Three Second Half Questions For The Baltimore Orioles

Friday will mark the beginning of a crucial second half for the Baltimore Orioles as they look to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Here’s a look at three key questions as the Orioles embark on their final 73 games of the regular season. 

Will any other top prospects debut this year? 

This season has seen the major league debuts of four major prospects already between Grayson Rodriguez, Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser. As such, it’s natural to wonder if more promotions will continue after the All-Star break. 

Based on both AAA production and prospect pedigree, the leading candidate would seem to be Heston Kjerstad. The #2 pick from the 2020 draft began his Norfolk tenure on June 6 and has gotten off to an excellent start with a 1.017 OPS in 25 games.  

Elsewhere in AAA, top-100 prospect Connor Norby has spent all of 2023 in Norfolk with a somewhat underwhelming .795 OPS in 81 games.  

Meanwhile, Coby Mayo has emerged as another candidate for a future promotion after getting moved up to AAA during the All-Star break. Mayo earned his promotion after putting together a 1.026 OPS in 78 games with AA Bowie that led the Eastern League. 

While AAA production certainly matters for promotions, so does finding room on the MLB roster.  

Heston Kjerstad could put together a 1.400 OPS in the second half and it might not be enough to earn a promotion this year as long as the MLB roster continues to get useful production from corner outfield, first base and designated hitter. Anthony Santander’s .840 OPS certainly shouldn’t see him lose playing time to a rookie and this year’s other corner outfielder is All-Star Game starter Austin Hays. 

Of course, the elephant in the room is that injuries can always create opportunities. No one wants to see Hays or Santander get injured, but that currently looks like the easiest path for someone like Kjerstad to debut this season. 

The Orioles hardly seem done promoting prospects to the majors, but a clean bill of health on the major league roster seems like it’ll create a tricky situation for any notable debuts in the second half. 

How and when does Grayson Rodriguez return to the majors? 

Let’s stick with the top prospects by taking a closer look at the aforementioned Rodriguez. 

After being sent down in May, he has recovered quite nicely in AAA. His ERA since being sent down is 1.69 and his K/9 is 13.02 across seven starts. In fact, his numbers look quite similar to his final seven starts before getting injured last season. 

The 2022 version of Rodriguez was better at limiting walks and homers, but it’s still reasonable say that Rodriguez has returned to the form he was in last year. 

However, there doesn’t seem like an obvious spot in the rotation for him. Cole Irvin has put together a very respectable 2.92 ERA in his last six games and Dean Kremer seems like his rotation spot should be safe even with a 5.08 ERA since June.  

 Meanwhile, a free agent veteran like Kyle Gibson is probably untouchable and Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish have been this year’s two best starters where their rotation spots are incredibly secure.   

 As such, this means that the bullpen might be how Rodriguez returns to Baltimore. While Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano have been excellent, everyone below them hasn’t exactly been dominant. Rodriguez, who had a 11.9 K/9 as a starter in the majors, might have the exact kind of stuff that’d work incredibly well out of the bullpen down the stretch.  

However, it’d also require Rodriguez to work through one of his main issues from his first stint in the majors: the first inning. Rodriguez had a 7.20 ERA and allowed a 1.028 OPS in the first inning across his ten starts, an alarming combination for someone who’d usually only pitch one inning as a reliever. Perhaps the sixth inning out of the bullpen could go differently than the first inning as a starter, but it’s still worth noting for Rodriguez’s pros and cons as a reliever. 

Rodriguez’s roster spot could also on depend on other question marks for the roster’s pitching staff in the second half like Dillon Tate, Mychal Givens, John Means and DL Hall. 

It seems unlikely Rodriguez will spend the rest of the year in AAA, but there are plenty of factors beyond his AAA numbers that could determine how and when he returns to the roster. We’ll just have to wait to see when he returns and in what role.  

Can Aaron Hicks and Ryan O’Hearn keep this up? 

Across 2021 and 2022, Aaron Hicks had a .639 OPS in 579 plate appearances, while Ryan O’Hearn’s OPS was .627 across 399 PAs. There was little reason going into 2023 to believe either of these players would to contribute to a winning team this season, but here we are. 

Hicks has a .868 OPS since joining the Orioles, while O’Hearn has a nearly identical OPS of .867. With the caveat that they have smaller samples than regulars like Hays, the duo lead the Orioles in OPS among players with at least 100 PAs. 

The smaller samples also mean there’s naturally some skepticism that this will remain sustainable for the entire second half. Both of these players were dreadful across the last two years and it’s reasonable to wonder if a change of scenery is enough to improve someone’s OPS by over 200 points. 

As such, this means it’s worth examining the underlying numbers to see what factors have gone into these improvements.  

Hicks has a lower average exit velocity than he did in New York, but improvements in his walk rate and strikeout rate in Baltimore mean more of his PAs are ending in something besides a disappointed walk to the dugout. The former Yankee has also cut down on his grounders, seeing his ground ball percentage drop from 53.1 percent as a Yankee to 36.4 percent in Baltimore. 

Meanwhile, O’Hearn is enjoying career highs for both hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity.  

Even if Hicks and O’Hearn do regress in the second half, it might not be that impactful to this team’s chances of winning. The promotion of Cowser has made Hicks the team’s fifth outfielder and O’Hearn could become less important if a healthy Ryan Mountcastle has a productive second half. 

Hicks and O’Hearn have been two of this year’s biggest surprises and the second half will go a long way towards seeing if they’ve truly improved or just enjoyed a few hot months.