World Cup Qatar 2022 – Part 1

Next Sunday the greatest sporting event on the planet will once again take center stage. The 22nd running of the feature soccer event will be held in Qatar and has a bunch of storylines new this time around. Not the least is all the controversy surrounding the selection of Qatar as the host in the first place.

When FIFA issued the original request for proposal it called for this WC to be held in the traditional summer window. However, in its infinite and corrupt wisdom, FIFA awarded the bid to Qatar. And once announced investigations began in both Europe and the United States to determine the validity of the award. Numerous FIFA officials were suspected of having taken under the table money to vote for Qatar. Those monies were given under the guise of “improving soccer in their respective countries.” Then of course was the question of how does FIFA award such a prestigious event to a country well known for human rights abuses ? And then perhaps the granddaddy question of them all. How did Qatar convince FIFA that it could build outdoor stadiums to host in the summer (as required by the RFP) in a locale with average day time temperatures over 100 degrees? The storyline was the Qatar would could build “air conditioned outdoor stadiums to keep on field temperatures acceptable.” If you want to read about the “engineering” of these super duper air conditioned stadiums you can read the “technical” piece issued by FIFA. Note that the key statement in this piece was “to find solutions in curbing Qatar’s summer heat during matches.?”

So with all of those issues, the soccer world believed that the correct decision would be to dismiss Qatar’s bid and revote to and determine a new location. But no, FIFA just told Qatar ok you can host it in the winter. Which of course then set off a firestorm of issues, especially from the European domestic leagues. But alas that’s all water under the bridge. WC 2022 is here so lets take a look at the actual event and move past the political gyrations.

Storylines for WC 2022

1. This will be the first WC held in essentially one location since 1930. All 8 of the stadiums are within a short driving distance of each other. And in fact teams will be able to stay at their base camps for the entire tournament and no flights will be required for travel. For comparison, the USMNT travelled almost 9,000 miles in Brazil for WC 2014.
2. This will be the last WC with 32 teams as its set to expand to 48 teams for WC 2026 hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Those 48 teams will be divided into 16 groups of 3. This setup has a whole host of issues with it not the least being that not every team in a group will play on the same day. One would hope that FIFA will come to their senses and fix this mess but ….well its FIFA.
3. As mentioned with will be the first ever WC not held in the months of May, June, and/or July. This schedule has created a whole raft of issues. Since this is right during the middle of the European domestic leagues the schedule has been compressed to one week of training camps and only 29 days for the actual WC. So just what does that mean from a competitive standpoint?
4. In general, players left their clubs after their last match meaning they arrived in Qatar on either November 13 or 14th. So full team training wont begin with everyone until November 15th. With only a “week” for training, most teams are not scheduling a friendly match. In most WC cycles teams have had two friendlies prior to the WC to prepare for the actual matches. In this case only the teams with their opening matches occurring later in the week are having a single friendly. Although some, including the US are going to have a closed door match with another team. Those are usually done with strict understanding between the two countries on how they are going to play and to make sure the intensity level is low.
5. With only a single week between the last league match and the start of the WC, club teams have been trying to maintain a balance between keeping their clubs playing well but not overworking players set for national team duties. Then of course you KNOW that there will be some injuries that will keep players out of their club matches for a period of time post WC. There won’t be an extended time between the end of the WC and the restart of the domestic leagues. In the case of the EPL, they restart just one week after the WC final. Expect when this is all said and done that UEFA will formally demand that FIFA must hold the WC in the summer in the future. There is just too much money at stake to take this risk.
6. Given that limited amount of training time don’t expect the early stages of the WC to be as high a level as you have been used to seeing in the WC. It may take teams a group stage match or two to get things going well. What this does do though is to favor those teams whose players play mostly in a single domestic league and on just a few teams in that league. Those player are very familiar with each other and will take less time to gel. As an example, all 26 players for Qatar playing in the Qatar domestic league and 13 of those players play on the same club team. National teams in these circumstances may be better than expected especially in the opening match or two. Expect to see a good amount of player rotations during the group stage matches. Given the shortened schedule most teams play their 3 matches in just 8 days. Good thing they have 5 substitutes!

Ok enough background lets get to some soccer!

Group A

Composite FIFA Rankings – 120

Ecuador (44) – The Ecuadorians are hopeful of repeating their performance from 2006 and advance out of the group. They are a capable side but have been having trouble scoring of late. They have played 5 friendlies since qualifying. The good news is that they didn’t concede a single goal. The bad news is that they only scored 2. They will rely on a wide counter attack with speed. They have some talent and in this group they may have enough to move on. They will need a strong tournament from midflieder Moises Caidedo. The key match for them will be against Senegal. The outcome of that match likely determines who advances between those two.

Netherlands (8) – Clearly the top side in this group and loaded with experience and talent. Especially on defense with the back line led by Virgil van Dijk who is as good as it gets. They had slumped a bit in 2021 and lost to the Czech Republic in August and replaced manager Frank de Boer with Louis van Gaal (his third stint with the Dutch). All they have done since he took over is to have gone 11-4-0. They ended up qualifying allowing just 8 goals in 10 matches and just 6 goals in their Nations League’s 6 matches. Watch their back 3 of Virgil, Nathan Ake, and Jurrien Timber. If they are in form it will be tough to score on them in this group.

Qatar (50) – The host nation has a bunch of unheralded players. As mentioned above though, they are one of those teams whose players are very familiar with each other. Plus playing at home will be a hug boost. But the bottom line is that they don’t have enough talent to do expect to advance unless others in the group stumble. Their best hope is for the Netherlands to run the table, Senegal and Ecuador to stumble to a 0-0 draw, and for Qatar to beat either Senegal or Ecuador.

Senegal (18) – The Senegalese are going to play a very physical game especially in the midfield. How well they can maintain that type of play during the conditions in Qatar remain to be seen but being an African nation they are attuned to playing in the heat. Plus they have some talent not the least of which is Bayern Munich forward Sadio Mane. Then they have 2 Chelsea stars forging what could be a strong defense in keeper Eduourd Mendy and defender Kalidou Koulibaly. However, as everyone knew when it was announced that the WC would be in the middle of the domestic league seasons there would be injuries impacting teams. Well Mane was hurt in Bayern’s match with Werder Bremen and did not play in their match last Saturday against Schalke. According to Bayern his injury is expected to keep him out for a couple of weeks (likely missing at the group stage).

Prediction – The Netherlands with the group. IF Sane can go then Senegal takes second. If he can’t go then the fight for second is wide open but I’d go with Ecuador.

Group B

Composite FIFA Rankings – 60

Comprised of England, Iran, United States, and Wales this group is my personal choice for the Group of Death. But you are going to have to wait to read Part 2 to get my in depth take on this group and the USMNT chances.

Group C

Composite FIFA Rankings – 93

Argentina (3) – The story here is simple. This is the last shot for Lionel Messi to get the one trophy that has alluded him. Do the have a chance? Not only do they have a chance they are one of the favorites and for good reason. La Albiceleste are on a roll having won Copa America 2021 and are unbeaten in 35 matches just two shy of the all time of any national team’s all time record. In the group stage they have a terrific shot at matching that record. There are two keys to their play. First, the possession play of the midfield trio of Leandro Paredes, Rodrigo De Paul, and Giovanni Lo Celso. Then the finishing ability of Messi and Lautaro Martinez. Do they have a weakness? Nope. It used to be their lapsed on defense but they have been outstanding over the last year plus and have only allowed 2 goals in their last 14 matches.

Mexico (13) – The good news for El Tri fans was that they “cruised” to finish CONCACAF qualifying tied atop the table with Canada just falling short on goal differential. The bad news is that they were a woeful 0-2-2 against Canada and the US. Many fans are surprised to see that manager Tata Martino is still in charge. He has changed their style of play to a more build up in the attack that their historical attack like crazy. The problem is that they have had some struggles trying to find those key passes in the final third. But when they do find Hector (Chucky) Lozano look out. The Naopoli winger is deadly.

Poland (26) – Poland had a lackluster qualifying segment finishing second in their group well behind England. But they really only beat up on the minnows and had to go to the 4 team playoff bracket. Then they got some unexpected help. Since FIFA banned Russia from competing (due to their invasion of Ukraine) the Poles got a free first round bye. They ended up saving their best qualifying performance for last besting Sweden 2-0 to advance to Qatar. The key for their play in Qatar is going to be the role they define for super striker Robert Lewandowski. Every body knows if he gets the ball in the penalty area is got a good chance to result in a goal. But the problem is that Poland needs much more out of him than just his play in the area. Something he typically hasn’t had to do for his club teams. We’ll see how this goes.

Saudi Arabia (51) – Another one of those teams whose players play entirely in their domestic league. And 13 of their 26 player for the same club, Al-Hilal. So they will have player familiarity and fan support on their side. The problem is that just don’t have the talent to scare the rest of the group and I am not sure that the benefits they do have can overcome their talent deficiency. Look no further than the recent friendly they had against the US. Their ability to play well together kept them in the game but playing against a US team just trying to get some players minutes together resulted in a lackluster 0-0 draw.

Prediction – Argentina wins the group and gets the all time unbeaten streak record for men’s national teams. The Saudis go home. The winner of the Mexico – Poland match on matchday one takes second. If Mexico and Poland draw then its going to come down to which one of them beats up the Saudi’s by the most goals.

Group D

Composite FIFA Rankings – 82

Australia (38) – The Socceroos are headed to their 5th straight WC appearance and it was quite a topsy turvy run. They started qualifying with 11 straight wins (a single WC qualifying record) but did so in a fairly weak region and their hot streak eventually caught up with them as their weaknesses were exposed and they ultimately had to go via the intercontinental playoff route. And in dramatic fashion they advanced over Peru besting them 5-4 on penalties. They tend to struggle to maintain possession against teams that employ a defensive minded low block. The good news is that neither France or Denmark play that way. But before roos fans get too excited the flip side of that coin is that they also don’t have near the talent of France or Denmark. They rely on Ajdin Hrustic to be their creative player in the attack. Hurstic transferred from Eintracht Frankfurt to Hellas Verona in September and was just rounding into form with his new club. Then he went down with an injury in October. He should be back but in what form will be the question. They need him to be able to sneak a point against France or more likely Denmark to have any chance to advance.

Denmark (10) – The hallmark of the Danes approach is team cohesion. While they don’ t have the number of quality players of many European sides they do play to the collective and believe that the whole is better than the sum of their parts. But that doesn’t mean they lack for quality. Christian Eriksen, the Manchester United attacking midfielder, is playing well and scored his first goal for Man U this past weekend. How far Denmark goes will most likely rest in the back. Keeper Kasper Schmeichel has historically been a world class net minder but he has had bouts of off periods. But he has been playing well of late. Look for him to be big in Qatar.

France (4) – Les Blue are the reigning world champions and much of their roster from 2018 is still there including Kylian Mbappe. Mbappe recently became the most valued player in the world according to Transfermrkt. The biggest issues for teams facing France isn’t just how do you stop Mbappe. But how do you stop Mbappe, Karim Benzema, and Antoine Greizmann? The answer usually is you don’t. The biggest problem for the French side is in the midfield. They are missing Ngolo Konte and Paul Pogba due to injuries. And they may also be without Raphael Varane. That’s a lot of talent to replace and it will be interesting to see how their midfield performs in Qatar.

Tunisia (30) – This side has two major problems facing it coming into Qatar. First their stout defense approach is fine but in a tournament format against teams with better overall quality at some point you have to either come out of your shell or get lucky. They could get lucky (any team can) but coming out of their shell is going to be hard because 2 of their 3 forwards are on the wrong side of 30. Three matches in just over a week is going to put a premium on conditioning and bench strength. They may falter in both of those areas. Wahbi Khazri, who missed Russia with an injury has a lot to prove this time around. If, and that’s a big if, he can produce it will give Tunisia at least a punchers chance.

Prediction – France and Denmark have just too much talent and rosters filled with players with a lot of experience together. Just hard to imagine those sides not finishing 1, 2 in this group. And the oddsmakers see it this way as well making this group one of the easiest.

Group E – The Other Group of Death

Composite FIFA Rankings – 73

Costa Rica (31) – While likely to finish last in this group teams best not sleep on the Ticos. They will sit back with numbers behind the ball and try to ensure that their opponents shots are low percentage ones from distance. And they will play this way all game ….until all of a sudden they see the right opening for a quick counter. The problem is they have not been the best finishers and that will need to change if they are to have any chance to advance which I put at slim. But and this is a biggie. They have Kaylor Navas in goal. One of the top keepers in the tournament. If he gets hot they can stifle teams. You won’t advance with a bunch of 0-0 draws. But if you keep the other team off the scoresheet all it takes is that one magic moment.

Germany (11) – While the Germans are still a dangerous team they are not quite the juggernauts they have historically been. But they have won 4 World Cups and will be in the running this time around as well. In their 10 qualifying matches they cruised through with 9 wins and a single loss at home to North Macedonia. Don’t laugh at that single loss either. North Macedonia is the reason Italy isn’t at this WC. And Die Mannschaft only allowed 4 goals in those 10 matches having 7 clean sheets. They will play a possession game and pressure opponents deep in their end to force turnovers in dangerous situations. From a playmaking perspective this may just be the best team Germany has ever fielded. With such technically gifted players as Kai Havertz, Leroy Sane, and Serge Gnabry. The weakness of this sides approach is the vulnerability in the back four. They don’t have the strongest back line and if their outside backs get caught forward their center backs can be beat. But the key to their whole run may well lie with 19 year old Jamal Musiala. Just like in 2018 when few casual fans had heard of Kylian Mbappe, after this tournament most fans will know about this kid.

Japan (24) – This team took it to the USMNT in their September friendly. Yes there were a lot of reasons behind that but this team is legit. They qualified going a perfect 8-0-0 and outscored their opponents 46-2. Yes the Asian Football Confederation is one of the weakest FIFA groups but still. They are technically skilled and have really fast wingers. A good combination to winning. They have advanced to the knockout stages in 3 of 6 WCs and know what it takes to get through. The question around them going in is the curious roster selections of their manager Hajime Moriyasu having left three strikers at home and going with a trio that have an average of just 18 caps and have only scored 8 international goals between them. The Japan midfield may have to provide those final balls?

Spain (7) – Its a rule for this team under manager Luis Enrique that La Roja will attack, pressure, attack , pressure, rinse and repeat until the game is over. They are just relentless. While they may not have to well known superstars of Spanish team in the past they are loaded with talent from top to bottom. And they have another teenager, Pedri who is starting the WC at only 19 after busting out on the world stage at Euro 2020. He’s got terrific body control, footwork, and pace. But what stets him apart is his vision. If you have any lapse in marking his teammates he will see that and make you pay.

Prediction – Germany and Spain are the two best sides but this is one tough group and any of the four could advance. It would be a surprise if Costa Rica did so but Japan is capable of knocking off either of the two big guns if they have an off day. If you are a gambler I suggest keeping you money in your pocket when it comes to this group.

Group F

Composite FIFA Rankings – 87

Belgium (2) – This is the last chance for what most Belgians consider as their golden generation as they are aging and the next crop of players don’t appear to be quite as strong. The good news is they have Kevin de Bryune in the midfield and he is just as good as they get. Paired with Eden Hazard they will provide the offensive spark but they are going to need striker Romelu Lukaku to be on top of his game. He’s a terrific finisher when playing well and Belgium should score some goals. Lukaku has struggled with fitness the last several months and Hazard has not played many minutes so there are questions there for sure. And if that’s not enough of a problem then there is their defense. This shortened tournament is putting an extra emphasis on fitness and the two main defenders in the back are getting up there. Toby Alderweireld is 33 and Jan Vertonghen is 35. They need their legs to hold up!

Canada (41) – Lets get right to the bottom line. Was their run in CONCACAF qualifying smoke and mirrors or are they really that good of a team. The answer lies in the middle. The finished extremely well in qualifying scoring 54 goals for an average of 2.7 goals/match. Their Xg over that same run of 20 matches? 1.84 goals/match. So yes there was a lot of smoke in there. Just don’t think they can translate that over inflated scoring to the tournament. Now they do have some real talent in Alphonso Davies, Tajon Buchanan, Cyle Larin, and Jonathan David but the best thing they have going for them is their belief in what manager John Herdman is selling. They collectively punched above their weight in qualifying and they will need to do so to have any chance to advance to the knockouts.

Croatia (12) – The key to how the Croatians fare is going to be how well the switch in the back manager Zlatko Dalic works out. Dalic recognized that his aging center backs were a double whammy. They weren’t getting the job done and it forced their playmaker and all world superstar Luka Modric to have to drop way deep into their own half of the field to get the ball. Now Modric has one of the most incredible motors I have ever seen in a player. But he is 37 and nobody can run like this forever. So the two young center backs Josip Sutalo Josko Gvardiol will carry the load. Can these two youngsters (their combined age is 42 only 5 years more than Modric) handle the pressure on the big stage? The core of the team is pretty much the same from 2018 when they reached the finals. The midfield trio of Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Marcelo Brozovic along with winger Ivan Perisic have over 400 caps. All that time playing together may pay big dividends they way this tournament is set up.

Morocco (22) – An interesting team. They went undefeated in qualifying but just seemed like the team was underperforming. So in August they fired their manager and replaced him with Walid Regragui. Reports seem to indicate that the team has embraced this change and are upbeat and ready for Qatar. The question is just what formation and tactics will they employ and will they have had enough time under the new manager to get things working well? This is a team that has some talent but I also think that the format for this WC, especially the very short training camp, will not be in their favor. They will need one of the top two sides to stumble a bit for them to advance.

Projection – Belgium, even with its issues should advance. If Croatia’s legs hold up they should advance and could win the group. Morocco is a possibility if one of these guys stumble. Canada? Only if Herdman can pull a rabbit out of his hat but he could do just that.

Group G

Composite FIFA Rankings – 80

Brazil (1) – The betting odds favorite to win a 6th WC and with good reason. In qualifying the were undefeated going 14-3-0. Sure they did lose to Argentina at home in the COPA America 2021 final 2-1. Since then? Well a stout 12-3-0 while scoring 38 and allowing a mere 5. That kind of performance will server them well in Qatar. The best news for the Brazilians is that their young strikers are finding their form. Up the center of the field they are as good as it gets. With keeper Alisson, center backs Marquinhos and Thiago Silva (experience) or Eder Militao and midfielder Lucas Paqueta they are just way strong up the spine. Then they have the balanced attack of Neymar, Richarlison, Raphinha, and Junior they can score lots of ways. Do they have a flaw? Maybe. South American teams are well known for their tempers and this Brazil team has shown a bit of that. In last years COPA final when Argentina took the lead several Brazilians seemed more intent on taking their frustrations out on the Argentines than in playing sound soccer. If they get behind, especially against a solid European side, how will they handle it mentally? If they just keep playing soccer they likely make it all the way to the stage to lift the trophy.

Cameroon (43) – The question for the Indomitable Lions is which team will show up? The decent side with enough talent to play with the big boys with some style and flair or the discombobulated group that is on the edge of crisis? The problem for them is that I see no way they can steal a point from Brazil which means that have to find at least 4 while scoring some goals against the other two. I just don’t see that happening. But if you believe in minor miracles then watch for outside backs Nouhou Tolo and Collins Fai to find a way to sneak in behind the defense. If a team looses sight of those guys they can run past you, and quickly.

Serbia (21) – As in any sporting event you want a team to be improving and on the rise and that is exactly how the Serbs come in. They got better and better as qualifying progressed and in the last Nations League their topped their group to earn a promotion. The biggest improvement was actually an addition through subtraction. The retirement of long time defenders Branislov Ivanovic. This led manager Dragan Stojkovic to switch to a 3 man backline. The team has gelled under that approach and has given them a more solid team in both the defense and attack. While they still appear a bit disjointed at times this new formation has allowed them to put 2 deadly strikers up top (Aleksandar Mitrovic and Dusan Vlahovic) with Dusan Tadic sitting behind them. That triangle can find lots of ways to score. The weakness is still in the back and at times Stojkovic has switched to a 5 man back line to play more defensively.

Switzerland (15) – Like Serbia, the Swiss are coming in on a role and may be peaking at the right time. Their last 3 matches they defeated Spain, Portugal, and the Czech Republic. That’s as good a run as any team leading up to the WC. The key to their fortunes will be for midfielder Granit Xhaha and Remo Freuler keeping their players well balanced and not get lost at one end of the field or the other. While they rely on their collective strength that does present a potential weakness in that they don’t have a go to goal scorer. If they fall behind they can struggle to find the tying goal.

Prediction – This group is fairly easy to predict. Brazil wins the group and Neymar becomes their all time leader in international goals. The winner of the Serbia – Switzerland match takes second but if it ends in a draw then its down to which of those twos scores the most against Cameroon.

Group H

Composite FIFA Rankings – 112

Ghana (61) – The good news for US fans is that the chances we end up having to play our WC nemesis is nearly zero. First off, Ghana isn’t going to advance. Secondly even if they did the bracket doesn’t set up for us to play them to near the end. Not happening. Coming in does not look that well for the Black Stars having suffered a 3-0 drubbing by Brazil in September and that coming off a lackluster qualifying run. This is just not the same Ghana sides we have seen in past WCs. However, to qualify they did have to go to a home and home with rival Nigeria and they found a way through. So there is some hope slim as it may be.

Portugal (9) – A very good team that seems to have some internal issues right now. Barely made it to the break from league play and star forward Cristiano Ronaldo was bad mouthing his club Man United. So much so that Man U manager Erik ten Haag has made public that he wants Ronaldo gone and that “he should never play another match for Man U.” So that sounds like it could spill over to the WC right? Well for most players you would say absolutely. But Ronaldo is a different critter. He simply thrives in the limelight and there is no player who can turn things on when he’s on the big stage. I think they cruise through a relatively easy group with their only real challenger being Ururguay.

South Korea (28) – The South Koreans are entering their 10th consecutive WC. An impressive record although somewhat diminished in that their confederation is weak. They are bolstered by a truly world class forward in Son Heung-min. The Tottenham superstar has some fitness questions and they will need him to be in top form for any chance at advancement. The Ghana match will be a must win then they have to steal a point against Portugal or Uruguay.

Uruguay (14) – The interesting thing about this team is the wide range of formations and tactics that they may employ. Even teams that have shown multiple faces still tend to have a base set as their starting point. Uruguay is truly different and could come out in a number of entirely different formations based upon how manager Diego Alonso sees their opponent. While it can be hard for a team to play this way especially with the short preparation window it is an absolute nightmare for opposing coaches. Very hard to prepare for and you must be able to quickly change your approach once the kick off whistle happens when they come out way differently that you were prepared for. With the weird setup for this WC it remains to be seen how this works out but if Uruguay can pull it off (and with talent like Luis Suarez, Edinson Cavani, Federico Valverde its certainly doable) then they can do on a bit of a run.

Prediction – Hard not to see Portugal and Uruguay moving on.

The WC kicks off on Sunday with the hosts Qatar facing off against Ecuador with the rest of Matchday 1 set for Monday. Fox will be the broadcast host in the US with starts times ranging from 3am to 3pm EST. Tune in all you can. Its going to be fun.