Week 1 will be a tough act to follow, but we have several noteworthy matchups this week, so here are my thoughts on four of them.
#1 Alabama @ Texas (noon ET, Fox) Line: Alabama -20, O/U 64.5
It seems odd that this will only be the 9th time these two historical programs have met on the gridiron. Furthermore, it was literally a century ago (1922) that they last played each other on a college campus. Every meeting since then has been a bowl game.
Alabama opened as a 14.5-point favorite. If that sounds too good to be true, you are not alone, as it no doubt explains why the line is now up to 20. Alabama did what you would expect Alabama to do in Week 1 against the likes of Utah State; they ran it, threw it, gave the Aggies nothing, and had their backups in by early 3rd Quarter. It’s not the sort of game we expected to learn just how good they really are. Texas, in Austin, should provide a better measuring stick. (as a footnote, it will be exactly 11 years to the day, Sept 10, 2011 at Penn State, that the Tide last played a true out of conference road game)
QB Quinn Ewers had a reasonably successful debut for the Longhorns against Louisiana-Monroe, completing 16 of 24 for 255 yards and two TDs. He also had an interception on a bad read and was off-target several times. Again, it was his college debut. It was also Louisiana-Monroe. Not Alabama. I don’t think Ewers will be up to the task at this point. Furthermore, I don’t think Texas has the personnel on defense to slow down the Tide enough to give Ewers a shot. Even at 20 points, I take ‘Bama with confidence.
My pick: Alabama -20, Alabama S/U
#24 Tennessee @ #17 Pitt (3:30pm ET, ABC) Line: Tennessee -6, O/U 66
If there are teams poised for a letdown this week after a big Week 1 win, I believe the Panthers could be one of them. Emotions were high for the long-awaited renewal of the Backyard Brawl against West Virginia. I have a hard time imagining Acrisure Stadium replicating that atmosphere for a second week in a row, despite a ranked team coming to town. The football hearts and minds of the Steel City will more likely be on the Steelers’ season opener Sunday. More importantly, there were some things I saw in the WVU game that concerned me with Pitt going forward. Mainly, their defense. 31 points and 404 yards of offense is too much to give up to the Mountaineers, and for a team with (supposedly) a great defensive line, 5.8 yards per carry is too much to give up to anyone. If they play like last week, the Panthers’ defense could be in for a long day against the Volunteers.
Speaking of the Vols, they had a pretty easy time of it against Ball State, which is to be expected. QB Hendon Hooker had a decent day, and the defense did what it should do against the likes of Ball State, until the Vols emptied the bench. If there’s one thing Tennessee could have improved on, it’s 3rd Down efficiency – they were just 5 for 13. Also, considering the opponent, they could have run the ball better than 4.3 yards per carry. So there’s things to improve upon. But I can understand the line on this one. They may not cover, but the Vols should go to 2-0 and avenge last year’s loss in the Johnny Majors Bowl.
My pick: Pitt +6, Tennessee S/U
#20 Kentucky @ #12 Florida (7:00pm ET, ESPN) Line: Florida -6, O/U 52.5
Another team that could be on Letdown Alert is Florida. After knocking off a Top 10 opponent in a game many observers expected them to lose (but not me), the Gators don’t figure to have it any easier against Kentucky. QB Anthony Richardson, in just his second start, was responsible for 274 of the offense’s 451 yards against Utah, and scored 3 of their 4 touchdowns, all on the ground. His passing numbers were efficient, if modest, as he and his teammates did most of their damage on the ground. The Gators were undoubtedly aided by a full-throated crowd of nearly 90,000, and will likely need to call on them again. They may also need their defense to play a little better – they gave up 446 total yards to the Utes, but did keep them out of the end zone on two 2nd Qtr drives deep into their territory, and of course there was the goal line stand at the end.
QB Will Levis is the engine that makes the Wildcats’ go, especially with RB Chris Rodriguez still serving a suspension for legal issues. Levis will have to help make up for the loss on the ground, something he wasn’t able to do Saturday in the 37-13 win over Miami, OH when UK rushed for just 50 yards total. Levis had -13 yards on 7 rushes, albeit four of those were actually sacks; which brings up another issue. Kentucky should not be allowing 4 sacks to the likes of Miami, OH. Defensively, the Wildcats must contain Richardson. Easier said than done. All-in-all, the Wildcats will need a much better showing than they had against the Red Hawks, who they didn’t put away until midway through the 4th Quarter. I think they can keep it close, but expecting a win in The Swamp feels like too much.
My pick: Kentucky +6, Florida S/U
#9 Baylor @ #21 BYU (10:15pm ET, ESPN) Line: BYU -4, O/U 53.5
This might be the best matchup of the day. Which begs the question: Why does it start at 10:15pm Eastern time? Especially with USC at Stanford getting the prime-time billing on ABC? C’mon, ESPN.
I discussed how I thought BYU could have a path to the CFP if they went unbeaten, thanks to several big name programs on their schedule. The Cougars didn’t get much help with that department Saturday when two of them, Notre Dame and Oregon, suffered losses. Baylor, on the other hand, looks much more like the 12-2 team from last season than the 2-7 team from 2020. The Bears only faced FCS Albany, whom they easily defeated 69-10, but they at least did exactly what you’re supposed to do against an out-matched opponent. While the offensive numbers were eye-popping (573 total yards and very efficient via the ground and the air) the 237 total yards surrendered on defense might have been even better. QB Blake Shapen was sharp – 17-20, 214 YDS, 2 TD.
The Cougars had a very impressive opening game too, and theirs was on the road against a slightly better opponent. They beat USF 50-21 in Tampa while putting up 573 yards of total offense with 312 of them on the ground (at a whopping 8.4 ypc). What makes it even more impressive is the Bulls knew they would run the ball, and loaded the box in response. It didn’t matter; BYU dominated up front. QB Jaren Hall mostly did well through the air, though he did have a pick.
I expect a very physical game on both sides. One worthy of a far better time slot than it received. I’ve touted BYU both in writing and on my podcast, and I was ready to pick them until news broke that WRs Puka Nacua and Hunter Romney will both be out with injuries. This slanted me towards Baylor, even straight up.
My pick: Baylor +4, Baylor S/U
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.