MLS 2023 – What’s In Store for Fans this Summer?

American soccer is back (ok and Canada) starting this weekend and there are several story lines to keep an eye on this season. We’ll get to the annual team by team run down in a bit but first lets look at this story lines:

1. Fans have learned over the last several years to not become to tied to individual players. The MLS is quickly becoming one of the top development leagues in the world. Every January and each summer fans, depending on their perspective, keep a keen eye on the transfer windows. While there are certainly transfers into MLS (and some have been very good players, e.g. Zlatan Ibrahimovic) by and large they have tended to be either older players toward the tail end of their playing career (think Wayne Rooney) or role players mostly brought in from Central and South American clubs. And those players certainly bolster a sides chances. But what mostly happens is young potential stars on the verge of breakout seasons transfer out to Europe. For most casual fans, this seems to be a “bad” thing for their MLS club. Its hard to develop and maintain a strong competitive club when you keep losing key players. But is it really a “bad” thing? Not necessarily, in fact if a club is running their academy system well its actually a good thing, especially in the long run. Lets look at the Philadelphia Union as a test case. In January 2021, the Union transferred Brenden Aaronson to Red Bull Salzburg in the Austrian Bundesliga for $13.5M. Then in July of last summer Salzburg sent him on to Leeds United in the EPL for $35M. The Union retained a “sell on fee” of 15% so they got an additional $5M. Money to put back into their youth development program. And did it hurt the Union on the field? The Union finished 1st in the Eastern Conference in 2020 (Aaronson’s last season with them). They fell all the way down to 2nd in 2021 and were back on top in 2022? Pretty hard to argue with those results! Certainly all transfers don’t work out like this one did but MLS fans understand that its part of the deal.
2. Playoffs – Every fan has their own opinion on playoffs. The general trend in American sports for a long time is to expand them more and more. The diehard fans argue that it keeps the season more interesting if their team is still in the playoff hunt late in the season. And certainly that’s true. And then the tried and true comment along the lines of “just make the playoffs then anything can happen.” Of course the driver behind this all isn’t for the fans to be happy. Its for more money. More games mean more revenue especially with TV contracts. Then there are us old school fans who don’t care as much for this approach. It diminishes the regular season and increases the chances for fluky results, especially in a low scoring sport like soccer. So depending on how you view this you are going to love or dislike the new playoff format for 2023. Couple of major changes. First, they have added a play in game. Seeds 8 and 9 in each conference will face each other in a single match with the winner moving on at the home of the 8 seed. If tied at the end of regulation they will play an extra 30 minutes and if still tied to to penalty kicks. Then the remaining 8 teams in each conference will then play in Round 1 which will be a best of three series, home-away-home. There will be no ties and no extra time. If a match is tied at the end of regulation they will go straight to penalty kicks. Then the remaining teams will go the the conference semi-finals. Back to single elimination matches hosted by the higher seed. If tied at the end of regulation they will play 30 minutes of extra time and if still tied then go to penalty kicks. The remaining teams then play in the conference finals with the same format as the semi-finals. Finally, the remaining two teams will play for the Audi Cup at the home of the highest seed.
3. For watching the matches this summer fans will have two options. Thirty-four matches will be shown this year between Fox and Fox Sports1 which will be the most live matches shown in a MLS season to date. But as with all sports now, streaming seems to be the way they are headed and for this season avid fans can get every single MLS match via the Apple TV app subscription service.
4. Club #29, St, Louis City SC joins the league. St. Louis has long been a hot bed for American soccer and fans have waited a long time to garner an expansion slot and they finally have it. The fans should come out in droves. What remains to be seen is how long they will stay energized while the club finds a winning set of players and tactics.

With that back drop lets look at each club and what to expect for 2023.

Eastern Conference

Atlanta FC:

They were hit hard by the injury bug last year. Josef Martinez was a bit off. Expect a big turnaround in Atlanta and the addition of CB Luis Abram along with Miles Robinson may give them one of the best middle defenses in the league. Too much talent to not make the playoffs again.

2022 – 11th

2023 Projection – 3rd

CF Montreal:

Some pundits think Montreal is experienced enough and has enough talent to not drop off too much from last years stellar season. I am not one of those. They lost Djorde Mihailovic to Europe and while they survived ok last season when he was out they were clearly not near as good as when he was playing. And his expected replacement, Matko Miljevic is going to msis the start of the season with a knee injury. I expect them to regress a fair bit although still likely to make the playoffs especially given this years expansion.

2022 – 2nd

2023 Projection – 7th

Charlotte FC:

The fans LOVE the Crown averaging just over 36,000 fans/match second to only Atlanta. They need to keep the faith though as this isn’t going to be a year they make a leap. They just don’t have enough in the attack (last years staring wingers can’t hit the barn from the inside. LW Kamil Jozwiak has one goal in is last almost 3 years and RW Kerwin Vargas zero goals or assists in his 13 appearances last year. They have some other options and expect manager Christian Lattanzanio to try a number of roster combinations to see if he can find some magic. Maybe he can pull a rabbit out of his hat?

2022 – 9th

2023 Projection – 12th

Chicago Fire:

For a number of years now they have been a team trying to establish and identify. The one identity they have establish is that they are pretty damn good at developing keepers. Young start Gabriel Slonina was solid last season and has transferred to Chelsea in the EPL. But right behind him is U20 keeper Chris Brady. Hard to know yet which one of those two guys will turn out to be the best but don’t be surprised if they both have long stellar careers in Europe. This year Fire fans will need Brady to stand on his head.

2022 – 12th

2023 Projection – 13th

Columbus Crew:

The good news is that they went out and bought manager Wilfried Nancy from Montreal. Nancy showed how could mold a solid contending team but not overnight. Look for the Crew to struggle a bit in the early season as they try and figure out their roles in the new system under Nancy. By then end of the season we will have a much better idea if these players fit the mold of his system. If they do they could move back toward the playoffs next season but don’t see that from then this year other than perhaps a shot at the play in match.

2021 – 8th

2023 Projection – 10th

D.C. United:

Another side where we can jump right to the short version. According to manager Wayne Rooney, DC expects to start Matai Akinmboni at CB. One problem with that….he’s 16 years old. 16 year old kids just don’t see the field at CB especially as a starter. Lord help DC fans this summer.

2022 – 14th

2023 Projection – 15th

FC Cincinnati:

A surprise from last season with one of the leagues best attacks and they bolstered their defense brining in midfielder Obinna Nwobodo and CB Matt Miazga. With those two in the lineup Cincy lost just once in their final 9 regular season matches and gave both Red Bulls and the Union fits in the playoffs. They are poised for a deep run this year.

2022 – 5th

2023 – 4th

Inter Miami CF:

Inter Miami has a major problem facing them. Their forwards don’t press or drop back much in support of the midfield and certainly not the defense. This leads to their midfielders having to chase the game. Which leads to more pressure on the back line and keeper. They may not be good enough talent wise to survive that. Josef Martinez can still score and if he can go on a run it will help.

2022 – 6h

2023 Projection – 14th

Nashville SC:

Nashville has switched back to the East this season with the addition of St. Louis to the West. Unfortunately that’s likely to hurt them being in the stronger East. They do have one of the best attacking mids to ever play in the MLS in Hany Mukhtar who lead the MLS in scoring last season with 23 goals. He’s in his prime and will rack up a bunch again this season. They have Walker Zimmerman at CB and he’s one of the all time MLS best at that position and still in his prime. Much of the rest of the team though is on the wrong side of the age curve and with the move back to the East expect to see a bit of a drop this season.

2022 – 5th

2023 Projection – 8th

New England Revolution:

If you don’t have the strongest roster what is the one place it pays to be good? In this sport its clearly in the very back and keeper Djordje Petrovic is good. Very, very good. In fact he’s probably Best XI good. He’s a 23 year old 6ft 4in monster and he’s only going to get better. Ok so I am biased toward keepers but he’s the real deal. The problem they have is that their attack was so injured last year that they shuffled players in and out all season and never really got things right and its going to take some time this year for them to try and put together a cohesive group. Might be another tough season for manager Bruce Arena (one of my favorites).

2022 – 10th

2023 Projection – 11th

New York City FC:

While they lost several top tiered MLS players (keeper Sean Johnson for example) their pipeline keeps putting out talent across the board and they have one of the most talented young strikers in the league in Gabby Pereira. Keaton Parks is a machine at dmid. Expect manager Nick Cushing to get his team to figure things out. The question will be how long into the season will it take? If it goes longer than expected they could find themselves in a bit of a hole and have trouble making up much ground the rest of the way. Even if that happens they are still a playoff level club but their ceiling and floor are a fair gap apart.

2022 – 3rd

2023 Projection – 2nd

New York Red Bull:

Their attack was pretty meh last year so they brought in some reinforcements in Dante Vanzeir and Cory Burke. The lost CB Aaron Long but replaced him with Andres Reyes. But it looks like they are going to trot out a 4-2-2-2 formation. Not sure why manager Gerhard Struber can make that work when the previous 3 Red Bull managers tried it as well and none of them got it right. The fun part is that true to their name they will play energy drink soccer so its always entertaining. Not sure it will be good enough to get them to the playoffs.

2022 – 4th

2023 Projection – 9th

Orlando City SC:

Orlando has a number of things going for them. First they are a solid collection of parts who play better than the mere sum of those parts. They have a great offseason in both bringing in outside help, a couple of young development players, and several Super Draft picks. Now can manager Oscar Pareja put all those pieces together into a winning combination? First thing he’ll have to settle on is what formation they want to run. They started the preseason with a 3-4-2-1 which has morphed into more of a 4-3-3.

2022 – 7th

2023 Projection – 5th

Philadelphia Union:

They keep losing young studs to European clubs and seemingly don’t miss a beat and this year they have over 90% of their minutes from last years roster back. Manager, Jim Curtin (if he doesn’t end up as the new USMNT manager) will have them at or near the top again this season. The biggest worry for them is if they overly focus on CONCACAF Champions League and suffer during the MLS season because of it like Seattle did last year. Major difference thought is that Philly is a much younger side than Seattle.

2022 – 1st

2023 – 1st

Toronto FC:

First the good news. They are a solid balanced side They are experienced and have a very good coach in Bob Bradley. Yes, now comes the bad news. They are a very top end heavy roster with not a lot of depth. And that top end is not young. The front 3 are 31, 33, and 39. The starting midfield boasts players 28, 30, and 35. And its not much better around the rest of the staring lineup. So if that experience can stay on the field they can surely make the playoffs. But if they get hit hard with age and injuries the bottom could fall out.

2022 – 13th

2023 Projection – 6th

Western Conference

Austin FC:

The best thing going for this side is that they are playing a system that manager Josh Wolf has instilled that they fully understand and are able to execute across the board. They have a terrific keeper in Brad Stuver and can score with the best offenses in the league. They will be excellent again this season but they outperformed their advanced metrics last year. Don’t look for that to happen two years in a row still they are a top flight club.

2022 – 2nd

2023 Projection – 2nd

Colorado Rapids:

In a nutshell the overall rise of talent in MLS is rising quickly. Unfortunately for fans in the mile high city the Rapids talent level from neither signings or development is rising as fast. That’s a problem.

2022 – 10th

2023 Projection – 11th

FC Dallas:

Dallas had a well balanced team focused on possession and forcing opponents to turn the ball over when they did have possession. Manager Nico Estevez mantra was to not allow cheap goals and they were dang successful in that last season. And their attacking front 3 accounted for 34 goals (Jesus Ferreira 18, Paul Arriola 10, and Alan Velasco 6). If they produce that with any consistency again this year they will be well in the playoff hunt.

2022 – 3rd

2023 Projection – 5th

Houston Dynamo FC:

The outside backs are a mess and their wingers aren’t elite to cover that up. They’ll be fun to watch under Ben Olsen just don’t pay too much attention to the standings.

2022 – 13th

2023 – 13th

Los Angeles Galaxy:

Ask most soccer experts what’s the most important piece of real estate on a soccer field and they’ll tell you its the middle of the field. Control the middle of the field well and you will win your share of matches. Well the Galaxy probably have the best midfield trio in the league comprised of Gaston Brugman, Mark Delgado, and Riqui Puig. If they can find a bit more scoring depth they should be right there for a top 4 finish meaning hosting the first round match.

2022 – 4th

2023 Projection – 3rd

Los Angeles FC:

They may have a similar problem facing them as the Union. Need to not get too caught up with CCL that they run into tired legs during the later part of the MLS season. But at the end having Carlos Vela and Kwadwo Opoku paired in the attack will create all sorts of trouble for opposing defenses. Plus Opoku is moving to the #9 and his pressing should help keep the other side from quickly countering which LAFCs defense has been vulnerable too.

2022 – 1st

2023 Projection – 1st

Minnesota United:

Going to put the Loon’s prognosis very simply. Their best player, midfielder Emanual Reynoso stayed in Argentina and failed to report to training camp. While they do bring back their starting XI from their Decision Day win which carried them into the playoffs I think missing Reynoso is a tough pill to swallow.

2022 – 6th

2023 Projection – 9th

Portland Timbers:

When was the last time an MLS team went out and bought a foreign player for north of $10M? That wasn’t even a potential in MLS until just s few years ago yet that’s what the Timber did this winter bringing in Brazilian midfielder Evander. He’ll go the center mid and be flanked by Santi Moreno and Yimmi Charra. And that 3 man attacking midfield will have help on the bench from Sebastian Blanco. Then they have two really good defensive midfielders behind that threesome in Eryk Williamson and Diego Chara. The problem is that they don’t have much depth and several key players have a history of injuries, especially Williamson. If they stay healthy and keeper Aljaz Ivacic has another strong year they should improve on last years showing. Lots of ifs surrounding the Timber but they have talent, its going to be all about keeping it on the field.

2022 – 8th

2023 Prediction – 6th

Real Salt Lake:

Real have plenty of depth and speed across the field. And their ability to make big switches with the ball creates lots of problems for their opponents. But in general they don’t have real solid talent and most of the teams in the West appear to have improved over the offseason more than RSL. Might not be the best season to be a fan in Salt Lake this summer.

2022 – 7th

2023 Projection – 12th

San Jose Earthquakes:

If you get a chance to watch the Quakes play this year look for #44 in the attack. Cade Cowell is a member of the U20 USMNT and will play in the U20 WC. Hes’ good. But what makes him standout is his physical play. While only 5’9″ he’s a solid 174# and he’s fast. In most U20 matches he looks to be a man among boys and he showed that type of form last season for the Quakes. He’s looking to make his mark this season as there are a lot of transfer rumors surrounding him going to Europe with Newcastle United (EPL), Bayern Munich (Bundesliga) and both AC Milan and Juventus (Serie A) expressing interest. Couple Cowell with Jeremy Ebobisse and his 17 goals last season (his first MLS season as a #9) and they could make a move up towards the playoff line.

2022 – 14th

2023 Projection – 8th

Seattle Sounders:

The Sounders became the first MLS team to win the CCL under the current format. But it cost them during the MLS season. They were emotionally spent then were spanked hard with injuries, most notably to Raul Ruidiaz and Joao Paulo. They have looked fine during the preseason and Nicolas Lodeiro is still a stud. The only real concern for the Sounders is if age is catching up to them faster than they are brining in young players from their academy and via transfers?

2022 – 11th

2023 Projection – 4th

Sporting Kansas City:

While they should be better than last year, and probably a playoff team they have plenty of work to do before they are a legit threat in the West again. Certainly ownership believes in the approach of manager Peter Vermes as they just gave him a 5 year extension. But they should be better this year if for no other reason that keeper Tim Melia is better than what he showed last year. At least Sporting fans better hope he is!

2022 – 12th

2023 Prediction – 7th

St. Louis City SC:

Its always fun to watch an expansion team as they try and figure out just how they want to play and who best fits that mold. For SC things will start in the back with former Dortmund (Bundesliga) keeper Roman Bruki. Burki is terrific with his feet which will help settle his team and help them in transition. But he also wasn’t the best shot stopper of late at Dortmund. If he can get his form back it will give them a chance to be competitive in most matches and allow the team to grow which is all you can want in a first year club.

2023 Projection – 14th

Vancouver Whitecaps:

The Caps play a 5 man midfield that morphs into a 3-2-2-3 when they have possession. The problem is that it can be slow to transition from their base 4-2-3-1 into the attack and they just don’t have the quality or quickness to do so very effectively. Its a solid system that manager Vanni Sartini has in place but far too often it seems like the team has to think through each progression and that just won’t cut it at this level. IF they can pick up their speed of play without making mistakes in the back they have an upside into the playoffs. Not likely but the potential is there.

2022 – 9th

2023 Projection – 10th