Earlier this month, the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 16-14. It was a huge win for Baltimore as they kept pace in the AFC North. Pittsburgh got two touchdowns immediately following two Marlon Humphrey defensive pass interference calls. Besides that, Baltimore was in control for most of that game.
The Ravens were without Lamar Jackson that day, as they may be without him this Sunday night. They deployed a run-heavy gameplan and executed it very well. Baltimore ran for 215 yards (5.1 per carry), compared to Pittsburgh’s 65 yards (3.3 per carry).
Although Tyler Huntley threw for only 88 yards, he didn’t throw an interception. Unfortunately for the Steelers, Kenny Pickett, despite throwing for 264 yards, threw three picks. More yards doesn’t always equate to a better performance.
This time around, I expect a similar game plan and outcome from both teams. Their previous matchup was a mere three weeks ago. A team can’t change that much in such short time, even if they wanted to. There are a few key spots the Ravens need to focus on in this game. Here are three keys to victory for the Ravens in their 58th game all-time against the Steelers.
Follow the plan
This is the most used cliché in sports, but it holds true: just follow the plan. Don’t do anything out of the ordinary. This time of year, games are won by who makes the least mistakes, as opposed to earlier in the year when teams are more prone to experiment with different personnel groupings and play calls.
Especially if Lamar Jackson is inactive, the Ravens ought to do what they did last time around. Run the ball. Stay on schedule with regards to down and distance. Convert third downs with Demarcus Robinson and Mark Andrews. Sustain drives. Punt when necessary. Take points when you can get them. Make life very uncomfortable for Kenny Pickett in his first-ever game in Baltimore.
Blitz Pickett
Baltimore ranks 5th in the NFL in sacks per game, while Pittsburgh ranks 16th in the NFL in sacks allowed per game. That tells me the Steelers will present a unified front to start the game but will be susceptible to breaking down as time goes on. That’s all the more reason the Ravens ought to continue to bring the heat throughout the night. When the game gets close and your offensive line gets tired, they’re more likely to break down if you’ve hit them with an incessant pass rush (as opposed to dropping players in coverage).
Three weeks ago, the Steelers combined for 31 pass attempts and a quarterback rating below 70. If the Ravens blitz 18-19 times this week (roughly 60 percent of 31 attempts), I think that would provide consistent pressure without adversely affecting the back end of their defense.
It won’t help your blood pressure at all, but I think this is the right move for Coach Macdonald to make Sunday.
Long drives on offense
Play to your strengths. Run the ball. Exhaust their defenders. Control the tempo. Keep your defense fresh.
Baltimore is tied for 2nd (Tennessee) for most time per play (30.8 seconds). Keep that up. It’s usually a good idea to control the clock but is especially rewarding when you’re facing your arch rival who’s desperate for a win.
Vegas
Baltimore is 7-7 under John Harbaugh when hosting Pittsburgh, and 13-13 when hosting Pittsburgh, all-time. You literally cannot get a more even matchup than that.
Baltimore has the edge in the running game, Pittsburgh has the edge in the passing game. Baltimore has the edge in special teams. The Ravens seemingly have a better personnel group on defense, but the Steelers are right there with them.
Over the last three games:
- Ravens: 2-1, 36 points allowed, 0 point differential
- Steelers: 2-1, 42 points allowed, +9 point differential
These stats underscore how predictable this game is likely to be. A lot of times when you analyze lines and point totals, there are certain variables that you predict using instinct rather than precedent. While nothing is guaranteed, in the case of this game, it’s fairly safe to say precedent will prevail.
If you ever read my betting article ‘The Lineup,’ you know I’m a proponent of taking the Steelers when they’re the underdogs, but I’m also going to take the Ravens money line.
I just don’t think, as flawed as this season has been at times, the Ravens will lose this game to this team. Their entire program is built upon perseverance for the sole reason to win games like this.
The official line: Ravens -2.5, over/under 35
Prediction: Ravens 19, Steelers 17 (+2.5, over)
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
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