The mantra we’ve heard time and time again over the last few years from many “smart” NFL analytical types is that running backs don’t matter and that they are easily replaceable. Along with something to the effect of, “you shouldn’t draft a running back in the first round”. Granted, there is a germ of truth to this general sentiment; particularly when it comes to running backs that were fortunate enough to play in Gary Kubiak’s system (Mike Anderson, Steve Slayton and Justin Forsett to name a few). Either way, the days of Eddie George, Terrell Davis, LaDainian Tomlinson and other bell cow running backs have been relegated to the dustbin on NFL history. The nature of running back usage has changed.
The Baltimore Ravens find themselves in a bit of a conundrum with quasi disgruntled running back JK Dobbins. To get a clearer focus on present, I think it’s worthwhile to take a look at Baltimore’s past history with running backs and contract extensions.
The first case is that of Jamal Lewis. After selecting Lewis with the #5 pick of the 2000 draft, the 250 pound back rushed for 1,364 yards as a rookie, while averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Lewis’ rookie season was followed up by a bad break that Ravens’ fans know all too well. In training camp of 2001, undrafted rookie Kelly Gregg fell awkwardly on Lewis’s leg, tearing his ACL and putting him on the shelf for that season. In 2002, Lewis bounced back with 1,327 on 4.3 yards per carry, despite appearing a step slow all year. Then came the historic season of 2003 where Lewis ran for 2,066 yards on 5.3 yards per carry. Lewis was solid, if unspectacular the next 2 seasons that saw his combined yards per carry dip just below 4. In March of 2006, the Ravens signed Jamal Lewis to a 3 year, $26 million extension. Unfortunately, Lewis’ production slipped to 3.6 yards per carry and he was released by the Ravens in February 2007. Lewis went on the play for the Cleveland Browns for 3 years before retiring after the 2009 season.
Approximately a month after the release of Jamal Lewis, Baltimore swung a trade with the Buffalo Bills for Willis McGahee and subsequently signed him to a 7 year, $40 million contract. In McGahee’s first year with Baltimore, he rushed for 1,207 yards while averaging 4.1 yards per carry. McGahee spent 3 more years in Baltimore but as part of a running back rotation in Cam Cameron’s offense. After the 2010 season, McGahee was released by Baltimore, then spent 2 productive years with the Denver Broncos and 1 unspectacular season with the Cleveland Browns before calling it quits.
The third running back to review is Ray Rice. Rice was taken by Baltimore in the 2nd round of the 2008 draft. After being a part of the 3 headed running back monster his rookie year, Rice emerged as a dual threat back and was considered to be amongst the NFL’s best. Ray Rice was given the franchise tag for a brief time in 2012 before agreeing to a 5 year, $35 million contract extension in July 2012. Rice was integral of part of the Ravens 2012, championship season but that peak was quickly followed by a valley. He reported to training camp of 2013, noticeably heavier and appeared ill prepared for the season. In what seemed like the blink of an eye, Rice went from one of the most prolific backs in the NFL to one who looked like a shell of himself. For the purposes of this discussion, we won’t rehash Rice’s off the field problems that ensued but after his lackluster 2013 season, he never played in the NFL again.
Eric DeCosta can look to the past contract extensions for Ravens running backs, as well as other recent running back extensions around the league for reference and as a cautionary tale.
I will say that I don’t subscribe to the notion that running backs are simply replaceable. The Baltimore Ravens can attest to this first hand after witnessing the spate of injuries to their running backs during the 2021 pre-season and the largely fruitless attempt to replace their production that season. The Ravens tried likes of Ty’Son Williams, Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman and even a cameo from Le’Veon Bell but the rushing attack did not have the same efficacy as it did in 2019 and 2020. So once again, while I think it’s disingenuous to label running backs as fungible assets, I believe running backs should be labelled as valuable but short term assets.
Bringing it back to the present and the JK Dobbins situation, what are the Ravens to do?
On one hand, Dobbins has averaged just under 6 yards per carry for his career and has only scratched the service on his potential as a pass catcher. Dobbins has shown that he can be a home run hitter and has a nose for the end zone. On the other hand, this same running back has missed a year and a half of his 3 year career as the result of a devastating knee injury. All the while, he has been quite vocal about his usage (or lack thereof) and is now clearly unhappy with his contract situation. I’m certain that Dobbins did not endear himself to Coach Harbaugh and the organization with his supposed “hold in” at the recent OTAs.
Historically, the Ravens organization has made every effort to retain players that they value. Of course, the constraints of the salary cap only allow organizations to retain so many players and tough choices have to be made.
Baltimore just made a gigantic commitment to quarterback Lamar Jackson, overhauled their wide receiver room and made a change at offensive coordinator. All of this was done, seemingly, in an effort to move away from the run heavy offense of Greg Roman, to a more balanced offense, which features Lamar Jackson’s arm, more than his legs. With that said, it’s not as if the Ravens are going to suddenly become an Arena League offense, throwing the ball 50+ times per game. With the defense the Ravens have built, having an effective running game to compliment said defense is imperative. A running game built around a back the caliber of JK Dobbins certainly wouldn’t be a bad thing.
The questions for the Ravens are as follows: What kind of money does Dobbins want? What could the Ravens realistically afford? Do the Ravens believe that Dobbins has put his health issues to bed and how productive could he be going forward?
In a perfect world, I would like to see JK Dobbins with the Ravens on a short term extension in the neighborhood of 3 years. Dobbins will be 25 this December and the one benefit of missing roughly a year and a half of games is that he didn’t put that mileage on his body. So perhaps the Ravens could get their money’s worth over the course of a 3 year deal with Dobbins.
Let’s just say I’m glad I’m not Eric DeCosta and the Ravens front office, as they make every effort to solve the curious case of JK Dobbins.
Jamie has been a Baltimore sports fan since he can remember. He grew up in Gwynn Oak and currently resides in Hampstead with his wife and 2 kids. He graduated from UMBC with a Bachelor of Arts in History. He’s currently employed at Verizon Communications in Hunt Valley.