Last week: ATS 8-7, over/under 8-7
Year to date: ATS 102-86-7, over/under 97-95-3
Raiders (5-7) at Rams (3-9), Thursday December 8 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Raiders 26, Rams 20
ATS
Raider -5.5
Total
Over 43
Analysis
Cam Akers has returned to good form, despite mounting injuries around him. The Rams will not quit, but neither will the Raiders. Las Vegas may not be able to make the playoffs this year, but they will certainly try. Josh Jacobs is on an absolute tear, and Davante Adams isn’t too bad himself. If Aaron Donald can return this week, that will be huge for LA’s hopes. Otherwise, the Rams are looking at their first double-digit loss season since 2016.
Jets (7-5) at Bills (9-3), Sunday December 11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Bills 24, Jets 17
ATS
Jets +9.5
Total
Under 44.5
Analysis
Buffalo is coming off a lengthy layoff, having last played on Thursday December 1. They’re playing at home, which is obviously a unique advantage, but Jets are no doormat. They will bring the fight to you and make you earn every point you get, regardless of who their own quarterback is.
This is a tricky game to predict because both teams are not only fighting for playoff positioning, but for the AFC East crown. Yes, the Jets are in position, especially with a win this week, to vie for the division title. Five weeks ago, they beat the Bills, so they have all the confidence in the world they can do it again.
That said, the Bills are sitting on a losing division record (1-2), so although they’re a huge favorite, they’ll play with the utmost urgency.
Browns (5-7) at Bengals (8-4), Sunday December 11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Bengals 30, Browns 14
ATS
Bengals -4.5
Total
Under 48.5
Analysis
Deshaun Watson looked horrible last week against a bad Texans defense. How am I supposed to think he will be any better this week in his first AFC North road game? The Bengals are just better. On the flip side, Cincinnati’s confidence is sky high after beating the Chiefs last week. Lay the points.
Texans (1-10-1) at Cowboys (9-3), Sunday December 11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Cowboys 35, Texans 13
ATS
Cowboys -17
Total
Over 45
Analysis
These two teams are on drastically different paths. Seventeen points is a lot to give, but the way things are going for these clubs, it’s not a surprise.
Vikings (10-2) at Lions (5-7), Sunday December 11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Vikings 31, Lions 27
ATS
PK
Total
Over 53
Analysis
Minnesota is rounding into a legitimate Super Bowl contender. They’re playing in and persevering through close games each week, which is invaluable come January. The Lions are similarly competitive, though they’re not at the level of the Vikings.
It’s strange to me this game is a pick ‘em, but I’m going to take this while it’s an even spread. The Vikings beat a tough Jets team last week even when they didn’t play to their full potential. With a win, the Vikings clinch the NFC North. Believe they will be fully focused.
Jaguars (4-8) at Titans (7-5), Sunday December 11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Titans 23, Jaguars 21
ATS
Jaguars +3.5
Total
Over 41.5
Analysis
An old-school AFC Central clash takes place when these once expansion teams face off for the 56th time. Anything over a field goal difference between these two teams makes me want to take the points, as these games always seem to come down to the wire. Treylon Burks looks is an x-factor. His skill level is impressive, but he sustained a concussion against the Eagles. The way Jacksonville’s 27th-ranked pass defense plays him will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game (if he’s active, that is).
Eagles (11-1) at Giants (7-4-1), Sunday December 11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Eagles 27, Giants 20
ATS
Eagles -6.5
Total
Over 45.5
Analysis
The Giants are good, but the Eagles are very good. Philadelphia simply has more weapons and more depth than the Giants do. Give the points here.
Ravens (8-4) at Steelers (5-7), Sunday December 11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Ravens 20, Steelers 19
ATS
Ravens +2
Total
Over 37.5
Analysis
For the 3rd consecutive week, the Ravens play in a 1-point game. The Steelers aren’t who they used to be, but Mike Tomlin is still in charge, and they’re still the Steelers. Tyler Huntley is virtually guaranteed to start Sunday, creating more reason to expect a close game.
Most games between these teams ends up in a three or four point difference. Sunday night, the spread opened favoring the Ravens by three points. It’s now favoring the Steelers by two points. Honestly, whichever team you think will win is the team I think you should take against the spread.
Baltimore’s top special teams unit will likely be influential in the outcome, and for that reason, I’m taking the Ravens and the points.
Chiefs (9-3) at Broncos (3-9), Sunday December 11 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
Chiefs 28, Broncos 14
ATS
Chiefs -9
Total
Under 43
Analysis
Kansas City had a setback on the road in Week 13, and they face another tough task in Week 14 as they head to Denver. While I think they will be better this week than they were last week, I think Denver will remain in striking distance for most of the game. The Broncos defense is so good that it allows a putrid offense to remain competitive. You may see longer drives than you’re accustomed to from Kansas City, but I still think they score a good amount, putting Denver’s offense in a position they don’t want to be in: playing from behind.
Buccaneers (6-6) at 49ers (8-4), Sunday December 11 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
49ers 27, Buccaneers 17
ATS
49ers -3
Total
Over 37.5
Analysis
This spread is way too low for me. Lock it in at -3 now while you can. Tampa travelling cross-country on a short week to play a superior team gives me confidence the 49ers will get the job done. Sure, San Francisco’s quarterback situation is in shambles, but their offense is built around a diverse running game and a quick passing game, so the learning curve for Brock Purdy shouldn’t be that steep.
Panthers (4-8) at Seahawks (7-5), Sunday December 11 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Seahawks 28, Panthers 9
ATS
Seattle -3.5
Total
Under 43.5
Analysis
Again, a spread that seems way too low. This spread should be closer to 8.5 or 9 points in my opinion. Obviously, I’ll be taking the Seahawks and laying the points. Kenneth Walker’s health is a concern, for sure, but when forced to throw exclusively last week, Geno Smith was unphased. The strength of this Panther’s defense is up front, so if the Seattle offensive line can block them up, this should be a rout. Even if the Seahawks can’t block the Panther’s rush, I don’t see much of an offensive threat emerging from Carolina.
Dolphins (8-4) at Chargers (6-6), Sunday December 11 at 8:20 pm ET
Pick
Dolphins 35, Chargers 21
ATS
Dolphins -3
Total
Over 52
Analysis
I think this is a shootout, and quite frankly the Chargers are in over their heads from a talent standpoint. The Dolphins got worked in Week 13, but they’re a talented, prideful group, so expect them to come out
firing on Sunday night. The Chargers, conversely, really need to figure out who they are now. There’s no more time to think. They must act. You can’t point to talent, flash, or potential in December. Are you going to make the play or not? I like Justin Herbert, but he’s 21-23 in his career. The expectation vs. reality graph for him is trending the wrong way.
Patriots (6-6) at Cardinals (4-8), Monday December 12 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Cardinals 23, Patriots 20
ATS
Cardinals +1
Total
Under 43.5
Analysis
This game features two average teams with some entertaining players, but both have been clouded by questionable coaching and lethargic quarterback play.
A bright spot: the running game. Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) and James Conner (Arizona) are averaging 5.1 and 4.4 yards per touch, respectively. Both have each scored four rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown on the season as well.
I feel like this game will come down to 3rd down conversion/3rd down defense.
Arizona’s 3rd down offense: 13th. New England’s 3rd down defense: 18th.
New England’s 3rd down offense: 24th. Arizona’s 3rd down defense: 27th.
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.