MLB Notes: October 3rd

The last week of the 2022 MLB season is upon us, and it’s not even really the last week. It’s the last part of the last week, the secret scene of the movie that comes on after the credits finish when most of the people have left the theatre. Sadly, this partial week is about as essential as that post-credits scene. The entire playoff field is set, save the final National League Wild Card spot, contested between the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies. And I say “contested” only because it’s the Phillies.

Flail’n Phils?

Any combination of a win by the Phillies or loss by the Brewers would spell a Phillies return to the post-season for the first time since 2011, when the 102-win Phillies were bounced in the Divisional round by the eventual World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals. With three games remaining for each team, you’d think this would be a foregone conclusion. But we’re talking about the Phillies. They’re basically the Mets but somehow more bumbling. They’re the Padres with angrier fans. They’re the Yankees without all that pesky winning. 

So instead of writing the Phillies names into the playoff bracket in sharpie and going out to play darts with your friends, let’s look quickly at how the Phillies could blow this. We can start by pointing out that Philadelphia’s last three games are against the Astros, probably the second best team in baseball. And not just against Houston, but in Houston. The Phillies are a sub-.500 team on the road this season, while the Astros are effectively a 109-win team at home. So there’s that. 

Then there’s the fact that the Brewers aren’t facing the Dodgers or some other similarly imposing opponent. No, they’re facing the well-below-.500 Diamondbacks in Milwaukee where they’re on a 93-win pace. What’s more, two of those three games will be started by Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. The Phillies burned their ace, Zack Wheeler, on Sunday, so their games will be started by Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, and Bailey Falter. At least Nola is pretty good, though any pitcher can be rendered helpless by the Keystone Kops routine the Phillies call defense. 

So we’ll see. Philadelphia only needs to win one. Heck, they don’t even need that. They can get swept, and the Brewers can win two of three. Even that would put the Phillies into the playoffs. And yet, I sense that there are some particularly tightly clenched fists around the Philadelphia area, at least for today. And while this whole thing could be moot just 12 hours from when you’re reading this, you and I both know it just can’t be that easy. After all, it’s the Phillies.

Get ‘em next Season

We touched on this on the Warehouse Podcast this past week, but it’s worth saying here: perhaps the most surprising team in baseball in 2022 was your Baltimore Orioles. The O’s played relevant baseball right up to late September, about five months longer than most pundits (myself sadly included) expected. This season won’t end with a World Series championship parade in Baltimore, but then to be considered a successful season, it really didn’t have to. The Orioles took a massive step forward, both on the field and in the collective mind of their fanbase by finishing with a winning record for the first time since 2016. 

I’d argue though that the franchise’s future looks far brighter now than it did back then. Adley Rutschman transformed the team when he was called up in late May. His catching, hitting, and steady presence all combined to put the Orioles on the proverbial map. Beyond him, Anthony Santander had a breakout season, and Cedric Mullins, while not quite his 2021 self, put together a campaign worthy of an All Star appearance. Also, Gunnar Henderson arrived, giving Baltimore a second power bat to put in the middle of their lineup for the next six seasons at least after Rutschman. 

It was an encouraging season, one to remember, but there is still a lot of work to be done. GM Mike Elias has pronounced the front office ready to make the big moves that need to be made and ready to sign the big contracts that need to be signed. It remains to be seen whether the franchise will be as successful with the next phase of team building, but if they’re anywhere near as good as they were with rebuilding the organization and farm system over these last seasons, the Orioles are just getting started. 

The playoffs are set

Right now, in the National League the Dodgers and Braves are set for byes to the second round while the Astros and Yankees get to avoid the first round in the American League. If the season ended today, the Phillies would go to St. Louis for a best-of-three game series while the Padres would play a best-of-three in New York against the Mets. In the AL, the Rays would travel to Cleveland and the Mariners would go to Toronto to face the Blue Jays. 

The only switch possible in the AL is the Rays catching the Mariners, who hold a one game lead on their Floridian counterparts. In the NL things are a bit more open, but only a bit. Besides the Brewers possibly catching the Phillies and stealing their Wild Card spot, it’s also possible for the Phillies to catch the Padres, the team in front of them, and pass them for the second Wild Card spot.

From the Phillies standpoint this seemingly good thing might actually be bad. Major League Baseball is not reseeding after the second round, meaning that the winner of the 4th seed vs. the 5th seed will go on to play the 110-win Dodgers in the second round. Perhaps not ideal. The alternative is playing the defending World Series champion Braves in the second round, so pick your poison there, but maybe, given the choice, you’d rather play Atlanta than Los Angeles. Or you could do like the Boston Red Sox and avoid the choice by missing the playoffs altogether. Either way, Phillies fans will be angry, which, when you think about it for a moment, you already knew.

The final word on the AL MVP

The past few weeks have seen a hardening of public perception that Aaron Judge will win the American League MVP award at season’s end. This was punctuated by Judge’s 61st home run in Toronto last week which more or less popped the cap on Judge’s celebratory bottle of MVP champaign. 

There’s a good reason for this though. Going back to the 1960 season, there have been four seasons of at least 11 fWAR in baseball. The first three (12.7, 12.5, and 11.9) were by Barry Bonds (2002, 2001, and 2004, respectively). If you don’t count Barry Bonds, and I have no idea why you’d do that, but if for some reason you decided not to, Judge’s 2022 season would be the most valuable. Yes, it’s worth repeating: Aaron Judge’s 2022 season is the best (by fWAR) in the last 62 years of anyone not named Barry Bonds. 

I picked the 1960 season as the starting point for the above sample because it conveniently avoids Mickey Mantle’s 11.5 fWAR in 1956 and Mickey Mantle’s 11.4 fWAR in 1957. Still, you could go back an extra decade because there’s no shame in finishing 0.3 fWAR behind Mickey Mantle’s greatest season. That should be enough to win the 2022 AL MVP award, right? 

Well, maybe. Shohei Ohtani’s eight shutout innings with 10 strikeouts, one walk, and two hits in Oakland last week reminded people that, hey, that dude is pretty good too. Also there’s that whole pitching AND hitting thing that he does, as well, something that Judge (and also everyone else in baseball for the last 100 years) can’t do. While Ohtani doesn’t reach the lofty heights of Judge’s fWAR total, his 9.3 this season is incredible as well, and most seasons would qualify for the league lead. 

I won’t rehash all the arguments for Judge and for Ohtani here because undoubtedly you’ve read them 700 times each by now but I do think it’s relevant to say that while Judge should probably win the award, the fact that I’d even throw a “probably” in there should tell you everything you need to know about Ohtani’s superlative season. We’ll see how the voters feel (we know how the voters feel but we’ll also see how they feel) when the season ends, but it’s worth keeping in mind how great both these players have been in 2022 and how privileged we all were to witness their greatness.