Coming into the 2023 MLB season, there was constant talk across Orioles Twitter spaces and discussion boards about the inactivity of the front office during the offseason. General Manager Mike Elias had promised a “liftoff”, leading many fans to speculate that some big name signings were on the way. When the free agent class did not live up to those expectations, anger and frustration with those in charge of the team ran rampant throughout the fanbase. However, the early returns from the team’s new additions, as well as the shortcomings of many of the free agents who signed elsewhere, suggest that the front office pulled all the right strings when building this year’s roster.
The headliner of Elias’s free agent class was 35-year-old pitcher Kyle Gibson, who was brought in to fill the veteran role in which Jordan Lyles served last year. While the signing was met with little enthusiasm, the right-hander has already exceeded expectations and has become the leader of a surging pitching rotation.
Through his first five starts, Gibson has posted a 4-0 record with a 3.60 ERA and an impressive 1.17 WHIP, the lowest mark of his career. While he may not blow hitters away with a high-velocity fastball, his seven pitch arsenal, headlined by a wipeout sweeper that has held opponents to a .125 batting average, has enabled him to keep hitters off balance and limit hard contact. Furthermore, he has provided some much needed length to keep the bullpen fresh, tossing at least five innings in each of his outings.
While Gibson is the highest paid player on the roster and therefore should be expected to produce at a high level, the Orioles could have spent significantly more money for worse results if they had pursued some of the other big name pitchers on the free agent market.
Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling are both off to disastrous starts, pitching to 6.60 and 6.89 ERAs respectively after they each signed two-year, $25 million contracts with the Giants. Michael Wacha has gotten rocked in each of his last two outings with the Padres, suggesting that his success last season was a fluke, and Nathan Eovaldi has looked very hittable, allowing a .306 opposing batting average through his first 27.2 innings with the Rangers.
Even some of the “safer” and more expensive pitchers like Chris Bassitt and Jameson Taillon have looked worse than Gibson. Bassitt, who signed a three-year, $63 million contract with the Blue Jays, has struggled to a 4.82 ERA with a measly 1.75 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB), while Taillon, who is being paid $17 annually by the Cubs, failed to make it into the sixth inning in any of his first three starts before going on the IL with a groin strain.
Meanwhile, the biggest offensive addition, Adam Frazier, has become an integral role player during his first few weeks in Baltimore. The second baseman has walked (8) almost as many times as he has struckout (9) while ranking fifth on the team in runs (12) and third in stolen bases (3). Furthermore, he has been responsible for two walk-offs over the last week, bringing home Ryan Mountcastle on a ground ball to end the game on Friday and scoring the game-winning run on a wild pitch on Sunday.
His contributions don’t jump off the page and he certainly isn’t going to bring the same value guys like Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson have brought to their new clubs since arriving in the offseason. However, he has served admirably in his role and could prove to be a valuable mentor to Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz, or Connor Norby should they be called up this summer.
Even some of the lesser-known players brought in by the front office have had significant impacts. Danny Coulombe has been one of the bullpen’s most reliable relievers since coming over from the Twins, allowing just seven baserunners and one earned run over his first nine innings. His average exit velocity, expected batting average, and expected slugging percentage are all in the 99th percentile for MLB pitchers. In addition, Ryan O’Hearn has come up with some important hits in limited action, recording five RBIs despite having just ten plate appearances.
There were still a couple of missteps made by the front office, the most notable of which was trading infielder Darell Hernaiz for Cole Irvin. Irvin struggled badly in his first few starts before being sent down to Norfolk, while Hernaiz is batting almost .300 through 12 games with the Athletics’ AA affiliate.
Losing a highly-regarded prospect like Hernaiz is never easy, but the loss feels less significant given the amount of middle-infield talent present within the farm system. Ortiz, Westburg, and Norby, in addition to outfielders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad, have enjoyed strong starts to the year, raising their statuses as top prospects. If many Baltimore natives had it their way, some combination of these players would have been dealt for major league talent months ago but by holding onto them, Elias has elevated their value even further.
In conclusion, while it would have been nice to see the front office go out and bring in a top-echelon player, one big signing was never going to make or break this season. The Orioles are still an incredibly young and inexperienced team and by spending heavily or trading top prospects this offseason, the front office would have risked derailing years of rebuilding.
Furthermore, the fact that Elias and his crew have been able to put together such a strong roster without doing so bodes well for the future. As Peter Brand says in Moneyball, “your goal shouldn’t be to buy players, your goal should be to buy wins”. Gibson, Frazier, Coulombe, and O’Hearn have already played large roles in a number of wins and with the breadth of talent waiting in the upper levels of the minor leagues, there are plenty more wins on the way. The spending and trading will come when the front office deems it necessary but until then I am going to trust Elias and the plan he has had in place since his arrival in Baltimore almost five years ago.
Luke Rollfinke is a student at Vanderbilt where he is pursuing a career in sports journalism. A recent graduate from the Friends School of Baltimore, Luke has spent his entire childhood in Charm City and is a devoted Orioles fan. In the past, he has written for SB Nation and has worked closely with Ravens columnist John Eisenberg. From nights at Camden Yards to Sunday afternoons watching NFL Redzone, Luke eats, sleeps, and breathes sports. He is excited to bring his perspective to BSL.