will make a big leap this year in my opinion. Last year with the Dolphins was a you know what show. This year, players seem to truly believe. They remind me of the 49ers: led by a brilliant offensive-minded coach and a young, criticized, but very talented quarterback. Their go-to pass weapon can do it all, they have a strong stable of running backs, a dominant left tackle, a sack machine at edge rusher and a very good defensive backfield. With the Bills being so good and the Patriots still being coached by Bill Belichick, the Dolphins will fly under the radar, but not for long.

10. Bengals

Average score: 7.21

Best attribute: starting quarterback (8)

Analysis: There’s a lot to like about Cincinnati this year. They’re loaded on offense. However, I don’t like to “invest” in teams that lose the Super Bowl, especially if such success comes to such a young team. Don’t forget, while the Bengals did win a lot last year, they struggled to do so. I acknowledge they’re very talented, but I can’t say I believe they will keep it together and continue to grow over the near future.

To finish, I wanted to name my favorite selection for each category:

• Starting quarterback: Patrick Mahomes
• Offensive line: Chargers
• Pass rush: Steelers
• Dominance in turnover ratio: Bills
• Veteran coaching: Ravens
• Savvy front office: Ravens
• Supportive ownership: Ravens

Who makes your list? Let us know!