The Lineup: 2022 NFL Week 8 Picks

Last week: 7-7 ATS, 4-10 over/under

Year to date: 56-47-5 ATS, 53-52-3 over/under

Ravens (4-3) at Buccaneers (3-4), Thursday 10/27 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Ravens 26, Buccaneers 20

ATS

Ravens -1.5

Total

Over 45

Analysis

Both teams have their share of struggles, but it’s been the Ravens who’ve been able to overcome theirs more often than not. Baltimore is better on the road (2-1, +20-point differential) than at home, and Tampa has a losing home record thus far (1-2, -6-point differential). I get the sense the Ravens will have the lead the entire game but will never quite pull away. In the end, I give the edge to Baltimore. Ronnie Stanley is my pick to be the MVP of this game.

Broncos (2-5) at Jacksonville (2-5), Sunday 10/30 at 9:30 am ET

Pick

Jaguars 20, Broncos 13

ATS

Jaguars -3

Total

Under 39.5

Analysis

This game…yikes. I feel sorry for the people in London. If anyone over there is reading this, please know these teams aren’t the best representation of the NFL.

Jacksonville has clearly looked like the better team so far, but Denver’s defense has been very good this year (ranked 3rd in scoring, allowing just 16.4 points per game).

I feel like this game screams “take the under,” but most of the time something that’s obvious doesn’t turn out that way. Jacksonville can score, but I just don’t think Denver can.

Panthers (2-5) at Falcons (3-4), Sunday 10/30 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Falcons 28, Panthers 23

ATS

Falcons -4.5

Total

Over 42

Analysis

Marcus Mariota is quietly keeping the Falcons in games. They’ve been very competitive all year even though they currently have a losing record. The Panthers are coming off a big win versus the Buccaneers, but one has to wonder if they can sustain such production.

It should be a pretty entertaining game. A total of 42 is suspiciously low to me. Just because teams don’t have many household names at skill positions doesn’t mean they won’t score.

Bears (3-4) at Cowboys (5-2), Sunday 10/30 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Cowboys 24, Bears 16

ATS

Bears +9.5

Total

Under 43.5

Analysis

Dallas’ defense is playing pretty well. They’re keeping the Cowboys, not only in games, but in a position to run what they want offensively. The Bears are coming off a thorough and impressive road win at New England, but I doubt they’re able to parlay their momentum.

Chicago will be competitive, and they could win outright. From a probability and betting standpoint, though, I’m giving the edge to Dallas.

Dolphins (4-3) at Lions (1-5), Sunday 10/30 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Dolphins 31, Lions 20

ATS

Dolphins -3

Total

Over 50.5

Analysis

Expect a lot of offense here. Miami obviously has the better arsenal, and the Lions have the worst scoring defense in the league. At the same time, the Lions are a tough team to put away. I think Detroit has a chance to tie the game at the end, but will commit a turnover, resulting in a Miami score that puts the game out of reach. It’s hard to see a way the Lions come out on top this Sunday.

Cardinals (3-4) at Vikings (5-1), Sunday 10/30 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Vikings 30, Cardinals 23

ATS

Vikings -3.5

Total

Over 49

Analysis

Minnesota hosts Arizona this week, as the Vikings are coming off a bye week. The Cardinals are such an up and down team that’s it’s hard to have confidence in them when they’re playing even an average opponent. The Vikings figure to have their way offensively, though the Cardinals should be able to answer.

When the game gets to crunch time, look for the Vikings to take control. The Cardinals have turned the ball over five times in seven games. I have to think Minnesota get an extra possession or two this week, which they turn into at least seven points.

Raiders (2-4) at Saints (2-5), Sunday 10/30 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Raiders 27, Saints 24

ATS

Raiders -1.5

Total

Over 48

Analysis

Josh Jacobs is one of the hottest players in the league right now. He’s on an absolute heater, and nothing about New Orleans’ defense (ranked 22nd against the run) tells me they’ll be able to stop him.

Patriots (3-4) at Jets (5-2), Sunday 10/30 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Jets 23, Patriots 19

ATS

Jets +1.5

Total

Over 41.5

Analysis

Somehow the Jets are underdogs again. They lost Alijah Vera-Tucker for the year (triceps), which now creates a big hole on their offensive line. They also lost stud rookie running back Breece Hall for the season (ACL). However, on Monday they agreed to trade a draft pick for running back James Robinson.

While the Jets have problems, the Patriots don’t even have a stable quarterback situation. Against New York’s defense, not having a dependable signal caller is a recipe for trouble.

This should be a close game with a couple of turnovers mixed in, but being that the Jets are the better team, playing at home, and getting points, I’m taking them all day.

Steelers (2-5) at Eagles (6-0), Sunday 10/30 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Steelers 20, Eagles 19

ATS

Steelers +10.5

Total

Under 43.5

Analysis

The Steelers looked bad last Sunday night in Miami. Though they were competitive, they only managed 10 points on offense and dropped multiple interceptions on defense. The Eagles are at home, coming off a bye, and have the league’s best record. That said, there’s something about Pittsburgh I like this week. Weird, I know.

If the Steelers can scheme ways to get Najee Harris and George Pickens in space, their size, physicality, and ferocity should be too much for Eagles defenders to manage 1-on-1. If the Steelers try to stay in the middle of the field with their passing and between the tackles with their running, I think the Eagles dominate.

To me, this is the best game of the week. A Pennsylvania showdown.

Titans (4-2) at Texans (1-4), Sunday 10/30 at 4:05 pm ET

Pick

Titans 21, Texans 17

ATS

Titans -1.5

Total

Under 40.5

Analysis

The AFC South is such a strange division to forecast. Houston was very competitive last week against the Raiders. Going into the 4th quarter, they were beating the Raiders, 20-17. Unfortunately for them, they gave up a whopping 21 points in the 4th quarter to the silver and black.

Tennessee doesn’t pose the scoring threat that Las Vegas does, so I feel like taking the under is the play here. That said, Derrick Henry is still Derrick Henry. His counterpart, rookie Dameon Pierce, is coming on strong with at least 80 yards and one touchdown rushing in three of the last four weeks.

As the spread indicates, this game looks like a coinflip. I’ll give the slight edge to Tennessee, as they’ve been a better team for longer.

Commanders (3-4) at Colts (3-3-1), Sunday 10/30 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Commanders 27, Colts 14

ATS

Commanders +3

Total

Over 40

Analysis

Sam Ehlinger starts for the Colts this week. For a team that was already struggling offensively, I don’t see how they will have an advantage against a battle-tested Washington team. In addition to Terry McLaurin, the Commanders could have the services of stud wideout Jahan Dotson (hamstring) in this game. I like Washington to score two or three touchdowns through the air and spell that with a solid run game.

Quite frankly, the Colts haven’t inspired any confidence in me to make me think they will win this game.

49ers (3-4) at Rams (3-3), Sunday 10/30 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Rams 27, 49ers 25

ATS

Rams +1.5

Total

Over 43

Analysis

Rams at home off a bye against a suddenly banged up San Fran secondary. I like LA to bounce back from the last time they played the 49ers (10/3, 24-9 loss). Christian McCaffrey should see more action this week, but I have a feeling the Rams will be ready.

Giants (6-1) at Seahawks (4-3), Sunday 10/30 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Giants 28, Seahawks 27

ATS

Giants +3

Total

Over 45

Analysis

Seattle has been playing great football of late, and for my money, Pete Carroll is the leading candidate for Coach of the Year. The Giants, too, have been exceeding expectations. I don’t see Seattle backing down or losing momentum this week. On the other hand, every single one of New York’s games has been decided by one score.

Honestly, I’m not sure who wins this game, but seeing the Giants getting three points is all the reason I need to pick them.

Packers (3-4) at Bills (5-1), Sunday 10/30 at 8:20 pm ET

Pick

Bills 23, Packers 17

ATS

Packers +10.5

Total

Under 47.5

Analysis

What an exciting prospect this is going to be. The spread is big, but it should be. Buffalo has looked great and Green Bay has looked horrible. Additionally, the Bills are hosting a game after a bye. This is a really tough spot for the Packers.

I think Green Bay loses but keeps it to within one score. Aaron Rodgers may not be what he once was, but he’s not far off. If his offensive line and receiving core was even a little more cohesive, I’m sure you’d see much better results.

As it stands now, though, I like Buffalo to win and go to 6-1 on the year.

Bengals (4-3) at Browns (2-5), Monday 10/31 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Browns 23, Bengals 20

ATS

Browns +3

Total

Under 47.5

Analysis

On the surface, it seems like the Bengals should win comfortably, doesn’t it? Cleveland was without All-Pro guard Wyatt Teller and Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward last week against the Ravens. This week, they’ll be without stud tight end David Njoku.

But, Nick Chubb is the best back in football. Jacoby Brissett is playing well enough for the Browns to, at the very minimum, be competitive. The Bengals offense has great skill position players, but that Browns pass rush is serious. Cincinnati’s offensive line will be thoroughly tested.

Besides, the way the AFC North is going this year, once a team starts to make progress, they come back down to earth. I don’t have a lot of confidence in this pick, but I feel good enough to put it on the record.