As you may have heard, the Baltimore Orioles opted for a rather quiet offseason when it came to spending. They spent ten million dollars on Kyle Gibson, eight million dollars on Adam Frazier and another five million dollars on Mychal Givens. While Givens is still on the verge of making his return to the Orioles, we’ve already seen pretty consistent playing time from Gibson and Frazier. As such, this means we now have over a month of stats to analyze.
Here’s a look at Gibson and Frazier in the context of similarly priced free agents and who the duo have replaced from the 2022 Orioles.
Kyle Gibson
According to the FanGraphs free agency tracker, Kyle Gibson was one of ten free agent starting pitchers signed to a contract worth more than five million dollars but less than 15 million dollars this offseason.
Among those ten free agents, Gibson ranks third in ERA and second for both FIP and HR/9. On the other hand, his K/9 sits in seventh place and his opposing batting average ranks sixth among the ten starters.
Even with concerns over the K/9 and opposing average, Gibson will continue to be a good value if his ERA remains lower than others in his price range.
It’s also worth noting that while Gibson has been a decent value relative to other low-priced free agents, his numbers aren’t great in a broader context. Among 75 qualified starters, he ranks 53rd in ERA and 72nd for K/9. While some of Gibson’s stats are underwhelming relative to the rest of the majors, he has still delivered for eating innings. Gibson has thrown 47.0 innings this year, a figure that ranks 11th in the majors. He leads the Orioles with 5.9 innings per start and has four of the team’s eight quality starts. Now, let’s look at Gibson compared to Jordan Lyles. Lyles was 2022’s innings eater and Gibson was brought in with the hopes of improving on what Lyles provided.
Based on 2023 production, Gibson is currently the clear winner here. Lyles has a 6.20 ERA, a noticeably higher figure than Gibson’s 4.40 ERA. Lyles has also been much more prone to allowing homers, with an astronomical 2.37 HR/9 and the third-lowest groundball rate among qualified pitchers.
However, comparing 2023 Gibson to 2022 Lyles feels much more even. Gibson’s 4.40 ERA is almost identical to the 4.42 ERA Lyles provided last year and 2022 Lyles had a better K/9 than 2023 Gibson.
Picking Gibson over Lyles has proven wise this year, but it feels hard to argue that Gibson has been a major upgrade from the 2022 Lyles.
Adam Frazier
While there were plenty of modestly priced options for starting pitching this offseason, that wasn’t really the case for options at third base, shortstop and second base.
According to the FanGraphs free agency tracker, Adam Frazier was just one of three players who can play 3B, SS or 2B to get a contract worth more than five million dollars but less than 15 million dollars. The other two were Aledmys Diaz and Jace Peterson.
Even if the Orioles wanted to spend more on their infield without breaking the bank, there just weren’t many options. Justin Turner signed for 21.7 million dollars, while Brandon Drury and Jean Segura each got 17 million dollars.
Among the six reasonably priced free agent options to play 3B/SS/2B, Frazier has the third-best OPS and the highest walk rate.
While Frazier’s .678 OPS is roughly league-average, he might as well be Barry Bonds compared to Aledmys Diaz and Jean Segura. Segura’s sudden .446 OPS is especially surprising for someone who had an OPS above .720 every year between 2017 and 2022.
As for the rest of the league, Frazier ranks 21st in OPS among 26 second basemen qualified for the batting title. While Frazier’s OPS isn’t spectacular, he’s lived up to the billing when it comes to putting the ball in play. He ranks tenth among 172 qualified hitters across all positions when it comes to strikeout rate.
While Frazier’s OPS isn’t great, he’s still been a clear upgrade at second from 2022 Rougned Odor.
Frazier has been better than 2022 Odor for average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He’s also been walking more and striking out less than Odor did in 2022. Furthermore, Frazier has already matched Odor’s stolen bases total barely two months into the season with six.
Unlike Lyles, Odor has failed to earn regular playing time with a new club in 2023. He’s currently on the San Diego Padres, but has appeared in just 15 of their 36 games this year with a .407 OPS.
While 2022 Lyles vs 2023 Gibson feels close, there’s an easy winner when it comes to Odor vs Frazier.
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).