As they enter Week 9, the Ravens sit atop the AFC North at 5-3 and with a perfect division record. They’ve stood firm amidst some key injuries (Stanley, Dobbins, Bateman), but have come out stronger for it.
As they look toward the Saints game—the last before their bye week—they face another NFC foe on the road whose season isn’t going very well at the moment.
An unfamiliar opponent who doesn’t have a lot to lose can be dangerous. Here are three ways Baltimore avoids slipping up and leaves the Big Easy with a win Monday night.
Pressure, pressure, pressure
Whether it’s Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston, the Ravens will have a lot of opportunity to rack up sacks this Monday night. Neither of those two quarterbacks are very mobile—at all—and Baltimore has really hit its stride in the last few weeks with regards to quarterback pressures.
Over the last three games, the Ravens are tied for 3rd in the league in sacks per game (4.0). Those games were against the Giants, Browns, and Buccaneers—three teams whose quarterbacks aren’t the most mobile but still boast a good offensive line. Adding All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith to the mix will only infuse Baltimore’s defense with more dynamic ability.
The one caveat I see beating Baltimore is the check down/underneath route to Alvin Kamara. If New Orleans can get the ball to Kamara in space, it’ll be very tough for Baltimore to corral him. Not impossible, just very challenging. Besides that, it looks to be a big spot for Baltimore’s pass rush to tee off.
Balance
Last Thursday night, the Ravens threw the ball 30 times in the first half. Thankfully, they finished the game having thrown 38 passes and having rushed 33 times. A 46/54 run/pass ratio is very good, both for this team’s makeup and to keep defenses guessing. Besides, whenever you’re facing a defense led by All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu, you need to have a razor-sharp gameplan.
Besides the first half of the Buccaneers game, Greg Roman has been on a roll with his play calling. He’s spreading the ball around and keeping defenses honest. To continue such a trend, he will need to continue evolving. I think he can do that. The question is: does he have the personnel to match his scheme?
So far, it’s worked out. The Ravens rank 5th in points scored and the Saints rank 28th in points allowed. By quarter, the Saints allow the 23rd, 22nd, 9th, and 29th-most points in the NFL. So, it looks like if the Ravens can equal or exceed the Saints’ point output in the 3rd quarter, they’ll be in good shape to win the game.
Big plays
Any time you play the Saints in the Superdome, be aware of the big play. A big play is an actual statistic kept by the NFL. It’s defined as any play of 20 yards or more. You’ll also see stats kept for plays of 40 yards or more.
Looking at these two rosters may lead you to believe the Ravens have the clear advantage in big plays, both running and passing. However, when you look at the numbers through the first half of the season, it’s New Orleans that has the edge.
Here’s the breakdown of big plays from each team thus far:
| 20+ yard runs | 40+ yard runs | 20+ yard passes | 40+ yard passes | |
| Ravens | 11 | 2 | 17 | 2 |
| Saints | 6 | 3 | 26 | 8 |
If you were to total all plays of 20+ yards, the Saints would edge out the Ravens, 32-28. That said, their edge in 40+ yard plays is 11-4. That’s substantial. That proves the Saints’ big-play ability far exceeds that of the Ravens. Of course, big plays aren’t all there is, and being that the Ravens emphasize the run so much, they aren’t as inclined to gain big chunks of yardage as often as teams whose offense is pass-centric.
Fortunately for Baltimore, they have Devin Duvernay. It boggles my mind, especially with Rashod Bateman missing so much time, the Ravens don’t get him involved more. Get the ball in his hands. I realize it’s not always that simple, but it’s pretty clear he could be doing more in this offense.
Otherwise, you’re looking to Demarcus Robinson, James Proche, Josh Oliver, Isaiah Likely, and Kenyan Drake to make plays for you. Mark Andrews is a question mark with his shoulder injury, and if he’s good to go, we know he will produce. But so do the Saints.
The more you present options to the defense, the more they have to account for. The less you give the ball to your playmakers, the more the defense can focus on Andrews and Lamar Jackson.
Vegas
When looking at this game, I see a few turnovers being gifted to Baltimore from New Orleans. I also see Lamar Jackson scoring three touchdowns and rushing for over 80 yards. What I don’t see are many ways the Saints come out with a win. They may excel in certain spots, but I don’t think the Ravens are a good matchup for them. This should be a pretty comprehensive win for Baltimore.
Prediction: Ravens 30, Saints 21
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.