Last week: ATS 6-7, over/under 8-5
Year to date: ATS 108-93-7, over/under 105-100-3
49ers (9-4) at Seahawks (7-6), Thursday 12/15 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
49ers 24, Seahawks 17
ATS
49ers -3.5
Total
Under 43.5
Analysis
Expect San Francisco to win this one outright, matching Seattle step for step. The potential loss of Deebo Samuel will hurt, but the Niners should be able to overcome it. That said, Seattle’s running back core is banged up themselves, so Geno Smith will have a tall task ahead of him in attempting to break down this 49ers pass defense.
I feel like most Thursday night games—especially divisional matchups—are usually hard fought and subsequently hit the under. That’s what I’m predicting here.
Colts (4-8-1) at Vikings (10-3), Saturday 12/17 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Vikings 28, Colts 20
ATS
Vikings -4
Total
Over 47.5
Analysis
Minnesota got handled last week in Detroit, something I definitely did not see coming. This week, they play host to a poor Colts team, so logic would tell you the Vikings will bounce back.
The only chance I see the Colts having is if Minnesota’s Christian Darrisaw and Garrett Bradbury miss this week like they did last week. Those two offensive linemen are key to the Vikings’ plans. If they are up, I think it’s at least a touchdown victory for the Vikings. Quite frankly, the Colts don’t have the horses to beat the Vikings in a shootout.
Ravens (9-4) at Browns (5-8), Saturday 12/17 at 4:30 pm ET
Pick
Ravens 23, Browns 20
ATS
Ravens +2.5
Total
Over 37.5
Analysis
The Ravens are the better team. If Roquan Smith was still on the Bears, I’d have significantly less confidence in this pick. However, Smith is a Raven and has been playing lights out since his debut in New Orleans. Marcus Williams returned last week, and to no one’s surprise, made an interception. Williams has now forced four interceptions in six games this year.
In Week 7, Baltimore beat Cleveland by this same score (23-20). Jacoby Brissett was the Browns’ quarterback then. Even though Deshaun Watson is under center now, the Browns’ identity is still centered around Nick Chubb and the running game. If the Ravens can stop that, which I think they will, they should be able to win their 10th game of the year for the 9th time under John Harbaugh.
Dolphins (8-5) at Bills (10-3), Saturday 12/17 at 4:30 pm ET
Pick
Dolphins 21, Bills 20
ATS
Dolphins +7.5
Total
Under 43.5
Analysis
All the way back in Week 3, Miami hosted Buffalo and came away victorious by a final score of 21-19. The Dolphins were dominated in total yardage, 497-212, yet they made the plays that mattered. Miami had the ball for less than 20 minutes on offense, gave up 380 yards passing on defense, but still won the game.
Since then, Miami gained the services of defensive end Bradley Chubb to fortify their pass rush. On the flip side, Buffalo has won eight of their last 10 games since that loss in Miami.
Everything to me points to a game decided by three points or less. I don’t necessarily have confidence Miami will win outright, but I definitely think 7 1/2 points is too much not to take.
Eagles (12-1) at Bears (3-10), Sunday 12/18 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Eagles 38, Bears 10
ATS
Eagles -9
Total
Under 48.5
Analysis
Philly is absolutely rolling. There’s no reason to think they get tripped up this week. They’ve already clinched a playoff spot and are now very much in pursuit of the NFC’s top seed. Chicago, conversely, is eliminated from playoff contention.
Falcons (5-8) at Saints (4-9), Sunday 12/18 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Falcons 27, Saints 23
ATS
Falcons +4
Total
Over 43
Analysis
This game features a matchup of two football teams that are average at best. Both teams are coming off a bye in Week 14 after which they lost a one-possession game in Week 13. The Falcons have made a switch at quarterback, from Marcus Mariota to rookie Desmond Ritter. This is the typical “what do you have to lose” situation. Given the fact rookie wide receiver Drake London was beginning to peak before the bye, I have to imagine the Falcons will be in good rhythm heading into this week.
All things considered the Saints might be the worst team in football. Take the Falcons and the points.
Lions (6-7) at Jets (7-6), Sunday 12/18 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Lions 31, Jets 21
ATS
Lions PK
Total
Over 45
Analysis
I mean, the Lions are kind of good. They’re thinking “playoffs,” while the Jets, playing in the only division where each team has a positive point differential, is thinking “survive.”
Steelers (5-8) at Panthers (5-8), Sunday 12/18 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Steelers 19, Panthers 17
ATS
Steelers +2.5
Total
Under 38.5
Analysis
You know what’s coming. The Steelers as an underdog means I’m taking the points. Though the Ravens made the Steelers look poor last week, Pittsburgh is a prideful bunch. Carolina is performing better now than they were in the beginning of the year, but I think the experience of the Steelers is the x-factor here.
Cowboys (10-3) at Jaguars (5-8), Sunday 12/18 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Cowboys 28, Jaguars 17
ATS
Cowboys -5
Total
Under 47.5
Analysis
Dallas is on a mission and is looking to compete for the NFC’s top seed. Conversely, I’m not sure Jacksonville can sustain their momentum much longer. Five is a strange number for a point spread, so I’m more tentative on this game than others. That said, the Cowboys are the better team that I think wins by at least a touchdown.
Chiefs (10-3) at Texans (1-11-1), Sunday 12/18 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Chiefs 35, Texans 13
ATS
Chiefs -14
Total
Under 49
Analysis
I would be shocked if Patrick Mahomes throws multiple interceptions again this week. Even though the Chiefs won in Week 14, they left a lot of plays on the field. Expect a motivated group this week in Houston.
Cardinals (4-9) at Broncos (3-10), Sunday 12/18 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
Broncos 17, Cardinals 6
ATS
Broncos -3
Total
Under 36.5
Analysis
How badly is Kyler Murray hurt? It was announced Tuesday afternoon that he tore his ACL and is out for the remainder of the season. How Colt McCoy can execute the Arizona offense will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game. I’m definitely taking the under, but as for picking against the spread, I will (reluctantly) go with the Broncos as they’re at home and their defense is playing great football.
Patriots (7-6) at Raiders (5-8), Sunday 12/18 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
Patriots 24, Raiders 21
ATS
Patriots PK
Total
Over 44.5
Analysis
Can the Patriots stop (or even slow down) Josh Jacobs? I think they can hold him to 80 rushing yards or less, but I don’t have much faith in the Raiders holding a lead these days .
Take the Patriots but do so cautiously. Take Belichick over McDaniels.
Titans (7-6) at Chargers (7-6), Sunday 12/18 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Chargers 31, Titans 21
ATS
Chargers -3
Total
Over 46
Analysis
Los Angeles took care of the Dolphins last week, and now face another hard-nosed squad this week when they host the Titans. I feel like the Chargers will be ahead throughout, but a late score will make the final look more lopsided than the game actually was.
I have no idea how the Titans will defend Mike Williams or Austin Ekeler. Put simply, the Chargers have more options—on both sides of the ball—than the Titans do.
Bengals (9-4) at Buccaneers (6-7), Sunday 12/18 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Bengals 27, Buccaneers 20
ATS
Bengals -3.5
Total
Over 42
Analysis
Look how far the Buccaneers have fallen. They look pitiful. The Bengals, however, are clearly trending upward and cruised past a stretch of games where they were without Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Nixon. Not an easy task, to say the least. Take the Bengals, give the points, and don’t look back.
Giants (7-5-1) at Commanders (7-5-1), Sunday 12/18 at 8:20 pm ET
Pick
Giants 23, Commanders 20
ATS
Giants +4.5
Total
Over 40
Analysis
Giants win by a field goal. I just feel like they have a more in the tank than the Commanders do. When push comes to shove, I like Saquon Barkley to make the difference. Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel are a problem to defend, so the Giants will need to play excellent defense this week. They currently rank 17th, so there’s plenty of ambiguity surrounding this matchup.
Two weeks ago, these teams tied, 20-20, in New York. Obviously, not much has changed. The fact that the Giants are getting 4 1/2 points here seals it for me. Moreover, New York is the 2nd-best team in the league in terms of percentage of games without an interception thrown. In other words, there’s an overwhelming chance the Giants don’t throw an interception this week.
Take the Giants and the points.
Rams (4-9) at Packers (5-8), Monday 12/19 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Rams 24, Packers 19
ATS
Rams +7.5
Total
Over 40
Analysis
There is no way the Packers should be favored. They are a mess. I know the Rams have had a disappointing season to say the least, but last week showed you just how much they’re capable of. I have much more confidence in their coaching staff and roster than I do in the Packers staff and roster.
Think about how many key players the Rams lost recently and consider how they responded last week. Now, think about how the Packers rank 23rd, 21st, and 30th in scoring offense, scoring defense, and special teams (respectively).
I’m iffy on the point total, but not the spread. Los Angeles is one of my Top 5 strongest plays of the week.
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.