For the third time this season and in back-to-back to weeks, the Ravens and the Bengals will square off but this time it will be to advance to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The Ravens lost to the Bengals this past Sunday but did not dress most of their key offensive players. The defense, however, did all dress and played with and edge we have not seen this season. Roquan Smith, was flying all over the field making tackles and being a real disruptive force. So much so that Bengals players and fans both thought the Ravens were taking cheap shots. The irony of the Bengals to speak on dirty hits is comical, but I will digress. Here are 3 keys to victory if the Ravens want to overcome the favorite, Bengals.
Key #1: Keep doing what you’re doing against Joe Burrow.
Joe Burrow has enjoyed an MVP-caliber season but has struggled somewhat vs the Ravens and their 2-high look on defense. In his first game vs the Ravens, Joe Burrow had a 58 PFF grade, 6.2 yards per attempt and one interception. He was also sacked twice and had a measly 4.2 average depth of target. The Ravens did not resort to the blitz much and nearly took everything away deep. Burrow only completed 4 passes over ten yards and only attempted 1 pass over 20 yards. After Burrow destroyed the Ravens backups last season, he has come down to earth this season. In his second game vs the Ravens, Burrow was slightly better. His PFF grade was 71.3, but he did also have two turnover-worthy plays and was held to only 5.1 yards per attempt. As good as Burrow has been this season, two of his worst games were against the Ravens, he averaged a zero EPA per play in their first matchup and a negative EPA per play in this past Sunday’s game. Will that continue? Maybe. The Ravens should be at full strength on defense, they could even have Marcus Peters back for this contest which could be a difference in the game. Expect the defense to continue getting after Burrow as well, he escaped multiple sacks and made some great elusive moves on the way. I’m sure that will be a point of emphasis this week as the coaches gameplan for their biggest game of the season.
Key #2: Need Lamar Jackson back.
Regardless of how well the defense has played against Burrow, they cannot win the game relying on defense. This team needs Lamar Jackson back in the worst way possible. Tyler Huntley is a fine backup but the guy simply cannot lead touchdown drives and is nowhere near the threat of a runner as Jackson is. The Bengals defense has been stout vs the run and pass but Jackson provides a matchup nightmare for every level of the defense. It is still unknown if Lamar will play but if he does, he gives this team their only chance at winning. Jackson finished as PFF’s fifth highest graded quarterback this season and was second overall in rushing grade behind Josh Allen. They will need his rushing ability to keep the defense honest. But how healthy is Lamar? Has he been purposely staying out to get ready for the playoffs? Is it a contract thing? Or is he really hurt? No one knows. But the only thing people know is that the Ravens have very little chance at winning without their MVP quarterback. We have seen over the last two seasons what it is like without Lamar. The team can’t win and the team can’t score. It is the simple reality of the situation. Hopefully we see #8 back this week.
Key #3: Need to have a pass rush.
As we know, the Ravens have struggled getting after the QB this season. And as we know, the Bengals have one of the best wide receiver groups in the league who can get open quick. The defense needs to generate pressure and force some mistakes if they want a chance. Burrow threw a pick in their first game and lost a fumble in this past Sunday’s game. David Ojabo got his first sack and first forced fumble of his career. His PFF grade was 83.2. To put into perspective, Odafe Oweh has not had a game above 77 this entire season. The Bengals will also not have two starting linemen available in this game including Right Tackle, La’el Collins. This could be an interesting matchup to watch. It is worth noting, the Ravens did have 23 pressures in the game as well which is one of their highest numbers all season. That is surely something they will need if they don’t want the game to get out of hand. The defensive line looks to be the healthiest they have been all season. With Calais Campbell back and Ojabo finally getting meaningful playing time, the trenches could be a place where the game will be decided.
The Ravens open up as 6.5 road underdogs. That number can surely move up or down depending on how the QB situation pans out. But the fact remains the same, this team will only be relevant in these playoffs if Jackson can play. Jackson is the Ravens offense and they go as he goes. The defense has been nothing short of elite since they acquired Smith. But as you can see, having an elite defense sometimes does not matter if the offense is incapable of scoring. The defense has allowed 20 or less points in 5 straight games are only 2-3 because of the offensive ineptitude. But if you can pair Lamar Jackson with this defense, there is no telling how far this team can go.
Mirzet was born in Bosnia and raised in upstate NY. Mirzet became a huge fan of the ravens when he first moved to the country and has never looked back. Mirzet is also a former base data analyst at Pro Football Focus. Using advanced metrics and stats has always been a passion of his when discussing anything football-related. Salihovic also lived in Baltimore shortly after he went to college at SUNY Cortland, he currently resides in Utica, NY.