The Terps will have an opportunity to win Saturday, primarily because of styles of play.
Duke likes to get out and run, and that transition game feeds into what MD does best.
MD’s guards are scoring a lot of points in the paint… this game will be more of the same… look for Bowie, and Milbourne to thrive, and do not be surprised by large efforts from Mosley and Tucker.
That said, Duke is not #2 in the Nation, 17-1 overall, and 4-0 in the ACC by accident.
Wins against – Presbyterian, Georgia Southern, Rhode Island, Southern Ill., Michigan (by 15), Montana, Duquesne, @Purdue, NC Asheville, Xavier, Loyala (MD), VaTech, Davidson, @FSU, Georgetown, NCST
Loss against – @Michigan (by 8)
So, how did Michigan beat Duke?
1) Familiarity – Michigan had just played Duke on a neutral court 3 weeks prior… while they had lost by 15, they had pulled some positives from that game, and believed they could win on their home court.
2) Michigan used a 1-3-1 zone that held Duke to 7 of 33 from 3.
3) Duke had just come off a big win vs Purdue…. Michigan might not have had their full attention.
4) Duke had 4 players in double figures, but Henderson was held to 11.
5) Michigan and Duke were equal on the boards… 33 a piece…
6) Duke had only 6 foul shots, Michigan was 18 for 22…
7) Michigan was 7 for 16 from 3.
Duke has 4 players avg in double figures:
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/teams/dau/stats
Match-ups
G Nolan Smith vs G Adrian Bowie
G Jon Scheyer vs G Eric Hayes
G Gerald Henderson vs G. Greivis Vasquez
F Kyle Singler vs F Landon Milbourne
C Brian Zoubek vs F David Neal
G Greg Paulus vs G Sean Mosley
G Elliott Williams vs G Cliff Tucker
F Lance Thomas vs F Dino Gregory
F David McClure vs C Braxton Dupree
Henderson has raised his game, and Singler, Thomas, and Zoubek represent a challenge to MD with their height and post skills… but overall I feel pretty good about the match-ups.
MD does not need to win this game, but they do need to play well…. To pull off the upset, the following would have to happen:
A) Terps have to believe they can win, their familiarity with Duke helps them in that regard.
B) Not sure I see MD playing a lot of zone (though they have played more this year vs seasons past), but MD has to get out on the shooters and contest shots.
C) Duke is caught looking ahead to their matchup vs Wake next week.
D) Vasquez, Mosley, and Tucker disrupt Henderson just enough.
E) Have to compete on the boards.
F) Have to limit Duke’s foul shots, and you have to get to the line.
G) Terps have to shoot a good percentage on the threes they take, and limit their shots from 3 overall.
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Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.