English Premier League 2023-2024 Preview

Soccer fans across the country and abroad are awaiting the return of the EPL which starts this Friday with Burnley hosting reigning champions Manchester City at Turf Moor. The match will be shown in the US on the USA Network at 3pm EDT. As in the last several years, EPL matches will be broadcast in the US on the NBC network of channels (NBC, USA, Peacock).Ever wonder why there is a lion in the EPL logo (and there always has been). The lion was chosen as it represents power, courage, and strength.  And I don’t think its a coincidence that the England National Team crest has a lion and are referred to as the Three Lions.

Before we get into a club by club preview lets look at some of the general happenings across the EPL.

1. The players have voted to again take a knee prior to a set of EPL matches. Rather than doing so before each match they will kneel in their say no to racism at opening and final match rounds of the season, as well as dedicated No Room for Racism fixtures in October and April, and Boxing Day fixtures. To me a more effective and meaningful approach than just doing so prior to every match.
2. The home and away uniforms (or kits as they save across the pond) have been revealed for each club. If you want to take a peek at what you’re going to see on the field this fall you can see them here. opening and final match rounds of the season, as well as dedicated No Room For Racism fixtures in October and April, and Boxing Day fixtures.
3. Newly promoted Burnley, Luton Town, and Sheffield United will be hoping to follow suit with last years 3 promoted teams (Bournemouth, Fulham, and Nottingham Forrest) all did and that is to stay up with the big boys. I wouldn’t take that to the bank.
4. For the first time since the 2019-2020 season the mid-winter break will return. This was abandoned for several years due to the COVID pandemic than overshadowed last year by the World Cup in Qatar. Teams will have a break over a two week period in January with the exception that there will still be handful of matches over each weekend. Matches scheduled for Saturday January 13 will be spit across that and the following weekend to ensure English fans don’t suffer too much of a withdrawal.
5. And perhaps the biggest news is that UEFA has restructured their competitions such that the EPL may earn 5 UEFA Champions League spots instead of 4. In the past the EPL was given 4 slots and only got a 5th in a scenario where the previous UCL winner didn’t finish in the top 4 the following season in the EPL. Now the EPL will earn a 5th spot if any EPL team makes the UCL, UEFA Europa League, or UEFA Europa Conference League final. Is that likely to happen? Well its has happened 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 11 seasons so yes. Of course, teams won’t know if that 5th spot will be in play until late next season but it certainly gives teams in the 5-8th or so spots extra incentive down the stretch.

With that backdrop lets take a look at each club and what to expect this season. And as a caveat to these projections note that there are still several weeks left in the current transfer window.

Arsenal

Last Season – 2nd

Arsenal started incredibly fast last season, and coupled with the slow start by Manchester City, threatened to run away with the thing by the end of the calendar year. But they faltered a bit the second half and Manchester City got healthy and on a roll and knocked the Gunners down a spot. Still a great season and not resting on their results they went after it this summer spending over $250M in transfer fees. Most of that went towards Declan Rice (West Ham midfielder) and Kai Havertz (Chelsea winger). With Buyako Saka (coming off an 15 goal, 11 assists season) returning and surrounded by those two they could be extremely affective in the attack. Is this the year they overtake Man C?

Prediction – 2nd but if Man C stumbles then look out

Aston Villa

Last Season – 7th

After a horrible start they canned manager Steven Gerrard and replaced him with Unai Emery. All Emery did was take his team from worrying about a relegation battle to high enough finish to earn them a spot in the Europa Conference League. Needless to say Villain fans are pretty excited to see how this season unfolds. And Emery has brought in a couple of players in Pau Torres (center back from Villareal) and Moussa Diaby (winger from Bayern Leverkusen). Two pieces that should at least keep the club in the upper part of the table. Should Villain fans be looking for more or a bit of a drop back. They have the potential to stay about wehre they are but I expect them to fall back a couple of spots. Not their own performance but more a matter of teams jumping them.

Projection – 9th

Bournemouth

Last Season – 15th

Interesting off season for the Cherries. The fires their manager and brought in Andoni Iraola. Iraola played for 2 seasons years back for Atletico Bilbao under Marcelo Bielsa and early indications are that that relationship wore off on Iraola. He is planning to run a more attack oriented system which should please fans. Until it doesn’t. If things go well in the early season they could get strong enough to be a middle of the lower half side. But, and its a big but, if their attack leaves then too weak in the back and they start allowing a lot of early season goals don’t expect Iraola to fare well in that scenario. English fans are impatient to say the least. And this is the first non English manager the club has ever had. I suspect he is starting on a short leash out the gate. The problem is they have higher expectations than they followed up with budget. Not the best recipe for success.

Prediction – 18th

Brentford

Last Season – 9th

Well lets just get the bad news out of the way from the get go. Star striker Ivan Toney ( 20 goals in 33 matches last season) was banned for 8 months following an investigation that discovered he had bet on his own team to lose. Originally the ban was going to be 18 months but was reduced to 8 when it was determined that he was a confirmed gambling addict. So how do the Bees replace that production? Well you don’t. Best hope for Bees fans is that the team continues to play high energy soccer and earns enough points to not fall out the bottom until Toney returns. Possible  but expect them to fall in the standings a few spots.

Prediction – 11th

Brighton and Hove Albion

Last Season – 6th

A nice run the last several years for the Seagulls. Back in 2020 they finished 16th. Then in 2021 they were up to 9th and last season up to 6th. They have a stated business model and they stick to it. Sell high and use the next man up mentality. And its hard to argue with their success the last several years. Its a solid model that keeps the club in good financial shape and allows them to continue to have fewer clubs ahead of them than behind them. And this season is probably more the same. A sound side with a good manager and they shouldn’t have any trouble with staying near the upper half of the table,. The flip side of this approach is that its also unlikely to be enough to move them into a top 4 or 5 for a UCL shot. This season I think they will fall back a spot similar to Aston Villa. Not so much a decline on their part but just jumped by teams that have gone out and made bigger additions. Still they will be a fun side to watch and if the chips fall just right they could sneak up as high as 5th.

Prediction – 7th

Burnley

Last Season – Newly Promoted

The Clarets are back in the EPL after just a single season down in the English Championship. So naturally the question will be fo they have enough to stay up or will they yo-yo back down. Tough to see them being much higher than fighting to avoid relegation come the end of the season. Although they did finish 10th just 4 years ago. Under manager Vincent Kompany they ran away with the Championship but the EPL is an entirely different animal. They tried to bring back Nathan Tella but Southampton decided that he might repeat last seasons stellar work and help them to get back to the EPL. After Southampton’s dreadful season last year good luck with that. They also tried to bring in Soumaïla Coulibaly (center back Borussia Dortmund) but that fell through as well.  They’ll get a pretty good understanding of the difference in quality between the Championship and the EPL come Friday’s opener. Hosting Man City will be a tough start.

Prediction – 16th

Chelsea

Last Season – 12th

Well the Blues took a mighty fall last season falling out of the top 10 for the first time since the 2015-2016 season when they finished 10th. Since then the lowest they had been was 5th until last years abysmal showing. To be fair to Chelsea fans (not sure why I should do that but ok) they did have a lot of injuries last season. But I hate to tell them that their woes were not because Christian Pulisic was on the team. Not sure why EPL fans love to blame their clubs woes on an American player but they have done that for years. Well they can’t blame things on Pulisic (transferred to AC Milan) or Kai Havertz (transferred to Arsenal). Good riddance of those damn foreigners they said. Well they don’t have an American on the roster so find a new excuse. Oh wait. The latest transfer rumor is they are targeting Leeds dmid Tyler Adams. Oh dear God pleas say no Tyler. Under new ownership they have cut some expensive payroll but also a lot of high level experience. Will the young newcomers build into a cohesive unit quickly? Time will tell but there is one major factor in Blue’s fans back pocket. The one really smart thing Chelsea did was to bring in Mauricio Pochettino. The Argentinian is a powerful manager with a proven track record most recently at Tottenham. They will be better this season the question is how much better? At the end of the day much of their hope lies at the feel of Christopher Nkunku (RB Leipzig striker). Chelea’s problem last season was finding a combination in the attack that could score goals. Last year’s 38 goals in 38 EPL matches is simply sub par for them.

Prediction – 5th (that could be generous but I like Pochettino)

Crystal Palace

Last Season – 11th

As much a surprise to me as anybody, the Eagles actually finished higher than Chelsea last season. No that is not a misprint. Roy Hodgson was brought in to manage in March taking over for Patrick Vieira. And he was handed a pretty solid roster that just needed some better direction. And Hodgson provided it. But some of the key components of that roster most notably Wilfired Zaha. The striker widely regarded as their best player to ever wear the CP jersey will be missed, big time. As if that’s not enough, there are  numerous clubs targeting CP players most notably the center back pairing of Joachim Andersen and Marc Guehi. If one or both of those get sold it will create some early season issues. The good news is that they have USMNT center back Chris Richards waiting in the wings. He showed enough last season to be able to capably fill either of those two guys shoes.

Prediction – 10th

Everton

Last Season – 17th

Everton secured safety from relegation on the last day of the season. Unfortunately for The Toffees fans this year could be more of the same. Granted there is still time left in transfer window but the lack of investment by ownership so far this offseason doesn’t bode well. They were second to last in goals scored last year and thus far haven’t done anything to improve on the attacking end of the field. With a -23 goal differential you aren’t going to go anywhere. The good news for Everton is that goalkeeper Jordan Pickford signed an extension to stay at Goodson Park until 2027. They need him to be in top form to avoid relegation. The new Board of Directors has promised improved financial support for the club but that has yet to happen. Time will tell.

Prediction – 17th

Fulham 

Last Season – 10th

One of the joys of watching the Cottagers (what kind of name is that?) is to see center back Tim Ream performing at such a high level at 34 years old. The Fulham captain provided a solid defense and was particularly effective when transitioning the attack with co USMNT player Antonee Robinson on the left. In fact Ream was also very good at the WC to the point where Man C manger Pep Guardiola said “if was 24 and not 34 he’d be playing for me.”  Curious to see how he fares this season coming off a bad leg injury and another year on the calendar. But all of us old guys are pulling for him. The biggest question mark for the Cottagers lies in the next month and that is will Marco Silva and Aleksandar Mitrovic still be there? Both have been linked to potential moves to Saudi Arabia. Silva says he’s staying but Mitrovic says he’s leaving one way or the other. That’s not how you want to start the season. Regardless of what happens there they should be well safe from relegation but expect some drop back.

Prediction – 13th

Liverpool

Last Season – 5th

A bit of slip last season but still one of the more dangerous sides in the EPL. Hard not to be when your front runner is Mo Salah (30 goals all competitions). The question mark for Jurgen Klopp’s boys is who is going to man a depleted middle of the field with the departures of Jordan Henderson and Fabinho after Naby Keita, James Milner, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain had already departed. Rather than an offseason tuning of the middle of the field a total rebuild came about. Not what Klopp had planned. Still he is one of the best managers in the game and he has tools to work with including Alexis McCallister and Dominik Szoboszlai which may actually provide more in the final third than the players they are replacing. After their “worst” finish in 5 seasons, they will miss out on UCL. But have their eye on a Europa League title which isn’t a bad alternative. They have two legit shots to get back to UCL next season. A top 4 EPl finish or  Europe League title. I think its a good bet!

Prediction – 4th

Luton Town

Last Season – Newly Promoted

Back in the top flight after several decades its going to be fun for the fans at Kenilworth Road (which seats an astounding 10,356 fans less than every MLS club by a fair margin!. San Jose Earthquakes Pay Pal Park is the smallest at 18,000). Hatter’s fans know they face a tough task to do much of anything but avoid relegation. And its hard to imagine a scenario where they don’t get relegated. They are just too small of a club with not enough resources to play at this level. But there is another side to the picture here. Here are Luton Town’s finishes the last handful of years. 2018-2019 1st in English League One. 2019=2020 19th in the Championship. 2020-2021 12th in the Championship. 2021-2022 7th in the Championship. 2022-2023 3rd in the Championship. Thats one heck of an upward trajectory! Can they sustain that? Sorry Hatter fans but don’t see it happening but I sure as heck will be rooting for them!!

Prediction – 20th

Manchester City

Last Season – 1st

In the history of English top flight soccer no club has ever won 4 titles in a row. Huddersfield Town, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United (twice) have won 3 in a row and failed on their 4th attempt. Will the Citizens break the curse? Its hard to imaging a team with the best goal scorer on the planet (Erling Haaland) and one of the best playmakers on the planet (Kevin DeBruyne) not making a serious run. Frankly its just about all that manager Pep Guardiola’s side has left to achieve. The won the coveted treble last season so what else is there. Of course, the flip side is that they will have a huge target on their back and every other EPL club will be looking to knock them off. Problem is that is a lot easier said than done. While they have lost two key players in Ilkay Gundogen and Riyad Mahrez, they still have a insanely deep roster. How many teams would have a striker like Julian Alvarez who lead Argentina to the WC and only started a third of the Man C’s matches? Last season they tied with Newcastle for the fewest goals allowed with just 33. So what did they do? Brought in Croatian defender Josko Gvardiol. Will they pull off what no team has ever done? Don’t bet against them.

Prediction – 1st

Manchester United

Last Season – 3rd

The Red Devils finally had a season that fans at Old Trafford were happy about. A good enough season to continue with manager Erik Ten Hag. Third in the EPL, winning the Carabao Cup, and losing the final of the FA Cuip will be hard to replicate. Gone are long time goalkeeper David De Gea replaced by Andre Onana (Inter Milan) as well as Harry McGuire. Hard to fathom watching a Man U game without those two toward the back of the field. But they have also added to stellar players in Mason Mount (Chelsea winger) and Rasmus Hojlund (Atalanta striker). Those players should bolster the attacking ability of the Red Devils. However, in their recent US tour things didn’t quite go well. Having won but 1 of their 4 matches and they lost midfielder Kobbie Mainoo with an injury expected to miss the early season.. Needless to say their fans are a bit worried. But the bright side is that Onana seems solid between the posts. Keep and eye on Maino this year. He’s only 18 and has the potential makings of a world class player.

Projection – 3rd

Newcastle United

Last Season – 4th

When Newcastle was purchased by the Saudi consortium they promised to put some money into the club. They have and the results have been superb. Over the last 5 years they finished 13th, 13th, 12th, 11th, and last year 4th. A good enough finish to earn them a UCL berth for this season. Which then comes a different set of problems for manager, Eddie Howe. There is no question that the Magpies have a roster good enough to stay in the upper handful of teams in the EPL. With international quality players like Bruno Guimarães, Sven Botman, Sandro Tonali and Nick Pope what’s not to like. The problem they potentially face is how to deal with the EPL, FA Cup, Carabao Cup, and UCL. The latter being especially problematic. Howe is going to have to do a masterful job of roster manipulation to keep his players fresh as well as playing cohesive soccer. This is not an easy task for any manager. Its going to be even more difficult at St. James Park. is their roster deep enough to deal with all these matches and if not where does ownership place the priority.

Projection – 6th

Nottingham Forest

Last Season – 16th

Lets just get right to the bottom line. Overnight Forest has become one of my favorite EPL teams and one I will watch as much has possible. Do I think they are a special side destined for great things? No not even close. Then why? Simple as it gets really. They just signed USMNT #1 keeper Matt Turner on a transfer away from Arsenal. Turner only managed to get 7 matches with Arsenal and was destined to ride the pine behind Aaron Ramsdale again this year. But at Forest he will likely be their #1. Good for Turner. Good for the USMNT, Good for US fans. Now he has to get the job done and he will have his hands full. But he is one of the best shot stoppers in the world. If Forest doesn’t get staunch with playing out of the back they will have a solid defense. One player to keep an eye out for is central defender Zach Abbott, He just turned 17 in May and made his only first team appearance against Grimsby in their League Cup match. Manager, Steve Cooper is very high on this kid and he may work his way onto the field this season. Where Forest needs to be extra careful in the back is the early season. They face Chelsea, Arsenal, and Man U in 3 of their first 4 matches. Thats a tough stretch for any side. A little uptick might just be in the cards for Forest fans.

Projection – 14th

Sheffield United

Last Season – Newly Promoted

The Blades had a very interesting season down in the Championship last year twice having runs of going undefeated for 10 matches. That consistent level of play and then some will be needed at the much tougher EPL. Do they have some talent? Certainly but their roster is just not at EPL level. Fans were hoping to see several big moves this summer but alas the most notable addition is with center/outside back Auston Trusty (UWMNT and Birmingham City). Trusty will certainly bolster the defense and he has shown to be dangerous when he is let loose down the wings. The problem for Sheffield is their schedule. Throughout the season their predominant pattern is a lower table team then a top tier team. No real way to build any momentum under that scenario. At the end of the season expect their EPL ride to be a short one.

Projection – 19th

Tottenham Hotspur

Last Season – 8th

The Spurs are such a frustrating team. They finished completely out of European soccer for this season. They won’t do what needs to be done to turn themselves into a top tier club yet they hold onto a terrific asset in Harry Kane. They should either be adding to the club big time or letting Kane go for a pot of gold and quickly build for the future.  Instead they keep muddling along and in the end I think they will be sorry (Oriole fans will get this analogy – think Manny Machado). Toward the end of last season they canned Antonio Conte (one of the best in the game) and brought in Ange Postecoglou. Can the former Celtic manager find a way to get this club playing together and good enough to get back into the mix for European soccer? Who knows but I am doubtful. Fans are excited as indications in preseason are that the Spurs are playing a much more aggressive and attacking style of soccer. But scoring goals hasn’t been there problem. Last season they were 4th in the EPL in goals scored. The problem has been at the other end of the field where they allowed 63 (53 as the most any other team in the top 10 allowed). So the question becomes do they score more but give up more? The glass half full crowd can say well the other team can’t score if we have the ball in their final third all the time. We’ll see.

Prediction – 8th

West Ham United

Last Season – 14th

The Hammers won the Europa Conference League last season so get to play in Europe again this year. But they are going to do so without dmid Declan Rice who has transferred to Arsenal. And the only player brought in thus far is a 17 year old striker from the Northern Ireland Football League Premiership. Sorry but that isn’t going to cut it. Now to be fair other than Rice they didn’t lose any players of significance either. Still no real move to replace Rice is a big mistake. They have enough talent to likely stay out of relegation zone but unless they play perfect soccer in unison they won’t do much this season.

Prediction – 12th

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Last Season – 13th

As of today the Wolves have transferred or loaned out 17 players. They have flat out released 8 more players. They have transferred in but 3 players and their club chairman has stated there is no money available to add players. So their roster is whomever is leftover plus whatever they can bring up from their academy. Well that’s not quite all of it. They do have several players returning who were sent out on loan last season,. Bottom line is that Wolves fans are not happy. Ownership says there’s nothing they can do. They are going to need their manager Julen Lopetegui to work miracle. He’s good. But not that good. Oh wait. Never mind. He left and has been replaced by Gary O’Neil. This club is in freefall.

Prediction – 15th (might be too nice)

So there you have it. Not long till the fun starts!