118 Games In The Books; Some Thoughts

With 118 games in the books, the Baltimore Orioles are 61-57 – just as we all expected, right?

In a game largely built around numbers and analytics; there is something greatly enjoyable about the reminder that the game is played between the lines and surprises can still happen.

Surpassing expectations is largely what made ’89, and ’12 so memorable.

2022 is more of the same.

As memorable as this year has been, the greater excitement for me is looking ahead and seeing what’s coming. This ’22 season should serve as the stepping-stone to an extended run.

Some Thoughts:

1) On our board, and on our podcast The Warehouse; I spent the last year saying I was fine if the O’s traded Mancini, and fine if they extended him. I did expect going into the off-season last year that a short-term extension would be reached. I said on the message board in the lead-up to the trade deadline (and in the aftermath of); I personally wouldn’t have traded Mancini this year – I would have just rolled with what you had, given the season the O’s were having and what I expected the return to be. That said, the return was a bit more than I anticipated, and I have no real problem with that move.

2) The Lopez deal hurt a bit more, as this ’22 team has been so largely bullpen reliant, and you were also giving up Lopez’s additional years of control. Even if you believe he will regress from his ’22 Oriole levels, I think there was good reason to anticipate him continuing to be an asset, in years the O’s anticipate contending. Again though, there was a reasonable argument for his trade and Povich is already one of the more interesting players in the talented Orioles system. Mind-over-heart says to me that Elias made the right move here.

3) In the opening above, I talked about the enjoyable reminder that games actually have to be played. You don’t just run 1000 simulations and hand out the World Series trophy. That’s true, and that’s what makes sports the best drama(s) going. Some would use this season (and ’89, and ’12) as arguments to say, “There is no reason to give up on any season. Or, hey, I know the ’18 Orioles won 47 games, and have a mediocre system, minimal analytics, poor scouting and development, don’t do anything Internationally – but there’s no reason ’19 can’t be vastly better if you try.” Okay, God bless you. Seasons like ’89, ’12, and ’22 are beloved because they are exceedingly rare. Since they are rare – but have happened – it’s fine if you chafe at anyone that says contention is ‘impossible’ for any season before a pitch is thrown. And I’ll go another step and agree that if you build a team which on paper looks like a 75 win team; you have increased the odds of that team playing up in a given year. I’ve always said there are various ways to build teams. That each team has their own set of variables. I continue to think that the way Elias & Co. elected to build the organization after taking over before the ’19 season was the right route. Others will continue to believe that building in this manner was not necessary, and there could have been more focus on at-least the ’21 Major League product, and perhaps doing more prior to this ’22 season. That’s fine. There were a lot of directions the Orioles could have gone, but they have arrived here at this destination. Where do they go from here?

4) Count me as one that was on-board with doing more prior to this ’22 season. I suggested a number of 1,and 2 year short-term deals which I didn’t think would derail the building, and I thought would make the ML product better and more competitive. I primarily wanted Alex Wood, and Eduardo Rodriguez. Was willing to give Wood 3 years, and Rodriguez 4. Wood has been fine, but pretty much like Lyles. Rodriguez has had a rough go with it with the Tigers, is hurt, and what seemed like a reasonable deal – now seems like a lot of owed money. There were cheaper 1 year options I suggested as well like Zach Davies, and Michael Pineda. Davies has been okay, Pineda not so much. Bottomline is that the Orioles thought they had the depth and development to get through this year without such additions; and to this point they’ve been proven correct.

5) I was excited about the wall moving back in Left and thought it would it help the pitching – at-least in-terms of allowing less homers. (I also thought it would make for a more interesting product vs. the three true outcome era of homer, walk, k. More balls in play, more relays, etc.). The difference has exceeded my expectations. The O’s have a 3.40 era at home, and a 4.40 road era. Talk about being comfortable in the friendly confines of home! Clearly the pitching staff has embraced the teachings of Chris Holt and Darren Holmes. To a man, they’ve thrown more strikes and nibbled less. But the wall has to get credit as well. The pitchers obviously feel better about challenging hitters more often. The cumulative team era is 3.92 tied for 16th in the Majors. It was 5.84 last year, 7 tenths of a run worse than the next worse team. Just amazing how much more competitive you can be, when you aren’t immediately taken out of games.

6) For them, I’m really enjoying the success Austin Voth, and Spencer Watkins are having. It’s not about expecting either to be a piece of the roster going forward; but just enjoying what they’re providing you right now. They’re going out and giving the O’s a chance in the games they start, and the O’s wouldn’t be in position to possibly reach the post-season without their performances to-date.

7) It’s definitely a shame that John Means, and Grayson Rodriguez got hurt. With Rodriguez, please don’t come at me with, “He hasn’t even thrown a ML pitch yet.” Yes, that’s true, but he was dominating AAA and on the verge of ascending. He wouldn’t have needed to be an immediate ace, to provide value. Seems reasonable to expect he would have been a ML average starter from Day 1, and while some days he’d look like a rookie, there would be other days where his ability flashed. He’s back working on a mound, so maybe we see him yet this year in September.

8) I’ve made no secret I’m a strong Austin Hays fan, and I said a number of times this year I think he would be the most talented all-around Oriole on the roster until Rutschman was recalled. I still believe in his ability, but ultimately performance is what matters. Yes, he’s been dealing with wrist injuries (both arms), and other nagging aliments; but he had a .566 OPS in July, and he has a .495 OPS here in August. That’s an ugly stretch over these last 124 ab’s. We will see how the rest of his year goes. Does he hit either extreme (either where this poor stretch continues, or where he again gets red hot to close out a season)? My eye tells me he’s an above-average OF. Good range, plus arm. Some stats (Outs Above Average) have him below average in both LF and RF. Other stats (UZR /150, and DRS) have him above average in LF. My current take is he’s a very usable player who does a lot of things well, but he’s also replaceable. He’s got just over 1/4 of this season left to show what he is; the O’s need him to produce.

9) The other two guys that need a current uptick performance wise are Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle. Ryan had a poor July, and he’s been below average in August. He’s hitting lefties better than RHP. He just strikes me as a guy that hits in waves. He can be red hot and hit everything, or he can get cold and struggle to barrel anything. Overall, I believe in the bat. He’ll get hot again. He’s not a star, but I don’t think he’s a problem going forward. He can be a useable / productive bat on a quality team. Especially with him making very little right now. Cedric’s ’21 season was really amazing. There’s no shame of him not being back at that level this year. But his walks are down, average is down, slugging is way down. He was elite last year. He doesn’t have to be back at those levels, but you do need him to pick it up down the stretch here. One of the biggest differences is that he has a .569 OPS vs. LHP this year, after posting a .788 mark vs. lefties last year.

10) Rutschman was everything he was advertised as. What a joy to watch. Great ab’s. Already a leader. Infectious enthusiasm. He’s the best player on the team, and he could be a monster as early as next year. He also might be the Rookie of the Year, remarkable as he’s played 30 less games than Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez.

11) I’m not sure where Felix Bautista will finish in that Rookie of the Year balloting, but the dominance he’s shown this year has been awesome to watch. Filthy is not a good enough adjective. His outing Tuesday vs. Toronto was just sick. He can be as good as he wants to be.

12) Elias trading Mancini and Lopez is one thing. There were reasonable arguments for those deals. My general take was that Elias felt the O’s could possibly reach the playoffs without them, and even with them – if they did reach the post-season, this team wasn’t quite ready to win multiple rounds. That’s fine, I respect the longer-term vision with those decisions. I’ve been frustrated by leaving Kyle Stowers at AAA since the Mancini trade though. It’s not that Stowers is a remarkable prospect. And I can even buy that despite his AAA production the O’s don’t believe he’s a finished product. That’s fine, but he has been productive at Norfolk, and he certainly looks like he could help the O’s lineup now. I’d think you’d also want to get a longer look at him here in ’22, and make sure you feel comfortable penciling him into the ’23 plans. Bring him up, put him in RF, move Santander to DH.

13) I also think Gunnar Henderson should be promoted at this point. If the playoffs weren’t a possibility, I’d say hold him back until next May whatever*, once you’ve gained the additional year of team control. Given that the O’s are 2.5 games out of the 3rd Wild Card spot; bring him up and go for it. Just like with Adley, the O’s should be looking to find a deal with Gunnar now that extends him past his arbitration years. Bring him up to play 3rd for the remainder of ’22.

*On our board, the poster ‘Mackus’ provided better clarity than I did above… “You don’t need to wait into May to gain an extra year of control.  If Gunnar isn’t on the 40-man roster, then he only needs to stay down long enough to not finish the season with 172 days of service.  What date that is will depend on the opening and closing days of the season.  Typical is in the low 180s, so you could leave him down for two weeks and then call him up and he won’t get a full year service for the season (unless he finishes top-2 ROY).”

13a) Earlier in the year, I thought Jordan Westburg would be up by July. That was proved wrong. I’d have no problem bringing him up either, and installing him at 2nd; but with Urias and Vavra already here; the O’s have options.

14) Mateo has a .957 OPS in August (55 ab’s). The athleticism is apparent to everyone. His defense has been very strong. Not just with making the occasional great play, but handling the routine which had been an issue for him entering this year. I don’t think he can do enough where I wouldn’t want the O’s to go after one of the Free Agent SS’s this off-season (Correa, Swanson, Turner, Bogaerts); but if he stays hot to finish the year – you have to at-least consider him as your SS to begin ’23.

15) The Orioles are 25-28 against the East this year. (20-56 last year.) Next year they get the benefit of playing 20 less games vs. the Division.

16) The most important aspect of DL Hall’s year, is that he’s stayed on a mound. In the Minors, 21 outings, 20 starts, 79.2 innings, 130 k’s, 66 hits. Obviously too many walks (48). A lot of Orioles fans think his future is the pen. Maybe? That’s to-be-determined. I’m just pleased he’s stayed healthy and shown his ability. I’m expecting more next year. And I do think he has a chance to help the O’s here in the remainder of ’22, working in-tandem relief.

17) Tyler Wells is getting closer to rejoining the roster. Where does he fit in when he comes back? Starting or relief? If he’s starting, someone has to make room. Maybe Kyle Bradish gets moved to pen and can try and overpower guys an inning or two at a time?

18) The Orioles need to obtain one front-end starter this off-season. Maybe that’s a Free Agent like Carlos Rodon, maybe it’s someone obtained via trade. I feel Means will be back around mid-June. Maybe that’s overly aggressive thinking on my part. Either way, you go into the off-season having to think he won’t be around. I’d like to see the O’s pick up the option on Lyles.

19) If the O’s look to pull off a larger trade this Winter, I think they can put together a very attractive trade package. I’d think it would include some mix of Stowers, Mayo, Cowser, Norby, Vavra, Prieto, and Rom.

20) In ’21 we saw Mullins rise from the abyss and destroy everything. That was awesome. Dean Kremer’s ’22 isn’t the same thing as Mullins historic year, but it’s also a great story. Kremer was a mess in the Majors and at AAA last year. He regrouped, adjusted his pitch mix, and he’s been vitally important this season. Yet the latest reminder that development is not linear, and not to immediately write guys off.