Week 2: ATS 10-6, over/under 6-10
Year to date: ATS 19-13, over/under 14-18
Steelers (1-1) at Browns (1-1), Thursday 9/22 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Browns 20, Steelers 16
ATS
Steelers +5
Total
Under 38.5
Analysis
Nick Chubb is on a roll and the Steelers defense didn’t look great against the Patriots running attack. Amari Cooper is starting to get in a groove as well. This is the AFC North, however, so I will take the points and the under.
Bills (2-0) at Dolphins (2-0), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Buffalo 28, Miami 20
ATS
Buffalo -4
Total
Under 50.5
Analysis
The point total here is very high, even for two dynamic offenses. I can’t imagine Tua Tagovailoa has the same success this week that he had last week. I like Buffalo’s pass rush to be the difference and give the Bills a key division victory.
Bengals (0-2) at Jets (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Bengals 24, Jets 21
ATS
Jets +4.5
Total
Over 43
Analysis
Joe Flacco is back, baby! The Bengals should win this one, although, as the Jets have shown the first two weeks of the season, they can hold their own against the AFC North. With Cincinnati’s troubles still apparent and New York getting 4.5 points at home, I’m taking the Bengals to win and the Jets to cover.
Raiders (0-2) at Titans (0-2), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Raiders 27, Titans 21
ATS
Raiders -1
Total
Over 46
Analysis
The way the Raiders lost their Week 2 game was heartbreaking. I actually think it’ll be good from them to get away from home. No one on the Titans looks to be able to stop Davante Adams or Darren Waller. This looks like a really good spot for the Raiders to right a lot of wrongs and get their first win of the season.
Saints (1-1) at Panthers (0-2), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Saints 27, Panthers 20
ATS
Saints -3
Total
Over 40.5
Analysis
Carolina might be the worst team in football. Through two games, Baker Mayfield is averaging 190 passing yards, 53.8 completion percentage, and a quarterback rating of 79.6 per game. The Saints should be able to make enough plays on offense to get the lead early, keep it, and force Mayfield into disadvantageous passing situations.
Ravens (1-1) at Patriots (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Ravens 23, Patriots 20
ATS
Patriots +3
Total
Over 43
Analysis
My first instinct was to pick the Ravens winning, 23-20. I feel like this game will be close, as I think the Patriots keep games close but ultimately lose them in 2022. When in doubt of what to pick vs. the spread and for the point total, I’ll take the points and go over. Both teams need to win to keep pace in their respective divisions.
Lions (1-1) at Vikings (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Vikings 38, Lions 22
ATS
Vikings -7
Total
Over 52.5
Analysis
I’m happy for the Lions getting their first win, but even if Jeff Okudah was healthy (exited both games due to cramps), I would take the Vikings and lay the points. Quite simply, I don’t see any defensive back in football matching up with Justin Jefferson this year.
Eagles (2-0) at Commanders (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Eagles 28, Commanders 21
ATS
Eagles -4
Total
Under 50
Analysis
This may not be as lopsided of a game as it seems on the surface. The Commanders always play tough at home. The last two times they’ve hosted Philadelphia, Washington is 1-1 and has a combined scoring edge of 43-37. Jalen Hurts didn’t play in the 2020 game, and struggled last year struggled, going 17-for-26 for 214 yards. It seems obvious that the Eagles are the better team, and I think they win and cover, but all signs point to this being a close contest at the end.
Chiefs (2-0) at Colts (0-1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Chiefs 27, Colts 13
ATS
Chiefs -6.5
Total
Under 49.5
Analysis
If the Colts can’t pass successfully now, what will they be able to do against a tough Chiefs defense? Patrick Mahomes “struggled” last week, so you know he’s going to be motivated to have a great game against the league’s 17th-ranked pass defense.
Texans (0-1-1) at Bears (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Bears 24, Texans 20
ATS
Bears -2.5
Total
Over 40.5
Analysis
The Bears have the edge at quarterback and are at home. If this game were in Houston, I’d take the points. But here, I’m taking Chicago and laying the 2.5. The Bears are 1-1 after two straight games against NFC powerhouses. You have to like their chances at home this week versus the Texans.
Jaguars (1-1) at Chargers (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
Chargers 30, Jaguars 14
ATS
Chargers -7
Total
Under 48
Analysis
The Jaguars flying cross-country to play against a Chargers team coming off of 10 days rest? This could get ugly. It’s my lock of the week: Chargers -7.
Rams (1-1) at Cardinals (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Rams 26, Cardinals 24
ATS
Cardinals +4
Total
Under 51
Analysis
Expect the unexpected when these two teams face off. Innovative play calls, 2-point conversions, multiple formations, etc. It’s hard to predict a winner, but I’m going to give the edge to the team I think is more mature and predict a 2-point Rams victory (but take the points for the Cardinals).
Packers (1-1) at Buccaneers (2-0), Sunday 9/25 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Buccaneers 24, Packers 21
ATS
Buccaneers -2
Total
Over 41
Analysis
A game with two legendary quarterbacks and stout defenses figures to be a very close contest. Which one variable inevitably impacts close games the most? Turnovers. Tampa Bay is tied for 2nd (+4), while Green Bay is tied for 23rd (-2).
Falcons (0-2) at Seahawks (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Seahawks 19, Falcons 14
ATS
Seahawks -1.5
Total
Under 42
Analysis
I’m not quite sure what to make of this one. Both teams have been playing underwhelming football so far. DK Metcalf should make his fair share of plays, and I don’t think the Falcons have an answer for that. I’m going Seattle here but am taking the under in what I project to be a low-scoring game.
49ers (1-1) at Broncos (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 8:20 pm ET
Pick
49ers 28, Broncos 13
ATS
49ers -1
Total
Under 43.5
Analysis
Through the first two weeks of the season, the Broncos have flat out looked bad. On the flip side, San Francisco looked determined to get a victory against last week, despite the loss of their franchise-quarterback-to-be. Jerry Jeudy’s shoulder injury doesn’t help matters for Denver, but even if he was 100 percent, I wouldn’t trust the Broncos offense on the road against the 49ers.
Cowboys (1-1) at Giants (2-0), Monday 9/26 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Giants 27, Cowboys 24
ATS
Giants -2.5
Total
Over 39.5
Analysis
Even without Dak Prescott, this should be a very entertaining game. I like what Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush brings to the table and could actually see the Giants’ early-season winning streak end on Monday night. The difference-maker, though, is Saquon Barkley. Can Micah Parsons be deployed as a Saquon spy? Maybe. Either way, this should be a fantastic way to end Week 3. The Giants being the slightly better team and playing at home gives me enough confidence to lay the points and project them to improve to 3-0, something they haven’t done since 2009.
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
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