College Football 2022 – ACC Coastal Breakdown

The ACC Coastal has been the most wide-open division in college football the past decade. It has lacked a dominant power like the Atlantic Division’s Clemson. In fact, from 2013 to 2019 all seven teams won a division title, and the last repeat winner was Virginia Tech in 2010-11. The field is probably limited to two or three likely winners this season, but there is no clear front-runner. Here are my thoughts with teams listed in my predicted order of finish.

Miami – Mario Cristobal’s return to his roots has fueled a buzz around the Hurricane program that, outside a 10-win season in 2017, has not been felt in nearly two decades. The excitement is understandable. Cristobal was an offensive lineman on two national championship winning teams in Miami’s 80s-90s heyday. As the head coach at Oregon, he won two conference titles and a Rose Bowl while recruiting in Top 10 territory. Meanwhile, Miami is investing in the football program like never before. Cristobal was given the ACC’s highest salary pool for assistants (and he hired an excellent staff), there is a $100 million facility upgrade coming, and Miami is among the leaders in NIL opportunities thanks to billionaire booster John Ruiz. While the future looks bright in Coral Gables, there are also some high expectations for the present, despite significant roster turnover.

Another reason for optimism is quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Van Dyke took over for injured D’Eriq King in Week 4 last season and led the ‘Canes to a 6-3 record, 5-1 in the final six games. Van Dyke’s growth in his second season as a starter may well come down to his improvement in throwing short-to-intermediate passes. He throws a great deep ball, but defenses are more likely to take that away from him now and force him to go shorter. It would greatly help if they could run the ball better too; they averaged an ACC-low 3.69 yards per cary last season. Running the ball has always been a point of emphasis for Cristobal and offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. It helps that they return four starting offensive linemen, including future NFL pick LT Zion Nelson and All-ACC RG DJ Scaife. The Hurricanes have talent at the running back position, though not a whole lot of returning production. They also don’t return much production at wide receiver, and will likely have to rely heavily on transfers, as well as 5th-year TE Will Mallory.

The defensive front-seven will have a lot of new faces, with only two starters returning. This might not be a bad thing, as Pro Football Focus rated Miami 128th last season in tackling. Only starting DT Jared Harrison-Hunte returns, while five transfer portal additions and 5-star freshman Leonard Taylor will compete to round out the defensive line rotation. LB Corey Flagg Jr. is the leading returning tackler. The secondary is by far Miami’s most experienced unit. Four starters return on the back-end, and the addition of West Virginia transfer CB Daryl Porter Jr. makes the room even stronger.

Pitt – Pitt didn’t just win their first conference title since they were Big East champions in 2009. They won the most games last season (11) since Dan Marino was the starting quarterback. The Panthers are a solid pick by many to at least repeat as Coastal Division champions despite the loss of QB Kenny Pickett to the NFL and WR Jordan Addison to USC. The departure of Addison in particular stung, as the ’21 Biletnikoff-winner went through all of spring practice, then exited after what head coach Pat Narduzzi claims was tampering on USC’s part. Still, the core of the team that returns is very good.

While USC taketh, USC giveth as well in the form of transfer QB Kedon Slovis. The former Pac-12 Freshman of the Year, Slovis will still have WR Jared Wayne, second only to Addison in receiving production last season, as a primary target. Akron transfer Konata Mumpfield should be a reliable target as well. Pitt should also be able to lean more heavily on the running game thanks to the return of all five starting offensive linemen plus all three leading rushers from what was a running-back-by-committee unit in ‘21. That Narduzzi replaced offensive coordinator Mark Whipple with Frank Cignetti Jr., previously at Boston College, makes it even more likely the offense will skew more towards the run.

The strength of the Pitt defense begins up front. Were it not for Clemson, the Panthers would easily boast the best defensive line in the conference, and do have one of the best in the entire country. The unit is the main reason the Panthers ranked 2nd nationally in sacks per game (3.9), 3rd in tackles for loss per game (8.1) and 6th in rushing defense (89.2 yards per game). The entire front returns led by All-American DT Calijah Kancey and DEs Deslin Alexander and Habakkuk Baldonado. MLB SirVocea Dennis returns, but who will flank him is still a question mark. Despite all the great numbers Pitt’s defensive line racked up, they still ranked just 39th in the country (5th in the ACC) in yards per game allowed and 42nd (4th in the ACC) in points per game allowed. When the front line could not get to the quarterback, the defense allowed 8.2 yards per pass attempt, 98th in the country. That disparity largely rests with a secondary that had its share of struggles. They return three starters and the hope is that another year of experience will yield better results.

North Carolina – Few teams that garnered high preseason accolades in 2021 (10th in the preseason AP poll, 9th in the Coaches) ended up a bigger disappointment than the Tar Heels. The 6-7 finish was a step backward in coach Mack Brown’s building plans. That it happened with a record-setting quarterback who is now in the NFL, Sam Howell, makes it a little tougher to swallow. Still, there is plenty of optimism in Chapel Hill that good things lie ahead. Three straight Top 15 recruiting classes have laid a foundation of talent that should start bearing results. But Brown indicated that tightening up on the little things that slipped last season, causing a lot of inconsistency, is priority one.

The obvious first step to getting back on track is figuring out how to replace Howell. That task will fall to one, or perhaps both, of Jacolby Criswell or Drake Maye. Each has their own set of abilities, so offensive coordinator Phil Longo has hinted it’s possible he could go with two quarterbacks if that’s the best solution. Whichever one is calling signals, he’ll have two great receivers to throw to, but little beyond that in terms of proven production. Josh Downs and Antoine Green. The two combined for nearly 2,000 of their 3,300 receiving yards last season. Only one other WR had more than 100 yards on the season, Justin Olson who had 143 total yards. Junior TE Kamari Morales’ continued development should help as well. THe offnesive line returns just two starters. The unit was very good at run blocking, but must improve their pass-protection for the young QBs; they allowed a sack, hit, or hurry on 32.2 of dropbacks, 74th in the country. Their two leading rushers, RB Ty Chandler (1,092 yards) and Howell (828 yards) are gone. That leaves just 29% of ‘21s rushing production returning, led by RB British Brooks.

Last season’s defense was not good; 94th in the country in yards allowed per game (418) and 105th in points allowed (32.08). The good news is they do return a lot of starters, so the hope is that experience translates to improvement. One big change is that Brown brought former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik out of retirement. Up front they are led by DT Myles Murphy, who earned 2nd Team All-ACC honors last year. As Chizik prefers frequent rotations on his defensive line, a lot of those younger players from the Top 15 recruiting classes will get their chance, like 5-star tackles Keyshawn Silver and Travis Shaw. This unit must do better at stopping the run on first down; they allowed 5.24 yards per rush on first down last season, 105th in FBS. The linebackers should be solid led by last season’s leading tackler Cedric Gray. Chizik didn’t get a great look at the secondary in the spring due to injuries, but the unit returns a good amount of experience led by CB Tony Grimes, who should be an NFL pick in ’23.

Virginia – If you like lots of scoring with your football, the Cavaliers were a fun watch last year. They put up lots of points, and returned the favor to their opponents. It was uncharacteristic for then-head coach Bronco Mendenhall to have a defense that struggled so badly. The bigger surprise was when he announced he was stepping down at the end of season. Enter Tony Elliott, an 11-year offensive assistant on Dabo Swinney’s staff at Clemson. That the territory was familiar for Elliott was a big selling point, as he had been wooed by several schools over the years but held out for what he thought was his best opportunity. He takes over a team that returns plenty of potential on one side of the ball, and needs an overhaul on the other.

Elliott scored one big early win when he helped sell QB Brennan Armstrong on putting off the NFL for a year to return. Armstrong owns single-season school records for passing yards and touchdowns, and accounted for 472 yards per game of offense last season, second-most in the country. Armstrong plays a lot of “street ball” that Elliott hopes to reign in some without taking away his QB’s creativity. They’ll have the benefit of one of the most loaded wide receiver rooms in the country, led by 1st Team All-ACC Dontayvion Wicks (57 rec/1,203 yards/9 TDs). They’ll also welcome back Lavel Davis, who missed 2021 with an injury but led the ACC with 25.7 yards per catch in 2020. The offensive line must be better after giving up 3.3 sacks per game last year, 119th in FBS, and averaging the fewest yards per game rushing in the ACC (127.7 ypg). They’ll have to do it with no returning starters, as their top six linemen are gone, four of them lost to transfer. The running game doesn’t return much production either, beyond Armstrong. Mike Hollins (213 yards, 4.3 per carry), figures to be the lead back.

The 466 yards allowed per game by the Cavalier defense last season was 123rd in the country and their 31.83 points per game was 104th. The only thing that saved them from the lowest of lows is being in the same conference as Duke (more on that later). Seeing that a restructuring was necessary, Elliott hired defensive coordinator John Rudzinski from Air Force, who ranked 4th in the country in yards allowed last season. Still, Elliott wants to focus on fundamentals over scheme. They do have some decent returning pieces, such as linebacker Nick Jackson who led the ACC in tackles last year (117). Cornerback Anthony Johnson, who led the team with 3 interceptions, is also back. Like many teams in need of an overhaul, the Cavaliers worked the transfer portal, where as many as four newcomers figure to fill out a defensive line rotation that was among the nations worst, according to Pro Football Focus, in yards allowed both before and after first contact.

Virginia Tech -New head coach Brent Pry looks to be facing a multi-year rebuild in Blacksburg. What was once one of the most respected programs in the game endured three losing seasons in the previous four years. Attrition and years of subpar recruiting left behind a roster that looks short on both top-tier talent and depth. Pry has already started the build by re-establishing long-held relationships on the recruiting trail. The Hokies sustained years of success by mining the Tidewater region of Virginia, and they’ll need to lock that area down once again to return to prominence. For now though, Hokies fans might want to temper expectations and remain patient.

The offense was already bottom-tier in the ACC, and what little production there was has largely moved on. The Hokies were 98th in the country in yards gained and 97th in points scored. They lost their starting quarterback, the top two receivers, top two rushers, and 3 starting offensive linemen. Tyler Bowen, who was once viewed a rising star as tight ends coach at Maryland and Penn State, will take over the offense following a difficult season on Urban Meyer’s Jacksonville Jaguars staff in ’21. His quarterback would appear to be Marshall transfer Grant Wells, who in two seasons was mostly boom-or-bust; he threw 34 touchdowns but also had 22 interceptions. Kaleb Smith is the top returning wide receiver and looked good in the spring. TE’s Nick Gallo and Drake DeIuliis should also add a pair of reliable targets. RB Malachi Thomas (440 yards, three TDs in ’21) will probably be the lead back. Building the offensive line will be a time-consuming process, but Pry pulled off a huge coup when he lured Wisconsin OL coach Joe Rudolph to join his staff.

The defense looks a little more promising, and should be fundamentally sound given it’s Pry’s specialty. MLB Dax Hollifield, who led the team in tackles (92), tackles for loss (9) and sacks (4.5) last year, is back and will be the leader and on-field signal-caller. The secondary returns a lot of experience in safeties Chamarri Conner and Nasir Peoples, along with cornerbacks Armani Chatman, Dorian Strong and Brion Murray. The defensive line is much less certain. DE TyJuan Garbutt and DT Norell Pollard return as starters, but who plays beside them and rotates in for depth is a huge question. Rushing the passer, long a strong suit at Virginia Tech, fell off in recent years and was especially poor in ’21 (25 sack, 80th in FBS). A playmaker will need to emerge somewhere from a relatively untested front line.

Georgia Tech – Perhaps no coach has a hotter seat in the country than Tech’s Geoff Collins. He’s made all the hallmark moves of a coach looking to make his final stand: an overhaul of both his staff and the roster (though neither of those entirely by choice). Just 9-25 in his first three seasons, he will have to find a way to engineer a breakthrough in ’22 despite a brutal schedule that features annual cross-division rival Clemson and a non-conference gauntlet of Ole Miss, UCF and in-state rival Georgia. Compounding the troubles is Tech lost by far their best player, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, to Alabama via the transfer portal. Last season’s ending doesn’t leave much reason for optimism they can rebound against such elite competition; in their final two games against Notre Dame and Georgia the Yellow Jackets were outscored 100-0. Ouch.

Of the eight new coaches on the staff five are on offense. Offensive Coordinator Chip long, co-coordinator Jim Chaney, and former Heisman-winning QB coach Chris Weinke have their work cut out for them. Quarterback Jeff Sims is one of the few returning starters the Yellow Jackets do have going into a pivotal season. The dual-threat has shown the ability to move the ball, but he needs to stay healthy for his team to have any chance. Leading WR Malachi Carter is also back and Nate McCollum could develop into a reliable second option. How to replace Gibbs is a giant question mark that may have no answer. Letting Sims run more would seem to be obvious, but again, his injury history leaves that in question. Dontae Smith (378 yards in ’21) appears to be the top option. Only two starters return on an offensive line that struggled.

The prognosis for the defense does not look much better, with only three starters returning to a group that was 117th in the country in yards per game allowed and 110th in points allowed. While the struggles were many, perhaps none was bigger than third down: Tech allowed opponents to convert 45.2 percent (71-of-157) of third downs in 2021, which was 117th in the nation. Defensive coordinator Andrew Thacker attributed that largely to breakdowns in communication in the secondary, something that does not bode well for a unit that returns just one starter, CB Zamari Walton. Linebackers Charlie Walker and Ayinde Eley are the only other returning starters.

Duke – As the defensive coordinator at Texas A&M, a place where to expense is too great for football and the recent talent influx oozes everywhere, Mike Elko probably could have been patient and landed a high-end first-time head coaching job. Duke would not appear to fit the bill. Elko insists that during the interview process the university showed a commitment to football. In fairness, under predecessor David Cutcliffe they did make notable facilities investments. Is a small, private school known almost exclusively for basketball willing to go even further. Elko, at least, believes so. Given the level of rebuild facing the program, he should at least get the benefit of time.

Offensively Duke moved the ball reasonably well, racking up 417.6 yards per game, 54th in the country. Yet they only scored 22.8 points per game, just 102nd nationally. That’s a telltale sign of an offense that struggled in the red zone, and the Blue Devils were no exception. They were dead last in the country in red zone passing touchdowns (three). Their 17 red zone rushing touchdowns were little better (108th). In all, they scored on just 72.1% of red zone opportunities, 123rd nationally. The struggles came from all over the offense, but quarterback was the most visible, as it typically is. Last year’s starter, Gunner Holmberg, transferred, leaving a wide open competition to replace him. Most of their returning production is on the offensive line, with 4 of 5 starters back. The same can’t be said for playmakers, with WR Jason Calhoun the only proven option.

If the Duke offense sounds bad, then you might want to stop reading here. Last year, the Blue Devils ranked dead-last in the FBS in yards allowed per game (517.6) and third-to-last in yards per play allowed (7.1). They gave up 39.75 points a game, also third-to-last in the country. As a defensive coach, Elko might want to just toss out last year’s film and save himself the bout with heartburn. They do at least have some retuning experience in the front seven to start building on, but the secondary will feature four new starters. There’s won’t be much experience behind them either. Of the 19 defensive backs who played a defensive snap for Duke last season, 11 are no longer on the roster. Tackling was poor last season, so Elko made that a spring focus during live drills. While there is nowhere to go but up for the defense, appreciable improvement may take a couple years.