Well, that was rough. What a debilitating loss. How did that happen? I feel like the more we analyze the Bills game, the less clarity we’ll get. So, as Bill Belichick once said, “We’re on to Cincinnati.”
Here are my three keys to the game for the Ravens this Sunday night against the Bengals.
Limit Cincinnati YAC
Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon might compose the most dynamic trio of offensive skill position players in the league. They’re plenty good enough on their own, but if you allow them extra yardage because you’re struggling to cover and tackle properly, you might as well lock in for a long night. Chase, Higgins, and Mixon are currently averaging 4.6, 5.6, and 8.4 yards after the catch (respectively).
If you think about it, the Bengals have a better collection of offensive talent than the Bills, so the Ravens defense won’t be getting any kind of reprieve. That said, they did a very nice job against the Bills last week, especially considering a fluke touchdown that was allowed after a blatant offensive pass interference non-call.
Sack Burrow
The Bengals have allowed the 2nd-most sacks in football (16), one year after they allowed the most in football (51). In fact, Joe Burrow has been sacked 118 times in his 34-game career (playoffs included). That amounts to 3.5 sacks per game, or one sack per every 10 pass attempts.
There’s incredible opportunity for the Ravens pass rush to feast this week. They took another step in the right direction against the Bills. Sacking Burrow will not only boost Baltimore’s confidence but will eliminate any need to prevent (or worry about allowing) yards after the catch.
Little things, too, can be a factor. Sacking (and even pressuring) Burrow will yield positive results, such as confusing the Bengals offense, hyping up the home crowd, and potentially causing the Bengals to be called for delay of game penalties.
It’s easier said than done, but the opportunity is there. Baltimore needs to get after it.
Target tight ends
Isaiah Likely was deployed on 37 percent of offensive snaps yesterday. Josh Oliver on 30 percent. Nick Boyle was active but only played on seven special teams snaps (not percent, actual snaps).
In what clearly was a ball-control guided gameplan for Baltimore’s offense, it was dumbfounding how more tight ends weren’t involved. Through the first four games of the season, Mark Andrews has seen 36 targets, while the rest of the Ravens tight ends of have seen 11 targets combined. Andrews is great, but he’s not the only one at that position that can make plays.
Even if it’s one third down conversion per player (Likely, Josh Oliver) that’s something the Cincinnati defense has to account for. On the other hand, if the Ravens don’t even target those guys, it makes the job for Bengals defenders much less challenging.
This feels like a game where the Ravens can’t (and shouldn’t) hold anything back. Empty the tank. Go for it.
Vegas
Over the last 10 games in this series played in Baltimore, the Ravens are 6-4 and have outscored the Bengals 248-211. That’s a per-game differential of 3.7 points. Going strictly by those numbers, the spread would Ravens -3.5 and the over/under would be set at 50.
The current Vegas odds for this game favor Baltimore by three points, with the over/under being set at 48.5. Therefore, the sharps view the sample of those last 10 games as a strong indication of what will happen Sunday night.
Baltimore’s late-game defense will be tested once again, but for what it’s worth, the Bengals are only averaging 10 points per second half per week this season.
Get ready for another heart-tensing finish.
Prediction: Ravens 26, Bengals 23
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.