Last week: 7-8 ATS, 9-6 over/under
Year to date: 63-55-5 ATS, 62-58-3 over/under
Eagles (7-0) at Texans (1-5-1), Thursday 11/3 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Eagles 31, Texans 17
ATS
Eagles -13
Total
Over 43
Analysis
The NFL’s best against the NFL’s worst. Anything is possible, but 13 points is a huge spread. As things stand, I see no way the Texans are competitive with the Eagles, especially on a short week.
Chargers (4-3) at Falcons (4-4), Sunday 11/6 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Falcons 27, Chargers 24
ATS
Falcons +3
Total
Over 48.5
Analysis
Atlanta has been the surprise of the NFL thus far. They’re much more competitive than I thought they’d be, and have gained victories over the Seahawks, the Browns, the 49ers, and the Panthers. They are beyond just being competitive—they are a threat each week.
It’s almost like the Chargers and Falcons switched roles. The Chargers were supposed be a threat to win each week and the Falcons were supposed to be fighting an uphill battle. Though Los Angeles has a better record than Atlanta, it definitely feels like these two teams are trending in opposite directions.
The Chargers may win outright, but regardless, the Falcons getting points at home is an easy sell for me.
Dolphins (5-3) at Bears (3-5), Sunday 11/6 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Dolphins 23, Bears 19
ATS
Bears +4.5
Total
Under 45.5
Analysis
Miami had a tough road game last week against Detroit. The Dolphins won but made things harder on themselves than they needed to be. While it’s likely they will improve upon their mistakes, it’s not realistic to say they’ll play a perfect game, especially since they’re headed on the road to Chicago in November.
That said, the Bears aren’t the kind of team that are known for making you pay for your mistakes. Chicago has forced 13 turnovers this season, but they’ve given the ball away 12 times. They may force Miami into a couple of bad situations, but the stats say they will give the Dolphins a couple of extra chances to balance things out.
In these situations, I look at game-breaking talent, and that’s where Miami has the edge. I’m not comfortable giving the points, but I do think the Dolphins beat the Bears on Sunday afternoon.
Panthers (2-6) at Bengals (4-4), Sunday 11/6 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Bengals 30, Panthers 20
ATS
Bengals -8.5
Total
Over 44
Analysis
On paper, this should be a decisive Cincinnati win. Even without Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals look to have too much offensive firepower for PJ Walker to keep match.
The x-factor here is most certainly Panthers running back D’Onta Foreman, who has rushed for exactly 118 yards in each of his last two games and scored three times on the ground last week at Atlanta.
If the Bengals can get an early lead, that’ll likely hinder the Panthers’ ability to commit to the run. However, if Carolina can keep things close for a while, they’ll give themselves the opportunity to win the game outright.
Take the Bengals and give the points but be ready for a 60-minute ballgame.
Packers (3-5) at Lions (1-6), Sunday 11/6 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Packers 24, Lions 21
ATS
Lions +3.5
Total
Under 48.5
Analysis
The Lions are 1-6, but they’ve played in a lot of close games. That’s worth mentioning, because eventually, they’ll find a way to finish. The Packers have the better record, but they’ve lost four in a row and are struggling to find any semblance of normalcy. They’ve scored an average of 17.5 points per game in these last four games and are now set to face the worst defense in the NFL.
Something has to give.
Colts (3-4-1) at Patriots (4-4), Sunday 11/6 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Patriots 30, Colts 13
ATS
Patriots -6
Total
Over 39.5
Analysis
The Colts are a team that is quickly moving toward picking in the Top 10 of the NFL Draft next year. The Patriots, however, are coming off an impressive divisional win against the Jets. The Patriot’s run game and pass rush is outstanding. The Colts’? Not so much.
I expect a slow, steady, and emphatic win from the Patriots this Sunday. Give the points.
Bills (6-1) at Jets (5-3), Sunday 11/6 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Bills 23, Jets 16
ATS
Jets +12.5
Total
Under 47.5
Analysis
I really don’t think the Jets are going to compete for a wildcard spot when it’s all said and done, but for now, I expect them to remain a tough out.
The Bills are clearly on a course toward Super Bowl LVII, and if they want to win the big game, they’ll have to win divisional road games.
We’re not exactly sure what the weather will look like in East Rutherford this Sunday, but as of now there’s no rain in the forecast.
Sauce Gardner will have the opportunity of his young life so far, as he figures to match up often with elite receiver Stefon Diggs. Even if Gardner puts the clamps on Diggs—which I doubt will happen—Buffalo has plenty of other resources it can deploy to gain a victory.
In other words, even if everything goes right for the Jets, I still don’t know if they win.
Vikings (6-1) at Commanders (4-4), Sunday 11/6 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Vikings 28, Commanders 21
ATS
Vikings -3
Total
Over 44.5
Analysis
Washington always plays tough at home. They are more than just a team that’s trying to do well—they’re actually performing. Minnesota is in a different class, though. They have few weaknesses and have the biggest division lead (2.5 games) of any team in the league.
I definitely think Minnesota wins, but even the three-point spread gives me cause for concern. I’ll give the points this week but am not very confident in doing so.
Raiders (2-5) at Jaguars (2-6), Sunday 11/6 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Raiders 27, Jaguars 22
ATS
Raiders -1.5
Total
Over 46.5
Analysis
I’m shocked the Raiders were shutout last week. They have too much talent on offense not to score a single point. The Jaguars didn’t do much better, as they lost their 5th game in a row—all by one score.
Two bad teams with talent in certain spots makes for a decent, but underwhelming prospect. Take the over and give the points from the team with the better quarterback.
Seahawks (5-3) at Cardinals (3-5), Sunday 11/6 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
Cardinals 40, Seahawks 37 (OT)
ATS
Cardinals -2.5
Total
Over 49.5
Analysis
Something about this game seems weird to me. I feel like the Seahawks are the better team without question, but the Cardinals are favored. The Cardinals are a team that have a lot of problems but will still upset a good team every now and then.
This is a home divisional game for Arizona, which needs to win to keep pace with division-leading Seahawks. Arizona lost at Seattle just three weeks ago, so as much as thing seem to be unsettled with the Cardinals, you have to think they have a good shot to cover at home in what is looking like a desperate spot.
A win would bring them to within one game of the division lead. A loss would drop them to 0-3 in the division and 3-6 overall.
Rams (3-4) at Buccaneers (3-5), Sunday 11/6 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Rams 26, Buccaneers 17
ATS
Rams +3
Total
Over 42.5
Analysis
Once again, the Rams are underdogs, and I don’t know why. The Buccaneers look like such a defeated team and losing stud linebacker Shaq Barrett for the year won’t help matters. The Rams should have their way in the pass game. That, in turn, should put even more onus on Tom Brady and Tampa Bay’s injured offensive line as they face off against Aaron Donald and company.
Titans (5-2) at Chiefs (5-2), Sunday 11/6 at 8:20 pm ET
Pick
Chiefs 28, Titans 24
ATS
Titans +10.5
Total
Over 46.5
Analysis
Kansas City comes off their bye week with a home game against the 5-2 Titans.
Derrick Henry is coming off a 219-yard, 2-touchdown performance for the Titans. However, the Chiefs boast the 3rd-best run defense in football.
I think Henry has a good game (not great) and the Titans keep it somewhat close, but the Chiefs win in the end. Quite frankly, Patrick Mahomes is too good for me to think Malik Willis (or Ryan Tannehill) can outduel him.
Ravens (5-3) at Saints (3-5), Monday 11/7 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Ravens 30, Saints 21
ATS
Ravens -3
Total
Over 48.5
Analysis
Baltimore earned a very important victory last Thursday night in Tampa Bay. They overcame a horrible start to beat the Buccaneers and improve to 5-3. Having to sort out a lot of key issues in real time (play calling, defensive back health, defending a power running game, etc.), they played the 2nd half like it was the last half of their lives. I’m still speechless when thinking about how starkly different the two halves were. It was the kind of win that functions like a rush of fresh air, waking you up and alerting all your senses.
New Orleans had a big win of their own last week, blanking the Raiders. The Saints are still not quite sure who their best quarterback is, which is never something you want to be true of your team—especially at this point in the season.
In line with last week’s game against the Buccaneers, I think the Ravens continue to separate themselves from teams that are okay and start to keep the company of teams that are truly contenders. Look for a back-and-forth matchup in which the Ravens pull away in the 4th quarter.
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.