WWC 2023: Can the US Three-peat?

The pic above was the scene four years ago in Lyon, France when the USWNT became the first women’s team to win four Word Cups. And they did so in a terrific showing, beating the Netherlands in the final 2-0 with goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher earning her fourth clean sheet of the tournament. While Megan Rapinoe won the Golden Ball (tournament MVP) and Golden Boot (top scorer). It also gave the US their second straight WC title having beaten Japan in the 2015 final.

There are so many storylines surrounding this team and first and foremost is the big question. Can they win a third WC in a row? Currently ranked #1 in the world the odds makers have them as the favorites as well they should. But the women’s game has grown tremendously over the last handful of years and there are a number of very good teams that will push for the title.

Lets take a took at the USWNT makeup and dissect their strengths and weaknesses.

1. They have a contingent of proven international talent including 9 players with over 75 national team caps: Alex Morgan (207), Megan Rapinoe (199), Kelley O’Hara (157), Crystal Dunn (132), Lindsey Horan (129), Julie Ertz (118), Alyssa Naeher (91), Rose Lavelle (88), and Emily Sonnett (75). That is a load of experience. But with that also comes the question of age and do they still have the legs for the grind of a month long tournament? Rapinoe is 38 and Morgan is 34. Both whom play up top although Rapinoe is expected to have more of a sub role on this squad. Julie Ertz is 31 and has only recently returned from having her first child. She is likely to play the deep laying midfield role which is key to the US transition from defending into attack. She’s been back since April and should be fit. Will she be in form?
2. Then there is the flip side. The side also features a bunch of young stars none more important than 22 year old attacker Sophia Smith. She will be called on to come up big in light of Mallory Swanson being out with injury. The US will miss Swanson big time. But Smith is perhaps every bit as the goal scorer of Swanson and this is her time to shine. The roster also has a handful of players with fewer than 20 caps with the national team: Aubrey Kingsbury (1), Savannah Demelo (1), Alyssa Thompson (4), Casey Murphy (14), Naomi Gurma (16), and Trinity Rodman (18).
3. From a lineup perspective, this melding of experience and youth is critical. A winning team must have a backbone of quality experienced players to set the tone when a match gets difficult. In the case of the USWNT expect to see these players in most of the matches taking up the middle of the field. Staring with the goalkeeper Alyssa Neaher should see most of the starts.  The central defense will be anchored by Alana Cook and Naomi Gurma. If there is an area of concern this is it. The US will be missing their best center back in Becky Sauerbrunn, one of the best in the world. Cook and Gurma are talented players for sure but have not been exposed to this level of play much. Expect to see Julie Ertz playing deep in the middle to support the back line especially early in the tournament. Captain Lindsey Horan will be the central defender responsible to distribute the ball to the attackers and to shut down any opponents counter attacks. Watch Horan. If she’s on here game she is one of the best in the world.. Up top this is going to be the Smith show. Morgan will draw lots of attention and she will get her chances but Smith is so fast and dangerous.
4. Now I would be remiss without a special call out to Sofia Huerta. Never thought I would see the day that a player from Idaho would make a WC squad but Huerta, a native of Boise, did it. You go girl do us proud!!

With that backdrop lets look at the groups and how they stack up.

Group A

New Zealand – The co-host Kiwi’s have participated in 5 previous WCs and have yet to advance to the knockout rounds. For a country that doesn’t even have a domestic league they have produced some pretty solid talent. And getting to play at home certainly boosts their chances to advance. They do hold a WC record too albeit not a good one. They hold the record for most WC matches played without a win. Failing to do so in their 15 previous tries. Look for that to end July 24thin Wellington when they host the Philippines. They must win that match to have any shot to advance. They are going to need someone not named Hannah Wilkinson to score some goals. Wilkinson is the only New Zealand player to ever score more than 1 goal in a WC and they will need more than that to advance out of this group.

Norway – One of 7 teams that have qualified for every WWC but have failed to get past the quarter-finals since 2011. The key match for them will be the first one when they play New Zealand. On paper the Norwegians are a stronger and more talented side. But they will be playing on the Kiwi’s home turf. If they can win this match they should advance. Draw and they still have a solid shot. But if they are upset then they will likely have to beat the Swiss to move on. How far Norway goes lies at the feet of Caroline Graham Hansen. In the last go round she had 11 shots with 5 on frame. In a single match!

Philippines –  Qualifying mostly due to the expansion of 32 teams, this marks their first appearance at the WWC. But don’t take this team too lightly as they did qualify second out of Asia. However, none of their players play in Europe and only a couple play in the Australian league. They will show some flair in their attacks but in the end they just don’t have the talent to advance.

Switzerland –  While this is only the 2nd WWC for the Swiss their expectations are high and not advancing to the knout rounds will be seen as a huge disappointment. They have the talent and got a very favorable group draw. Inka Grings took over as the head coach after last year’s European Championship and promptly shifted the focus from defense to a more attacking side. Watch for goals to come from Ana-Maria Crnogorcevic and Coumba Sow. They each scored 9 times in the qualification rounds.

Prediction – Norway and Switzerland advance.

Group B  –

My choice for the Group of Death. Three solid teams plus a newcomer that has some speed in the attack which means lots can happen.

Australia – Playing at home is a huge boost for the Matildas. A solid team playing at home is clearly favored to advance. In fact they could make a fairly deep run in the tournament. For this team look no further than superstar Sam Kerr. She has the most goals in the English Women’s Super League, arguably the best women’s league in the world. Scoring 54 goals in 67 matches is crazy good. Currently ranked #10 by FIFA they have the quality and depth to make a run especially playing at home.

Canada – Currently ranked #7 by FIFA they have a lot going for them namely they are the reigning Olympic gold medalists and are looking to take the top trophy. If you follow the women’s game at all then you know the name Christine Sinclair. She has 190 international goals to her credit and has scored a goal in 5 WWC and is looking for her 6th. she and Marta (Brazil) are the only two players to have scored in 5 WWCs. The oddsmakers actually have them behind Australia to win it all. Mostly due to the location.

Nigeria –  The Nigerian side is facing some really big issues heading to Australia. They have been in an ongoing dispute with the Nigerian Football Federation over such trivial things as are they going to get paid. Its hard to tell how that will impact their play once the matches actually start but lets just say its certainly a distraction at best. The other problem facing them is the draw. A group with 2 of the top 10 in FIFA is a tough deal. They face a tough road and doubt they have the talent to advance. Look for this to be the 7th time in their 9 appearances where they failed to move past the Group Stage.

Republic of Ireland –  Ranked #22 and entering their first ever WWC, and the Irish are full of excitement. They only conceded 4 goals in their 9 qualifying matches and never more than 1 goal in any match. And on the other end of the field they found the back of their opponents net 27 times. They have some quality all over the field led by Captain Katie McCabe who lead Arsenal winning the ball 26 times in the final third. Unfortunately they also have their distractions. Two players (Sinead Farrelly and Maria Shim) accused their then coach of the Portland Thorn of sexual abuse. Then several weeks ago a report was published where several former players of the Irish head coach, Vera Pauw, said she created a “culture of fear.”  Not the look you want headed to the WWC.

Prediction – Unfortunately for Nigeria and the Republic of Ireland the draw did them no favors. They’d have had better chances in other groups. In this one its going to be hard for them to move past the hosts and Canada.

Group C

Costa Rica –  The Lady Ticos have a legit shot to advance. Clearly they are behind Spain and Japan but they could pull off the upset over one of these teams. The key to their play will lie in the midfield. If they can control the ball and not get into boat races they have a shot. And that midfield control will lie at the feet of Raquel Rodriguez and Melissa Herrera. Rodriquez has 55 goals in her international career (100 caps) but as a country they have only scored 3 WWC goals. Even with a solid defense they will need to score more than that to advance out of this tough group.

Japan –  Akin to their male countrymen, they play a very possession oriented style. Keeping games to low scoring affairs always means that you are always just one funny bounce or questionable call away from a surprising result. While Japan is a talented side they are not yet back to the level of the powerhouse teams from 2011 and 2015. But they have retooled from their disappointing 2019 tournament with a bunch of young and talented players. The question for them is going to be are they ready to get back to their level of the 2010 era or are they still one more cycle away, needing just a bit more experience?  The key for Japan? Women’s Super League Best XI midfielder Yui Hasegawa. In her deeper laying role for Manchester City she was 6th in the leagues in recoveries and 2nd in the league in for players with over 1,000 passes with a completion rate over 88%. Bottom line? When Hasagawa has the ball they are very dangerous.

Spain –  At #7 in the world this team has almost as many questions as it does answers. And like some others already mentioned their questions don’t lie with their players and their abilities. They have struggled and fought with the Spanish Federation for over a year now over both wages and team direction. In fact last year 15 players backed away from the national team duty and only 3 of them are on the current roster, If the distraction get to their heads then they could be in trouble. But the reality is they should win the group and anything less than making it to the quarterfinals will be seen as a disappointment. Keep and eye  on Alba Redondo. The Spanish Premier League scored in 19 of her 30 league matches. Scoring in over 63% of those matches was a league high. She’s good and deadly from inside the penalty area.

Zambia –  Another first time visit to the WWC, 1 of 8. And they are another team basked in controversy as head coach Bruce Mwape under investigation for sexual misconduct. Hard to imagine hat the combination of those two factors bodes well for the teams chances. Now on the plus side of the equation they are a very fast team, especially in the attack. If they catch a defense napping they may get a breakaway or two. be careful of Barbara Banda, Racheal Kundananji, and Grace Chanda. They can cause trouble for any teams defense. But their defense wasn’t really tested in last year’s African Nations Cup. But the will get tested in this group and may have trouble keeping their opponents in check.

Prediction – Spain and Japan are the clear favorites to advance and they should. But if CR can pull of an upset they could move on. Zambia will head home.

Group D

China – When pundits say that FIFA rankings don’t mean much, China is one of the poster children. Ranked #13, but have not played well at all outside their Asian continent having gone 0-2-2 against European teams lately. That doesn’t bode well when they have to face England and Denmark. They did however, win the AFC Asia Cup last summer and will be looking to carry that momentum forward. The problem they face is that only a couple of their players play abroad and they just don’t get the exposure to higher level play that you need headed into a tournament like this. If they can score a few goals and not break down in the back they have a shot to move on.

Denmark –  While FIFA has them ranked 15th and behind China I think this is more a reflection of the much tougher competition they face than which side is really better. And I think Denmark is better than China. They are a team build much like the US. Some experienced players blended with some young up and comers. Pernille Harder, Captain of the Danes, returned last fall from a long term injury and good news is he didn’t look like she had missed a beat. The Chelsea star was featured in 10 matches for the Blues and they won them all. In matches she didn’t start they won but 9 of 12. And best of all she came off the bench in the FA Cup Final and set up Sam Kerr for the match winning goal. As Harder goes, so goes Denmark.

England – A #4 ranking (and FIFA has this one about right) and a team full of quality up and down the field. Coming off their championship run last summer in Euros 2022 nobody wants to face the Lionesses. Coach Sarina Wiegman is looking to take her side to their fourth major tournament final….in a row. That’s simply unheard of in international soccer. But not all is well with them. In their 2 tune up matches they lost to Australia 2-0 and drew Poland 0-0. Not the results nor offensive output you’d like to see. But its also hard to make too much out of those matches. They are played more for fitness and to get some team cohesion built. Fans will know on Matchday 3 (July 22) if they have figured out their woes when the start up against Haiti. I would not want to be a Haitian fan as England will be looking to start strong in this tournament.

Haiti – Another country making their first visit to the WWC and its hard not to route for them. Amid all their federation troubles and a country overrun with gangs they have somehow managed to build a pretty respectable soccer program (both the women and men). They have some interesting talent but pay particular attention to Melchie Dumrnay. At only 19 she is one of the most sought after talents in the game and recently joined French powerhouse Lyon. She’s fast, technically skilled, and just flat out fun to watch. Unfortunately  her side has a very tough group to try and advance out of.

Prediction – England wins the group. Denmark and China battle it out for second and it could easily come down to goal differential. Which would bad news for Haiti.

Group E

The group most fans will be watching for two reasons. First, the most TVs tuned in will be from the US. Second, other than a fans home country they all want to watch the US to see if they can get shot down.

Netherlands – Interesting that the two finalists from 2019 got drawn into the same group. Crazy how this kind of things seems to happen all the time. Certainly its just the luck of the draw right? Let just cut right to the bottom line. The Dutch are going to be much weakened with the loss of their superstar Vivianne Miedema. She led the team in scoring at the 2019 WWC and during qualifying for this tournament. That’s a big blow to this team. But all is not bad news for this loaded team. They still have Lineth Beerensteyn (4 goals in their last 4 matches) and Lieke Martens (3 goals in their last 5 matches). One thing that they do very, very well is to score off set pieces and their set piece taker is superb. Sherida Spitse. She was tied for assists at the last WWC with 4 and all 4 came on set pieces. This will be tough to defend against especially for the newcomer teams (Portugal and Vietnam).

Portugal – Another of the newcomers but keep an  eye on this team. They have shown a lot of resilience to get here. First, they didn’t even qualify for Euros 2022 but when Russia was banned they replaced them. That international experience no doubt helped them qualify for the WWC as they had to take the long road by playing in the inter-confederation playoffs in New Zealand in February. Having to take a difficult path may serve them well this next month. The biggest of field factor they have going for them is going to be the approach of head coach Francisco Neto. He has been a strong believer in playing as many players and getting them as many minutes as possible. So while they don’t have the pure talent level of most of the better teams they do have a roster full of players that can get the job done. And in a long ordeal like this tournament will be that will help them immensely. Unfortunately, its probably not enough.

United States of America –  This team is not ranked #1 in the world because they are fan and advertiser favorites. They are the most talented, top to bottom, team in the tournament. But still you have to perform and there are several teams capable of knocking them off. As Co-Captain Alex Morgan said, “we know going in that we have a target on our back.” Every team they play will be looking to knock them off and become the answer to the trivia question “which team kept the USWNT from winning its 5th WWC and 3rd in a row.”  They have won 50% of the WWCs to date. But the women’s game has advanced a ton and there are no longer a bunch of teams at the tournament that are just there to fill out the schedule. Sure there are still a bunch of weaker sides but they still know how to play the game and can pull off upsets now and then. Ok enough of that nonsense. The US IS the best team in the world and they ARE going to win this thing. They are just too good, too deep, and maybe most importantly, too driven. Now the expected caveat: Missing Becky Sauerbrunn, Mallory Swanson, and Catarina Macaria is huge. Other than the US, no team in the world could be missing their key center back and 2 of their 3 front line starters and still be favored to win. That’s just how stacked this team is. The only area of concern is on the back line. Naomi Girma and Alana Cook (the expected center back pairing) are very strong albeit young players. Will the pressure of the big stage get to them?

Vietnam – Also a newcomer so this group has 50% newcomers and 50% top teams in the world. Can you tell where I am going with this? Then its hard to get much worse than having your first ever WWC match be against the USA. What are the expectations? Here’s a quote form their head coach Mai Duc Chung “just one goal will make history.”  Well I hope they get one but it will have to be in the Group Stage as they will head home after that.

Prediction – There are zero excuses you can come up with for the US and Netherlands not advancing out of this group. Zero.

Group F

Many analysts have this as their Group of Death. For pretty much the same reason I chose Group B. In this case its 2 top teams and 2 outsiders one will terrific speed up top and one with a stout defense.

Brazil – One this we know for certain about this Brazilian side. This will be Marta’s 6h and last WWC. She has scored in all 5 of her previous tournaments and is the all time women’s goal scoring leader with 17 goals in 20 matches. But for this time around the leader and go-to player will likely be Rafelle Souza. While she plays in the back line it is her ball carrying ability and deadly passing that makes her so dangerous. In the Women’s Super League she averaged over 5 completed passes into the attacking 3rd per match. That creates a lot of chances for their front line. Interestingly enough they play France on July 29th. A rematch of the 2019 Round of 16 match that saw France win 2-1. Brazil will be looking for revenge. The question for this Brazilian team is will their young players show the typical South American flair or will the pressure get to them. Are they ready for the big stage to get back to being a dominant side or are they still a cycle away? I think they are ready.

France – A top 5 favorite to win it all and currently ranked, yup ranked #5. They also have a new coach in Herve Renard who becomes just the second coach to take a men and women’s team to the WC (Canada’s John Herdman is the other). But Renard is certainly the first coach to take two teams to a WC within 12 months of each other!  There’s a trivia answer for you! Like most teams they have their bad news good news storyline. The bad news for the French is that their leading scored in qualification, Marie- Antoinette Katoto is out with an ACL injury. The good news is that Eugenie Le Sommer, likely to become their all time WC appearance leader is back after leaving the team in a dispute with the previous coach. But their most important player is probably their center back and captain, Wendie Renard. At 6ft 1″ she is a beast in the air at both ends of the field. She was the French top scorer at the 2019 WWC with 4 goals, 3 of which came off headers (most of any player in the tournament). Defending her on set pieces is a job no player relishes.

Jamaica – Be careful. Be very careful when playing the Reggae Girlz. Jamaica, with all its financial problems, has managed to build a very strong soccer program on both the men’s and women’s side. The women ahd to resort to having a Crowd Funding campaign to support their trip to Australia. But they are down under and ready to roll. And when they roll its usually behind Bunny Shaw. Shaw, the Manchester City goal scoring machine tallied 20 in her 22 league matches this past season. But they will have to find a way to get her the ball in attacking positions. She only had 21 touches around the penalty area in 2019. The key player to improve on that will be midfielder Drew Spence. If Spence doesn’t have to play too far back to support the defense then they could make some noise. But that’s a big if. In 2019, Jamaica allowed a hat trick to an opposing player in all 3 of their Group Stage matches. Ouch.

Panama – A newcomer to the WWC, but they could surprise some fans. During their final qualification stage they allowed zero goals. But they also had a recent friendly against Spain and lost 7-0. So the question becomes do they really have a strong defense or is it really more about who they played? They are one of the lowest ranked teams in the event at #52 and are likely and also ran in this tough group.

Prediction – France and Brazil should advance. Jamaica’s best shot is to beat Brazil if they can press their youngsters into mistakes. Panama goes home.

Group G

One of if not the easiest groups. South Africa is the third lowest ranked team and Argentina has never won a WWC match.

Argentina – Maybe some of the magic from last year’s men’s team will rub off on their lady counterparts. Entering their 4th WWC and still looking for their first win is, well, not a good look. But they have a legit shot this time. To win a match that is. They should be able to get past South Africa. Then there is the other factoid that they haven’t scored a goal in 6 of their previous 9 WWC matches. And lastly they have conceded 37 goals in those 9 matches. Yikes!  I guess if you are a glass half-full kind of person you can say they have no place to go but up. The interesting thing is the schedule. They got Italy first which is a match they could win if the Italians falter a bit. Then the second in the group will be up for grabs.

Italy – They are on a roll having won 9 of their 10 qualifying matches. And in their first 3 WWCs they have never lost an opening match. Well there’s a first time for everything right. Well there is but probably not this time around. One of the things that really helps at the international level is how often players get to play with each other. In this case 4 of the top 10 attacking players in the UEFA Women’s Champions League are from Roma and on this team. Their familiarity with each other could take them well into the knockout stages. But they also didn’t advance out of the Group Stage at last summer’s Euros failing to score and allowing 7 goals. Their head coach Milena Bertolini is on the hot seat to say the least.

South Africa – Coming into their second WWC and ranked way down in FIFA and besieged with money issues. The players refused to play in their tune-up match against Botswana and their Federation had to scramble to put a team together that ended up losing 5-0 and included a 13-year old on their team. But they have been paid just recently so maybe there won’t be a hangover from this distasteful issue. In the 2019 edition they managed a meager 4 shots on goal in their Group Stage matches. That won’t get it done this time either.

Sweden –  Ranked #3 in the world and the clear favorites to win the group. On the plus side they have participated in every WWC to date. They have played more matches than any team in WWC history that hasn’t won the title. They have reached the semi-finals 4 times and the final once when they lost to Germany 2-1 in 2003. Which is a long worded way to say they are always a solid team capable of making a deep run and this year’s team is no different. What makes them so difficult is they tend to play a level up in big tournaments. Match that with talent and you have a dangerous out. This time around the most likely player to create that danger is Barcelona left back Fridolina Rolfo whose role will be to create from the left flank. The problem that she has to overcome is that the style of play between Barcelona and Sweden are vastly different. Barcelona uses a lot of individual flair while Sweden is a more balanced team oriented approach,. Still Rolfo will get it figured out during the Group Stage and they will move on.

Prediction –  Sweden moves on for sure. Italy should unless they have a hiccup against Argentina. South Africa goes home for sure.

Group H

Columbia –  The question for this team, currently ranked #26, is which team will show up? The one that only lost one match the last half of 2022. The COPA America Feminina to Brazil. Or the team that since then has scored in all 7 matches….but only won 2 of them? The talent is there as they showed last summer. Many of their players play in the Spanish La Liga F so are used to playing high pressure matches. But probably none are more important than Mayra Ramirez who led her club team (Levante) to a berth in the UEFA Women’s Champions League qualification and was one of only two Liga F players tallying double digits in both goals and assists. The Columbians will need Ramirez to have a strong showing for them to advance.

Germany – The #2 ranked team in the world and clearly poised to challenge for the Cup. The finished as runners-up at Euros 2022 and ran through qualifying with 9 wins and a single loss scoring goals in bunches…..47 of them to be exact. There is simply no reason they shouldn’t waltz through this group and only the US and England are more favored by oddsmakers to win it all. Much like the US, their coach Martina Voss-Tecklenburg, has of options and roster management will be key to advancing to the end. And no roster decisions will be more important than who she sends out in attack. But you can bet that when the Black/Red/Gold run out onto the field that Lea Schuller will be one of them. The 25 year-old was second (14) in the Bundesliga F with Bayern Munich and was second in goals scored during qualifying (15). She has an incredible Xg  of 0.2/shot. She finds her openings and she makes them count. If the Germans have any questions it lies with their backline. Some injuries have created some gaps and they have allowed goals in all 3 of their preparation matches. Might not mean anything but something to keep and eye on.

 Morocco – The second lowest rated team coming in at #72, and appearing for the first time at the WCC. They will make history once they step on the field as they are the first Arab country to qualify. So there’s that. But expect their visitation to be short lived.  While their women’s program has made big strides they are probably not yet to the level where they can expect results and to advance out of the group. But that’s ok. Baby steps but keep moving the program forward.

South Korea – Their fourth appearance. and third in a row coming in as Asian Cup runners-up. While they historically have made the WWC their general performance has been fairly poor. In their 10 matches they have failed to score in 6 and, worse, allowed multiple goals in 8. That’s just not a recipe for success. But there is a bit positive news. They played 3 preparation matches and won them all!. But don’t get too excited jsut yet. They were all against fellow newcomers to the WCC beating Zambia twice and Haiti. Their best chance is to get a result over Morocco and earn a point against Columbia and hope 4 points is good enough to advance.

Prediction –  Germany skated through and is able to rotate a lot of players. Columbia and South Korea will duke it our for second. Morocco will go home.

When: July 20th to August 20, 2023

Where: Australia and New Zealand (9 total stadiums)

Format: 8  groups of 4 teams. Top 2 in each group advance.

Television: Every match will be shown on the Fox Sports family. All US Group Stage matches will air on FOX.

a. US vs Vietnam July 21 at 9 PM EDT

b. US vs Netherlands July 26 at 9 PM EDT

c. US vs Portugal August 1 at 3 AM EDT

Final: US vs England  with the Stars and Stipes making it a three-peat