Well, quite a mess we have here, isn’t it? After Week 6 of the NFL season, the AFC North does not sport a single team with a winning record. With the Ravens and Bengals sitting at 3-3, tied for first, followed by the Browns and Steelers at 2-4, anything could happen, right?
In that vein, I’ll make the case for each of the four teams winning the division, and each of them finishing last.
Cincinnati has found repeating as division and AFC champions to be quite the challenge, yet they could very well be 6-0. Their three losses have come by a combined eight points. Pittsburgh beat them because of bad snaps on both a potential game winning extra point and a field goal. The Bengals had rallied from a 17-3 deficit to tie Dallas late in that game, only to see the Cowboys kick a 50-yard field goal at the gun. Cincy then took a late lead over Baltimore but fell on Justin Tucker’s field goal at the gun.
I believe the old Bengals would have collapsed by now after that series of losses, but their culture is strong, and the team is resilient. They will have to be to remain competitive because they are getting bit by the injury bug, especially on defense, more than they did last year. Those injuries have made them particularly vulnerable to the run. In Cincinnati’s win at New Orleans last week, they gave up 228 yards rushing at an average of 6.7 yards per carry. The Bengals trailed for most of the game, pulling it out on a 60-yard pass from Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase with 1:57 left.
That long pass was unusual for Cincinnati so far this season, in part because the offensive line has not given Burrow much time to throw. They have only allowed three sacks per game the last two weeks, an improvement over the first four games, and Head Coach Zac Taylor finally opened up his play calling in the second half against the Saints. The Ravens showed that a defense committed to shutting down the Bengals deep passing game can be successful (didn’t think I’d be writing that sentence this year) so challenges remain, especially since star running back Joe Mixon still has not bust loose, although his production has ticked up recently.
Case for first: They still have the weapons to be explosive on offense, and most of their key injuries are short-term. What projects as their three toughest remaining games vs. the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens, are all at home. They could very well win the rest of the division games, which would give Baltimore very little margin for error.
Case for worst: If the injuries on defense continue to pile up, that will put more pressure on the offense, which would allow opposing defenses to get after Burrow. He can only take so many hits, and Cincinnati would be doomed without him in the lineup.
It’s also easy to make that case that the Ravens could/should be 6-0. They have blown comfortable leads (although is there such a thing for them this year?), but last Sunday was the worst. I am a big believer in Lamar Jackson, but he giftwrapped the Giants game with a pretty little bow with his horrendous interception under pressure late and then his fumble on the team’s last possession.
The Giants loss was a puzzling one. After all, Baltimore seemed to exorcise the fourth-quarter collapse demon with the clutch win vs. the Bengals. It’s very hard to figure this team out, or is it really? Have them morphed into the team that finds a way to lose? Will these tough losses bond them together and improve their focus to quit making so many stupid mistakes? Will John Harbaugh and his staff come up with winning game plans like they did defensively against Cincinnati?
Case for first: This team is too good to continue to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Lamar Jackson has bet on himself, as the cliché goes, and the results have been decidedly mixed. He is a tough competitor, and he will put the team on his back and carry them into the postseason. He’ll have reinforcements coming as more of last year’s injury victims return to action.
Case for worst: The Ravens have learned how to lose, and that’s a hard habit to break. Crucial mistakes continue to outnumber big plays on both sides of the ball, and games are not often won by the team that makes the most mistakes. Any slipups against the Browns or Steelers will point them toward the division cellar.
Speaking of hard to figure out, what is with the Steelers? They appeared to be toast after Buffalo wiped them out in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, yet they managed to beat Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucs last week. That is notable because they have had a very difficult time beating Brady over the years, particularly in Pittsburgh.
All the focus on the quarterback situation had diverted attention from how poorly the vaunted Steelers defense had been playing. Going into the Tampa Bay game, Pittsburgh had allowed 30 points per game over their last three-all losses. They got the big stop on a two-point conversion that would have tied the game with under five minutes left after the Bucs had scored their only touchdown of the game.
The offense came up big in the fourth quarter, scoring the go-ahead touchdown, then running off the final 4:38 of the game so Tom Brady never got the ball back with a chance to win. BTW, did you see Brady’s hissy fit at his offensive linemen during the game? Or was he just complaining about the quality of the caviar served at Robert Kraft’s wedding the Friday before the game?
Just when everyone figured the Steelers quarterback situation was settled with rookie Kenny Pickett locked in as the starter, he goes and gets a concussion. Off the bench to save the day came Mitch Trubisky (another sentence I didn’t think I’d write this year). Remember Mitch, who previously played like the football was a Faberge egg and he didn’t want to do anything risky with it? The guy who came off the bench to relieve Pickett was not that guy. This Mitch came out firing, finishing 9-12 for 144 yards and the game-winning TD pass. His QB rating was 142.4, more than the combined rating over his last two starts.
Now what? Conventional wisdom seems to be that Mike Tomlin will stick with Trubisky and see what happens. Stay tuned to As The Quarterback Turns.
Case for first: If Pittsburgh can split their next four games (at Miami, at Philadelphia, home vs. New Orleans and Cincinnati) the schedule lines up for them to make a late run. A 10-7 record could certainly win this division, perhaps even 9-8. If Trubisky continues his bolder play and the defense shakes off its injuries and plays as well as it did last week, that could be within reach.
Case for worst: The offensive line is still a mess and the running game with Najee Harris is stuck in neutral. If T. J. Watt can’t come back sooner rather than later, and that is very much in question right now, the defense will likely come unraveled again. We’ve seen that movie earlier this season and it’s not pretty for the Steelers.
Then we have the Browns. What a hot mess. This is the least surprising occurrence within the AFC North so far to me, but I did not foresee their defense coming apart and allowing 30+ points to the Jets, Chargers, and Patriots, none of whom has a particularly productive offense.
Nick Chubb leads the NFL in rushing yards and has been everything that was expected. Fill-in quarterback Jacoby Brissett has also been what was expected by most experts-he is a game manager but not the guy that is going to do enough to put up 30 points when his defense is getting shredded. Having to play catch up also takes the ball out of Chubb’s hands, which is a big win for their opponents.
Head Coach Kevin Stefanski seems to be searching for answers he has yet to find. The vastly underachieving defense is sabotaging their chances of staying in playoff contention until Deshaun Watson comes riding in on his white horse to save them. Does he get a white horse after all his…stuff? Hmmm.
Case for first: Cleveland’s defense comes together and starts punishing people. Defensive ends Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney begin to dominate and control the line of scrimmage. The secondary starts making plays and allows the offense to grind out long drives with Chubb and Kareem Hunt and short passes by Brissett to Amari Cooper and David Njoku. Full disclosure-I don’t think this will happen, but it theoretically could.
Case for worst: Did I mention they are a hot mess? In their next five games, they are at Baltimore, home vs. Cincinnati, at Miami, at Buffalo, and home vs. Tampa Bay. I don’t see many wins there, and if they don’t find some that 2-4 record is only going to get worse. Full disclosure-I really think this is what happens.
I’m still going with my pre-season rankings: 1. Bengals 2. Ravens 3. Steelers 4. Browns. Of course, that could change without warning, or even making any sense. That’s the 2022 NFL season in a nutshell folks.
Until next time, you can follow me on Twitter @jimjfootball and check out my other work at jimjfootball.com
Jim Johnson spent most of his life in Maryland, growing up with the Orioles, the Colts, Terps, and later Ravens. He started his sports writing career as “The Courtmaster,” covering the Terps and ACC hoops and was a frequent guest on Bob Haynie’s old WNST show and other sports talk across the region. He is currently in his second run at BSL. After previously covering Maryland and Big Ten Football, he now writes about the NFL, primarily the action in the AFC North. Jim covers both current and historic stories, seeking perspective and having fun in the process.