OTAs are in full swing, and training camp is less than three weeks away. Excitement is about to reach a fever pitch—and not just for the actual NFL season. Fantasy football drafts are quickly approaching for redraft leagues. Best ball drafts are already underway. And dynasty…well, dynasty never sleeps. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the Ravens offense through a fantasy football lens.
Redraft Leagues
What better place to start than with the most important Ravens player for both fantasy and real life? Yup, Lamar Jackson. Right now, Jackson is ranked 51st overall in half-PPR leagues according to FantasyPros. He is the QB4 overall behind Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts. Since his QB1 finish in 2019, Jackson has finished 9th, 14th, and 13th, so it seems the market has already priced in the team’s exciting offseason moves (new contract, new coordinator, new toys at WR). The expert consensus rankings (ECR) on FantasyPros also think that Baltimore’s signal caller may be slightly overhyped—his current average draft position (38th) is 13 spots ahead of his ECR.
Now, I believe Jackson has a legitimate shot at another QB1 overall season in 2023 and an even better chance to return on his QB4 draft position. But hoping that a player will live up to their offseason hype is rarely a winning strategy in fantasy, and there are a number of other exciting quarterbacks with enormous upside–especially Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence, but also players like Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa, and Daniel Jones–who are being drafted much later than Jackson. Here are those players’ ADPs and ECRs for comparison:
| ADP | ECR | |
| Lamar Jackson | 38 | 51 |
| Justin Fields | 42 | 63 |
| Justin Herbert | 43 | 69 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 54 | 74 |
| Deshaun Watson | 71 | 90 |
| Daniel Jones | 85 | 102 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 91 | 100 |
In summary, I love Jackson’s potential for a top-5 QB finish in 2023…but it seems that everyone else does, too. For redraft, I would look elsewhere at quarterback. Instead, how about a deep sleeper pick? Mine is Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers. According to the FF Newsletter (theffnewsletter@substack.com), Purdy led all fantasy QBs in points per dropback last season and ranked 8th in fantasy points per start. He also has an embarrassment of riches around him at WR, TE, and RB. With a full offseason to recover from his elbow injury (and continue to master Kyle Shanahan’s offense), I think Purdy will be an enormous value this season. His ADP is currently 182 overall (QB28), so you’re not risking much by taking him late in your draft.
Dynasty Leagues
Interestingly, dynasty is a bit of a different story. In standard (non-super flex) leagues, Jackson is ranked 57th overall and is the QB7 behind Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence. Now, dynasty players should have a different perspective when building their rosters for the long-term, and injury/longevity concerns are undoubtedly weighing on Jackson’s ranking.
But at a mere 26 years old and with easily the best combination of offensive skill players and offensive coordinator that he’s had in his career, Jackson is a steal in start-up drafts right now. Despite his injuries, Jackson has finished as a top-10 QB in fantasy points per game four years in a row (including a 6th overall finish in 2022, when he recorded his lowest completion percentage, lowest total passing yards, lowest average yards/attempt, and fewest total rushing yards since his rookie season). Jackson is primed for a massive bounce back year, and if you are just getting started in a dynasty league, he is a player that can win you the inaugural season (and hopefully a few more after that), especially given his current ADP.
But what if your league is already established? Is it worth trading for Jackson right now? That depends. If the Jackson owner is a Ravens fan…good luck. They probably know just how exciting the 2023 Ravens offense looks and will require a massive haul to part with the captain of their fantasy squad and their home team. Even if the owner isn’t a Baltimore fan, it may be tough to get good value in a trade for Jackson. Keeptradecut.com, a crowd-sourced trade calculator, shows Lamar being worth more than Trevor Lawrence, a player he is ranked behind on FantasyPros, and virtually equivalent to Justin Herbert, another player ahead of him in the FantasyPros rankings. That means the dynasty community is higher on Jackson than the “consensus rankings,” and it means you’ll have to pay up to acquire him.
Born and raised in Baltimore, Chris has been a local sports fan his whole life. His first love was the Orioles, thanks in large part to his grandfather–but ever since the Ravens arrived, football has been his passion. By day, Chris works as a Medical Writer supporting the National Institutes of Health. He now lives in Sykesville with his wife and two daughters.