Orioles: Last 7, Next 7 April 24th Report

Winners of their last 6 games, the Baltimore Orioles have improved to 14-7 on the year, and are currently in 2nd place in the AL East (4.5 games behind Tampa Bay) and 1.5 games ahead of Toronto as the lead Wild Card in the American League.

The O’s have won their last four series (3 of 4 vs. Oakland, 2 of 3 vs. the White Sox, 2 vs. the Nationals, and 3 vs. the Tigers).

Sure, that’s not exactly murderers row, but that’s generally irrelevant to me.
You play who you play.
Good teams beat up on the bad teams, and look to hold their own against the best.
The O’s held up their end this past week, and are ending April looking like one of the better teams in the AL.

Quick Hits: 

1) Dean Kremer is back on the mound in a few hours vs. Boston.  He’s coming off his first quality start of year, where he went 6.2 scoreless innings at DC. In that 4.18 game at DC, Kremer allowed 4 hits, 0 bb’s, and had 6 k’s. Facing trouble in the Nationals 3rd (runners on second and third with none out); Kremer reached back for a little extra and struck out the next 3 batters.  The Birds would win 1-0.

2) After Kremer’s quality start in DC, Kyle Bradish came off the IL to deliver his own highly encouraging outing the next night. Getting his first W of the year, Bradish went 6 innings, allowed 0 er, 5 hits, 1 bb, and 6 k’s.  Everything was on display for Bradish vs. the Nationals. DC’s lineup isn’t strong, but Bradish would have overwhelmed lots of teams that night. Bradish has now started 25 Major League games, and has just passed the 125 ML inning mark for his career. I fully expect that there will be rough outings here and there. But it’s also abundantly evident that Bradish has legitimate front-end starter capabilities.

3) My Winter and Spring projections had Tyler Wells helping the ’23 Orioles out of the bullpen.  Right now he’s giving a lift to the rotation. With each quality outing, he earns another opportunity.

4) I get the sense some O’s fans anticipated Grayson Rodriguez to be further along in his development. I’m 100% good with where he is right now. Breaking into the Majors is an adjustment. As we’ve said previously, I think the anticipation should be that he pitches like an average 3rd to 5th starter this year. Sometimes he’ll flash, sometimes he’ll look like the rookie he is. He’s made 4 starts now, and gone exactly 5 innings 3 times. His last two outings were 93 and 92 pitches respectfully.  Too many walks so far (10 in 19.1 innings), but he’s also got 25 k’s.  He wasn’t particularly strong yesterday, and he still found a way to go 5 scoreless. Just keep handing him the ball.

5) Last week I suggested I’d be fine with giving Ryan Mountcastle an extension into the first year or two of his would be free agent years. As we write this afternoon, Mountcastle is batting .213 on the year, with an OPS now under .700. My opinion is the same. His on-base % is always going to be average dependent. And when he’s batting this low, his normally low (career .310 on-base %) looks unfathomably ugly (.234 currently). The average will creep up some. The on-base % will probably end in the very low .300s.  He certainly isn’t making any real money right now. His value comes down to how much does he slug? When he’s seeing the ball well, he gets insanely hot, and hits everything hard.  When he’s going bad, he can’t hit anything. Always going to be peaks and valleys with him. Hopefully the downturns can be minimized.

6) Mountcastle isn’t the only O’s regular with an OPS in the .600’s.  Anthony Santander has trended up, but he’s still at just .634.  Adam Frazier is at .665.  Gunnar Henderson is at .639.   Ramon Urias is at .685.  When Adley Rutschman, Austin Hays, and Jorge Mateo get closer to their expected levels (as good as Rutschman is, an .891 OPS might not be sustainable as his games behind the plate mount); the current sub .700 club will be needed to do more.

7) Cedric Mullins is currently slashing .243 / .371 / .392.  His .763 OPS right in-line with his career .760 mark.  He has 9 steals on the year, as he’s taken advantage of the new MLB rules. One area way up for Mullins is his BB%.  That mark is currently 16.7%, vs. an 8.1% level for his career.

8) Henderson has bounced enough throws from 3rd, that the chirping about his fielding abilities and arm strength have increased.  I see a strong arm.  Well above average at both 3rd and SS.  I also see a 21 year old that doesn’t have that many professional innings at 3rd.  He’s learning timing. His throwing mechanics seem inconsistent; but that figures to improve with increased repetition.  Urias is a better defensive 3rd baseman today.  Mateo’s doing too much offensively and with the glove right now to not be starting everyday at SS, when he’s healthy enough to do so.  So, does Henderson get more time at DH? I’d continue to play him everyday at 3rd, and consider going to Urias a defensive replacement in close and late situations. I think Henderson is ultimately going to be above-average defensively at 3rd.  Does he get there this year? I’m not sure about that.

9) Yennier Cano has impressed in his 5 outings, and 6 innings for the O’s. His stuff really plays.

10) The O’s signed Kyle Gibson to replace Jordan Lyles.  It’s been a strong beginning to Gibson’s O’s tenure, as the 35 year old is 4-0, with a 3.60 era.  In 3 of his 5 outings, Gibson has allowed 2 er or less.

11) Is Felix Bautista the best reliever in the game?  His K% is in the 99th percentile. His Chase Rate is in the 97% percentile. 10.2 innings on the year, 19 k’s, 3 walks. RHH have a .588 OPS against (20 ab’s). LHH have a .451 OPS against 21 ab’s.

12) As we said at the top, the O’s are currently the lead Wild Card in the AL.  Fellow AL East teams Toronto and New York would also be Wild Cards if the season ended today.

13) The O’s currently rank last in baseball in Outs Above Average.  As the games increase, will the O’s defensive metrics’ improve?  I think so.  Rutshman, Mateo, and Mullins up the middle is a good trio to start with.  Mountcastle isn’t a liability at 1st.  Henderson will either improve at 3rd, or Urias will get more time there. Austin Hays has a -4 OAA currently.  As we mentioned last week, that was negative last year as well (his URZ / 150, and DRS were positive). We will see if that number improves closer to average during the year, or it remains an issue. If it remains an issue, Ryan McKenna might get some use as a defensive replacement in LF.  Santander in right is livable.  You’d like to improve there if you could. You would like for Santander to get more time at DH, but they also want time at DH for Rutschman, and maybe Henderson for the reasons outlined above. And of course, the O’s best RF is currently at AAA (Kyle Stowers).  2nd base is kind of interesting. Adam Frazier signed his $8M deal, and he’s been the regular 2nd baseman so far. He’s 1 for his last 13, 11 for 57 in April.  He’s got a .665 OPS currently. With a hot week, he’d figure to be at about his career average (.727). With another cold week, he’d be in the low 600s.  If he’s +/- where he is now at the end of May, will the O’s be looking to bring up Jordan Westburg, or Joey Ortiz? Ortiz is supposed to be superior with the glove at SS, but obviously he’s not moving Mateo off of SS in the next Month.  Could he break in at 2nd? Would he be an improvement over Frazier? Frazier has historically been considered pretty solid at 2nd (+6 OAA last year, -1 so far this year). Westburg seems to be regarded as a guy that won’t be a liability defensively at 2nd, but he doesn’t figure to be any better than Frazier with the glove.

The Next 7 Games

The Orioles began this ’23 season in Boston.
Tonight the Red Sox come to Camden Yards for the first time this year.

4/24 – 4/26  Boston (3 games)
4/27 – 4/30 @Detroit (4 games)

The Red Sox are 12-11 overall, which would have them 0.5 a game out of 1st in the AL Central, but is currently good for last in the AL East.
Boston is 7-3 in their last 10 overall, and 5-5 on the road.

The Orioles of course just saw the Tigers here in Baltimore, and now will travel to Detroit for a 4 game series.  The Tigers are 7-13 overall, 4-4 at home.

With the O’s dropping 2 of 3 in Boston (one of the losses literally coming on McKenna’s drop); you’d like to see the O’s get 2 of 3 at home, and add a 5th consecutive series win.
Four game series are usually difficult to win, especially on the road.  3 of 4 would be terrific.  Splitting that 4 game series is the minimum expected.