Based on the current roster, I would like to see the team assembled as follows:
Guthrie, Uehara, Olson, Liz, Albers
Sherrill
Ray
Johnson
Walker
Sarfate
Hendrickson
Penn
*Baez traded or cut in ST.
Roberts 2nd
Jones CF
Markakis RF
Huff 1st
Mora 3rd
Scott LF/DH
Wieters C
Reimold DH/LF
Izturis SS
Backup Catcher (hopefully Zaun), Freel, Montanez, Salazar
If that is the everyday team (with Wieters up by mid April), I will be somewhat content… After 75 innings (each) at AAA, I would like to Bergesen, and Hernandez join the O’s bullpen. I want Tillman to have a legit chance to join the rotation by August… which after 135 productive AA innings in 2008, should be possible. I want Matusz to start at AA, or at least be there by late May, and have 2-3 September starts… making him an option for the 2010 rotation.
What I do not want to see happening, is Hendrickson be given a spot in the rotation… do not want the O’s to sign a Redding… I will be infuriated if the O’s let go of 24 year-old Hayden Penn in ST… especially if it is favor of Baez, because they do not want to eat Baez’ salary. I do not see them giving Reimold a chance to make the ML team… I see them putting him in Norfolk, and I just disagree with the notion that is the best use of time.
I could see them keeping Wieters in AAA until June, which would be dissapointing…. While an occassional spot start would be liveable… any regular consistent innings giving to Waters, Simon, Bass would be disgusting to me.
Thoughts:
1) I understand that is 3 question marks in the rotation… but they represent the best combination of age, talent and minor league performance… they all have the ability to be part of the future… giving them the most innings and experience possible this year, and finding more about them, is the best thing that can be accomplished this year. Whether they are likely to perform or not, is really not the point. I actually like the upside of that rotation, but it is quite posible, and probably likely they would be among the worst in the AL. Again, does not concern me.. You did not sign the best available difference making talent… so go with youth.
2) Reimold has had 693 AA at-bats, in which he has produced 201 hits, 44 doubles, 3 triples, 36 homers, 118 rbi, 117 runs, 80 walks, 129 k’s, 290 baa, 880ish OPSHe produced in the AFL… you have an opportunity to put in him the everyday lineup, in a season you do not expect to do anything… really nothing to gain with him going to AAA.
3) Freel has played 416 professional games at 2nd, and 71 at SS… Salazar has played 275 professional games at SS, and 181 at 2nd. In place of Izturis, they should be able to backup SS once a week, and in case of injury… hold the position down for a day or two, before any internal promotion. Montanez should be the 4th OF…
4) I personally would like to see Roberts extended (if possible) for 3 years, $39M. If you did not trade him last year, when he had two years left on his deal… and his value was higher… I have a hard time believing you are going to get offered a package you value higher now. If you can not extend him, I would probably be more inclined to trade him vs taking the draft picks.
5) While the rotation has obvious questions… the bullpen is pretty strong… the bench can be much improved vs the 3man abomination they used in 2008… and even with expected regression from Huff and Mora… the everyday lineup would be pretty solid… Jones in his 2nd year will be improved… Wieters will out-produce Hernandez…. Reimold would out-produce Millar’s 2008… an as poor as SS was in 2008, even Izturis will be a boost.
6) If Mora falls back like I expect him to… and Snyder has been moved to 3rd at Bowie, and produces (800+ OPS) through July… I would make Snyder the everyday 3rd baseman in Baltimore to start August… with Mora pushed to Super UTI. That way, Snyder will have had two months of regular ML at-bats, and be that much more likely to produce going into 2010.
In the AL East, that team is clearly still going to take their lumps…. But I would think that roster could win 72-75 games, and more importantly – be much better prepared for 2010 then I currently expect them to be.
I think I have this win total just about right… depending on how they configure the roster…
Meaning, if there are no real moves… and what currently exists in the organization will comprise the roster… the roster configuration will decide how many games they win.
Examples:
A) Does Wieters start at C Opening Day (or April 22nd at a minimum) or does he come up in June?
B) Is Reimold in the everyday lineup at either DH or LF, or do the O’s send him to Norfolk?
C) Do the O’s go with a 4 man bench that can contribute – Freel, Montanez, Salazar, backup catcher…. or do the O’s go with a 3 man bench like they did in 2008, that severely handicaps them… and tires them out down the stretch?
D) Do the O’s go with a rotation with some upside in Guthrie, Uhera, Olson, Liz, Albers…. or do they add rejects like Redding, and Hendrickson (to the regular rotation)… or consider Waters, Simon, and Bass?
E) Do the O’s go with a bullpen of Sherrill, Ray, Johnson, Walker, Sarfate, Hendrickson, Penn.. or do they keep Baez because of his salary?
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Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.