Stock Up, Stock Down In Each Power 6 Conference

Big East: Marquette

It has been apparent since the beginning of the season that Marquette was being very disrespected, considering they were projected to finish 9th in the Preseason Big East poll. However, even the people that were the highest on this Marquette team didn’t expect them to be this good. Just one season after losing top two leading scorers Justin Lewis and Darryl Morsell, the Golden Eagles sit at #16 in the AP Top 25 and just a half game out of first place in the Big East Standings, behind Xavier. Marquette has started off Big East play, collecting home victories over UConn, Providence and Creighton, plus have won at Villanova, at Seton Hall and at St. Johns. Being able to win games on the road away from your own building is a huge determining factor in figuring out who can win games in the NCAA Tournament.

There aren’t many teams in College Basketball with better chemistry than Marquette. Tyler Kolek is currently leading the Big East and is 3rd in the country in Assists per game with 7.8. Every single time Marquette takes the floor, it is noticeable how everyone knows exactly what their teammates are doing on the court at all times. Not many players in the country have taken a bigger leap this season than big man Oso Ighodoro. The Sophomore from Chandler, Arizona is currently averaging 12.2 points and 6.2 rebounds per game, after averaging 5.5 and 3.3 in each category respectfully last season. With the improved shot making of Kam Jones and Oliver-Maxence Prosper, this Marquette team has all the ingredients for a deep NCAA Tournament run. Just like many other coaches around the country, Shaka Smart needed the proper fit to get back on track, and it is clear that place for him was Marquette, especially compared to Texas. Being home in Milwaukee, has allowed Smart to bring in players that fit his unique style of basketball, which is part of the reason why Marquette is a legitimate Final 4 Contender.

Verdict: Stock Up

Big 12: Texas Tech

Following Chris Beard’s shocking departure, the first season of the Mark Adam’s era could not have gone any better in Lubbock. The Red Raiders, finished 27-10 overall and 12-6 in Big 12 play, in route to a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and a Sweet 16 Appearance. The issue however was going into this season, Texas Tech had lost seven of their top eight scorers from last season’s team, which is not easy to replace. Two of these players were remarkable gets from the Transfer Portal including Bryson Williams from UTEP and Adonis Arms from Winthrop, who both developed into NBA caliber players from the Red Raiders. In addition, Texas Tech also lost a pair of players that were holdovers from the Chris Beard era in Kevin McCullar and Terrance Shannon Jr., and all four of these players helped anchor a truly elite defense.

Trying to replace these guys wouldn’t be easy, however Mark Adams tried to go to work in the Transfer Portal again, this time with NIL as a significant factor. Texas Tech added some very talented players, including the 2021 WAC Player of the Year Fardaws Aimaq, De’Vion Harmon who has started at Point Guard for Oklahoma in the NCAA Tournament, and sharpshooter Kerwin Walton from North Carolina. While these pieces looked very good on paper, they haven’t necessarily translated to as many wins, as Texas Tech is currently sitting in last place in the Big 12 at 0-8. The Red Raider’s weren’t able to secure many quality wins outside of conference play, considering the only two teams they beat in the Power 6 during that stretch were Louisville and Georgetown. Texas Tech currently ranks 98th in the country in scoring defense and 51st in adjusted defensive efficiency, after rankings towards the top in both categories last season. As great a job as Mark Adams did in his first season, it was never going to be easy replacing so many players that departed. Adams played a big role in the success on the defensive side of the ball which helped Texas Tech win so many big games recently, and he will need to go back to basics this offseason, finding the right personnel to get closer to returning to that elite form.

Verdict: Stock Down

Pac 12: Oregon

From the span of 2013-2021 there weren’t many coaches in College Basketball better than Dana Altman, as he led Oregon to 13 NCAA Tournament wins, a Final 4, three Pac 12 Tournament Titles and four Pac 12 Regular Season Titles. The last two years however, Oregon has not seen the same success nor consistency, which not many basketball fans in Eugene are used to. The Ducks have struggled to find consistency recently, considering they had one of their best and most complete performances of the season on January 14th against Arizona. In that game Oregon blew out one of the better teams in College Basketball, behind 22 points for Senior big man N’Fale Dante and 27 points from South Carolina Transfer Jermaine Cousinard, who had just returned from a knee injury. Just three nights before, Oregon no-showed for their home game against Arizona State, allowing the Sun Devils to shoot 45% from three and 52% from the field on the night.

The Ducks just finished up their road trip to the Bay Area, beating a bad California team easily on Wednesday night, just to follow it up with another disappointing performance against Stanford on Saturday. While the flashes are there, Oregon has not shown they can play consistent enough basketball, which is puzzling for a program that was so consistently good for a very long time recently. Dana Altman’s recruiting philosophy, of having his assistant coaches go after some of the best players available, and being able to coach them up might have to be adjusted sooner rather than later if these frustrating results continue. There aren’t currently a ton of opportunities to move the needle for your NCAA Tournament resume in the Pac 12, considering there are only two teams in UCLA and Arizona definitely going to the big dance. If Oregon wants to get back to the big dance, winning the Pac 12 Tournament is looking like their only hope.

 Verdict: Stock Down

ACC: North Carolina State

NC State has not made the NCAA Tournament since Kevin Keatts first year in Raleigh, back in 2018 and the pressure was on to get back to the big dance this season. Especially following a disastrous 2022 season that featured only 11 wins, which tied for their lowest win total in a season since 1994. Despite these results since 2018, Keatts is a much better coach than most would realize, considering NC State was right up there among the final teams to miss the big dance in 2019. In addition, the Wolfpack likely would have heard their name called on Selection Sunday in 2020, if the big dance doesn’t get postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As poorly as last season went, NC State did suffer a bevy of injuries including to starting big man Manny Bates, who was lost for the season after a shoulder injury suffered in the first five minutes of NC State’s opening game.

This season, the return of Terquavion Smith was the best news any Wolfpack fan could have hoped for. The 6’4” Guard from Greenville, North Carolina, opted to return to school and pass up the NBA Draft. Smith easily could have gone pro, after averaging 16.3 points per game last season and really impressing in the NBA Draft Combine. With that being said, Smith decided to return to school for one more run and alongside running mates and former Power 6 transfers, Jarkelll Joiner and Casey Morsell, there aren’t many better backcourts in the ACC. The Wolfpack have already picked up quality victories over Duke, Miami and Virginia Tech, which should help get them back to their first big dance since 2018. Keatts has proven to be an underrated coach that knows what it takes to win dating back to his days at UNC Wilmington and his Wolfpack are a team on the rise in the ACC.

Verdict: Stock Up

Big Ten: Indiana

It has been a rollercoaster season in Bloomington, from the high preseason expectations, to struggling at the start of conference play, to the current four game winning streak. There isn’t a team in College Basketball that won’t face any adversity for the entirety of the season, but it seems like Indiana tends to find themselves in situations with their backs against the wall. The Hoosiers started off the season, 8-2 with victories at Xavier and over North Carolina. Despite losing to Rutgers in their Big Ten Conference opener, the Hoosiers were looking like the team many people expected to win the Big Ten in the preseason. Things came to a halt though, when starting Point Guard Xavier Johnson suffered a serious foot injury on December 17th at Kansas. Indiana then lost their next three games of Big Ten Conference play without Johnson, and it felt like everything might be slipping away. During that losing streak, Senior big man Race Thompson also suffered an injury and at the time many considered it could be season ending. This is an Indiana team that needed to rally and win two games in the Big Ten Tournament last season just to secure an NCAA Tournament bid and it was looking like a serious possibility that they wouldn’t be able to get back.

Following a road loss to Penn State on January 11th to extend their losing streak to three, a flip switched for Indiana to blow out Wisconsin on January 14th. The Hoosiers were then able to keep the momentum rolling with their biggest victory and most complete effort of the season, beating Illinois in Champaign 80-65 and the game wasn’t even that close. The Hoosiers were then able to extend their winning streak to three games following a massive victory over Michigan State on Sunday, and even found a way to beat Minnesota on Wednesday night without Head Coach Mike Woodson. This would have been a killer loss for Indiana, considering the Gophers are the clear worst team in the Big Ten and would have destroyed any momentum built from the three-game winning streak. Indiana is now in position to make their second consecutive NCAA Tournament, and they wouldn’t be here without Trayce Jackson-Davis who is playing at a superstar level. Jackson-Davis has combined for 91 points and 45 rebounds in Indiana’s last three games and there is no one in the country currently playing any better.

Verdict: Stock Up

SEC: Auburn

Bruce Pearl has established himself as one of the premier coaches in the country, bringing Auburn to their first Final 4 in 2019, and also getting the Tigers to the #1 ranked team in the country last season. Both of these accomplishments were a first for the Auburn basketball program, and with a very passionate fanbase, Auburn has taken off. The Tigers have gotten off to a very impressive 16-4 start, considering they lost both members of last season’s starting frontcourt in Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler, both of whom were first round picks in the 2022 NBA Draft and are killing it as pros. Before last night, Auburn had the longest active home winning streak in the country at 28 consecutive games, but that is no more thanks to Texas A&M. One of the bigger worries for Auburn going into the season was how far can their Guards take them, after being very hot and cold last season? The trio of Wendell Green Jr. Allen Flannigan and KD Johnson have shown flashes, but similar to last season it is hard to rely on them as your main contributors on a night in-night out basis.

The Tigers really struggled from three-point range in their home loss to Texas A&M, shooting 3/16 from three and without Guards you can rely on, it can be difficult to advance in the month of March. Even with Smith and Kessler last season, Auburn lost in disappointing fashion to Miami in the Round of 32 and one of the big reasons for that was the clear advantage Miami had at the Guard position. Despite Pearl being one of the better coaches in the country, this Auburn team still has some tough challenges in SEC play including two games against Tennessee, two against Alabama and a trip to Lexington to face Kentucky. By season’s end I wouldn’t be shocked if this Auburn team is completely out of the Top 25.