Orioles 2023 Minor League Roster Predictions

Amid all of the early offseason bemoaning of the Orioles not doing anything so far other than signing a modest upgrade over Jordan Lyles with Kyle Gibson and a handful of minor league signings (I’m willing to give them until spring training before I judge) it is easy to forget that the team is sitting on one of if not the best farm system in the sport. The top 10 is filled with guys who have already made their major league debuts or could easily be on the opening day roster like Adley Rutschman (obviously graduated but this will be his first full year), Gunnar Henderson, DL Hall, Kyle Stowers, Grayson Rodriguez, and Jordan Westburg. Colton Cowser, Joey Ortiz, and Connor Norby are not far behind. Despite being so top heavy there is also a depth behind it that fills out the lower minors and combined with the vastly improved player development system under the Mike Elias regime there is a decent chance that they find a way to replace those gaps in an adequate way once they inevitably graduate off of the list. The exercise of predicting the opening day minor league rosters months away from the season starting has become one of my favorite parts of the offseason. While health and trades can shuffle things a bit in the following months it’s a good way to get a feel for the overall health of the organization. Right now the talent pipeline is full, even if they use some of these guys to trade for a major league piece or two.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

AAA Norfolk

2B Connor Norby
CF Colton Cowser
SS Joey Ortiz
RF Nomar Mazara
LF Hudson Haskin
DH Franchy Cordero
3B Josh Lester
1B Lewin Diaz
C Maverick Handley

Bench: Mark Kolozsvary, Robert Neustrom, Daz Cameron, Greg Cullen

SP Drew Rom
SP Ryan Watson
SP Justin Armbruester
SP Chris Vallimont
SP Garrett Stallings
SP Spenser Watkins

RP: Nick Vespi, Mike Baumann, Easton Lucas, Nolan Hoffman, Adam Stauffer, Connor Loeprich, Cole Uvila

Watchability Rating: 8/10

Norfolk is more veteran heavy coming into 2023 than they were in 2022 mostly because Rutschman, Henderson, Stowers, and Vavra are most likely all going to start the season in Baltimore. I think the fact that they expect to be competing for a playoff spot also leads to the team wanting guys that can fill in at the major league level with less focus on development. Mazara, Cordero, Lester, and Diaz fill that role – lefty power bats that can fill in anywhere other than the middle of the field depending on the injury. There are still three top ten prospects in the everyday lineup (Cowser, Norby, Ortiz) and another that is in the top 15 (Haskin) plus Rutschman’s potential long term backup (Handley). The rotation is underrated with Watkins being a great depth piece in case of emergency for the major league team and the rest filled out with guys who at the very least should have big league roles in the bullpen at some point in their careers with the possible exception of Stallings. The bullpen has two guys in Vespi and Baumann who could easily start the season in the majors but there are only so many spots available. AAA has the best video feeds so it is nice that the Tides will be a team to watch most nights out on the field.

AA Bowie

SS Darell Hernaiz
RF Heston Kjerstad
3B Coby Mayo
LF John Rhodes
DH Cesar Prieto
1B TT Bowens
CF Donta’ Williams
2B Collin Burns
C Connor Pavalony

Bench: Randy Florentino, Adam Hall, Billy Cook, Zach Watson

SP Cade Povich
SP Noah Denoyer
SP Chayce McDermott
SP Jean Pinto
SP Carlos Tavera
SP Peter Van Loon

RP: Ignacio Feliz, Brandon Young, Houston Roth, Xavier Moore, Daniel Lloyd, Kade Strowd, Clayton McGinness

Watchability Rating: 8.5/10

While the top end talent isn’t as steep in Bowie as it will be in Norfolk (Mayo is the only top 10 prospect), it is deep with guys in the 11-30 range and has plenty of upside. Mayo will enter the season not far from his 21st birthday and has a real chance to be 2023’s version of 2022’s Gunnar Henderson. Hernaiz is 21 as well and is coming off breakout player of the year for the podcast. Kjerstad is coming off of winning MVP at the Arizona Fall League and a major comeback season after coming back from myocarditis and a hamstring injury right before last season started. Rhodes and Prieto will get a chance to live up to their potential after disappointing seasons for different reasons (injury for Rhodes, adjustment period/performance for Prieto). The pitching staff is loaded with breakout potential. Povich and McDermott are high strikeout guys acquired via trade at the July deadline. Denoyer and Tavera basically broke out in 2022 but had shortened seasons due to injury. Pinto has always been a personal favorite and Van Loon had a consistently solid season with A+ Aberdeen. Feliz, Young, and Roth are listed as relievers but are sure to get their fair share of starts as well if not being part of a tandem with some of the guys listed as starters.

A+ Aberdeen

CF Jud Fabian
RF Reed Trimble
LF Dylan Beavers
3B Max Wagner
DH Isaac De Leon
2B Frederick Bencosme
1B Jacob Teter
C Silas Ardoin
SS Adam Crampton

Bench: Adam Retzbach, Noelberth Romero, Trendon Craig, Isaac Bellony

SP Trace Bright
SP Deivy Cruz
SP Juan De Los Santos
SP Cameron Weston
SP Moises Chace
SP Keagan Gillies

RP: Dylan Heid, Jared Beck, Ryan Long, Alex Pham, Daniel Federman, Conor Grady, Connor Gillispie

Watchability Rating: 9/10

2022 draft picks and burgeoning international prospects represent. Fabian, Beavers, and Wagner were the Orioles second, third, and fourth picks in the latest MLB draft (not in that order) and they absolutely styled on the competition in the FCL and low A Delmarva in their brief professional debuts. A full season starting in high A and most likely finishing in AA Bowie with a shot at AAA Norfolk if things go well as they did for Colton Cowser and Connor Norby is a great place to start with this team. Add on a healthy Trimble from the 2021 draft, some other 2022 picks, and international breakouts Bencosme and De Leon and it is a team I will be trying to go down the street and watch live as much as possible in April and May. The pitching staff is similar with Bright, Weston, and the seven footer Beck coming out of the most recent draft and high upside international arms Cruz, De Los Santos, and Chace filling out the rotation. Bright in particular seems like the guy to watch when it comes to the college arms drafted putting himself in the Carlos Tavera role coming into 2022. There also some exciting replacements that could fill in for the inevitable loss of the top guys around mid-season.

A Delmarva

SS Jackson Holliday
2B Carter Young
1B Samuel Basallo
3B Anderson De Los Santos
RF Mishael Deson
DH Anthony Servideo
C Creed Willems
CF Douglas Hodo III
LF Elio Prado

Bench: Carlos Rodriguez, Luis Gonzalez, Stiven Acevedo, Angel Tejada

SP Carter Baumler
SP Juan Rojas
SP Reese Sharp
SP Preston Johnson
SP Alfred Vega
SP Luis Ortiz

RP: Yaqui Rivera, Graham Firoved, Juan Nunez, Raul Rangel, Bradley Brehmer, Cooper Chandler, Hayden Nierman

Watchability Rating: 8.5/10

As the Orioles presence in the international market continues to get deeper roots we continue to see their signings creep up the system and have a larger presence in the organization overall. Last season’s Shorebirds had a very heavy international presence and that will continue in 2023 but with some returning members of the 2022 team hopefully performing better with more experience under their belt. Deson, Prado, and Acevedo are guys that are still very young and have upside that they can unlock. Basallo and De Los Santos will be making their full season debuts and will have to go through the learning experience of playing in the cold, buying their own groceries, and the grind of a full schedule so expect growing pains but they are players that the On the Verge team are very high on. Burying the lede, Holliday might be number one in the watchability rankings (huh, good idea) as far as who I am going to make a point to watch as much as possible. He is very advanced for his age (he just turned 19 December 4th) and MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis is quoted as saying he could fly through the system a la Gunnar Henderson. Young and Hodo round out the 2022 draft picks in the lineup with a returning teenager in Willems and hopefully a healthy Servideo. The pitching staff much like Aberdeen is a mix of 2022 draft picks and high upside international arms – Sharp, Johnson, Rojas, Ortiz in the rotation – with the addition of minor league rule 5 pick Vega and, again, hopefully a healthy Baumler.

FCL Orioles

3B Leandro Arias
CF Braylin Tavera
2B Aron Estrada
LF Raylin Ramos
SS Maikol Hernandez
DH Edwin Amparo
RF Thomas Sosa
1B Jean Mata
C Julio Herrera

Bench: Cristian Benavides, Alfredo Velasquez, Junior Lara, Elis Cuevas

SP Zack Showalter
SP Cesar Alvarez
SP Anthony Morillo
SP Harif Frias
SP Jose Ramirez
SP Luis Osorio

RP: Jose Leandro, Luis De Leon, Eris Rodriguez, Noelin Cuevas, Andres Parra, Bryan Bautista, Grabiel Salazar

Watchability Rating: 8/10

Watchability is a biiiiit of a misnomer when we’re talking about a team that you can only watch if you are at the stadium in person in Sarasota or the other parts of Florida that they travel to. But in the theoretical situation where they were added to the MiLB TV feed or you have season tickets it is still a team I will be very interested in following. I am, perhaps foolishly, expecting this coming year’s FCL team to be more competitive than last year’s who lost the vast majority of their games despite having some interesting prospects. There will be even more of those with guys like Arias, Tavera, Estrada, Ramos, Amparo, and Benavides making their stateside debuts coming from the Domincan Summer League. Hernandez and to a lesser extent Lara will repeat the level and have another year of development for their potential breakouts to occur. On the pitching front there are a ton of intriguing arms coming up from the DSL combined with Alvarez and Morillo who I had pegged as breakout candidates heading into last season but dealt with injuries most of the year. High school draft pick Zack Showalter is perhaps the most exciting of the pitchers since it is rare that the Orioles make that leap in the draft combined with the fact that he didn’t make his professional debut at the end of the 2022 season like most of the other drafted pitchers did. I would bet that at least a handful of these guys will get the bump up to Delmarva at some point only to eventually be replaced by the 2023 draft class. Ah, the circle of baseball life…