In what is likely the toughest game of the year for the Ravens, they welcome in a Bills team to Baltimore this Sunday. All the factors of a great game will be on hand. Two MVP-caliber quarterbacks. Two excellent head coaches. Two passionate fan bases. Two playmaking defenses. Inclement weather. Playoff implications. Both teams dealing with injuries at key positions. This game has it all.
The winner goes to 3-1. The loser goes to 2-2. Though it’s only Week 4, the outcome of this contest will very much impact the team’s postseason chances. It’s the difference between playing for a first-round bye versus playing for a wildcard berth.
The anticipation is building more and more by the day. It definitely has the feel of a playoff game. Here are three ways the Ravens can claim victory on Sunday afternoon.
Shadow Diggs
Best on best. Put Marlon Humphrey on Stefon Diggs all day. Pro Football Focus notes that opposing quarterbacks have a 1.0 QB rating when throwing Humphrey’s way this season. I think that’s pretty good. If Humphrey goes to Diggs without help, I think he’d do well. That said, if you can take Diggs—the leading receiver in football—out of the picture but had to allocate an additional defender to that part of the field, I think it would be worth it.
Diggs has garnered a whopping 27.6 percent of the Bills’ passing targets this season. That’s more than Justin Jefferson (25.7 percent). His 35 targets are tied for 1st in the NFL with Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase.
It’s a tall ask, but if the Bills’ main passing threat is neutralized, that not only helps the Ravens pass rush, but would presumably put Buffalo “behind schedule” with regards to down and distance. Bad weather, loud crowd, 3rd and long…all good odds for the Ravens defense against Buffalo’s offense.
Run Lamar 15-plus times
Usually, you don’t want your star quarterback taking any more hits than he absolutely has to. But, given Baltimore’s left tackle problems and Buffalo’s excellent pass rush, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to design runs for Lamar Jackson this week, as opposed to him only running when a play breaks down.
This can do two things. One, it’ll establish “the count” in the Ravens favor. On a pass play, the count is 11 to 10, in favor of the defense. Same thing for running plays, except if it’s a quarterback run. Then the playing field is equal, and talent is more of a factor. What’s the best way to stop a pass rush? Run right at them.
The second thing it’ll do is keep Josh Allen and the high-powered Buffalo offense off the field. The more the Ravens are running the ball, the less time the Bills have the ball.
For context, in the 14 games when Lamar has run 15 times or more, the Ravens are 13-1. Obviously, that’s an incredible stat the Ravens coaching staff is surely aware of. Specifically, though, in two starts against the Bills, Jackson has rushed 20 times for 79 yards. It’s my contention the Ravens will integrate Jackson, intentionally, into their run plan this week, and will er on the side of more carries for him than less. Given the way he’s playing and what Buffalo does well on defense, it makes too much sense not to.
Field position
In close games, and in particular when bad weather is involved, field position is precious. Execution is paramount. Both teams have very good kickers, but it’s the punt and punt return units that has my focus.
Jordan Stout has been pretty good for the Ravens thus far. His average yardage per punt is 45.9 with a net of 39.5. His counterpart, Sam Martin is averaging (and netting) 44.0 yards per punt. The interesting thing is that if Stout struggles early (and even if he doesn’t), the Ravens may opt to go for it instead of punting. This could be a game where an extra or extended possession could really come in handy.
As far as returners go, Jamison Crowder for the Bills is always a threat, but Devin Duvernay may be the best in the league right now. Duvernay is currently averaging 15.4 yards per punt return, so even if the Bills don’t score and send the Ravens deep, Duvernay can get half of those yards back in an instant. Even if he doesn’t receive a lot of targets in the pass game, his effect will surely be felt this Sunday.
Vegas
The Ravens are favored by 3.5 points and the point total is set at 52. The Bills are banged up in their secondary, while the Ravens could struggle to stuff Buffalo’s pass rush. Wind and rain figure to be a mainstay this week, but it’s unclear as to how significant of an effect the elements will have.
I feel like, for the most part, these two teams will be able to move the ball. The Ravens defense has shown the ability to make plays but also lapse in coverage. Half of the Bills secondary is on IR, with other key players being listed as day-to-day. In close games like this, I give the advantage to the team that makes the least mistakes. I hope I’m wrong, but I see Buffalo winning by a narrow margin.
Prediction
Bills 27, Ravens 24
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.