After a long offseason of the coaching carousel, transfer portal and realignment fun – a quick update on that in a moment – we can finally look forward to actual football games! As usual, Week Zero doesn’t offer us much in the way of enticing matchups, but we do get to see two ranked teams in action as #13 Notre Dame play Navy in Ireland and #6 USC hosts San Jose State. Don’t expect any upsets.
Speaking of USC, we already knew they were embarking not here final season as a member of the Pac-12 before they head east with UCLA to the Big Ten. Well, since I last wrote in this space the two LA schools picked up a couple more passengers for that trip, as Oregon and Washington also accepted long-awaited invitations to the Big Ten. That triggered even more dominos, as Arizona, Arizona State and Utah decided to join Colorado (who had already announced a couple weeks prior) that they will join the Big 12 in the summer of 2024. That leaves Cal, Stanford, Oregon State and Washington State as the lone remaining Pac-[insert number here] members. What will happen to them and the conference? As of this writing that’s still anyone’s guess. Cal and Stanford could end up in the ACC, OSU and WSU could end up in the Mountain West, or the four could decide to try and resuscitate the Pac. It’s completely up in the air at this point, but I suspect we’ll have some clarity by the time Week 1 kicks off. Maybe.
Here’s my thought on some of the big questions surrounding the season…
Can Georgia three-peat?
Of course they can. They’re one of the top two or three most talented teams in the sport.
Will Georgia three-peat?
Oh, ok.
The Bulldogs are seeking to be the first team to win back-to-back-to-back titles since the very beginning of the AP Poll era. The last team to do it was….wait until you read this….the Minnesota Golden Gophers. They won the title in 1939, the very first season of the AP Poll, and then were retroactively crowned champions of the two prior seasons. Yeah, that wasn’t on my bingo card either.
As for Georgia, they are loaded with talent once again. Carson Beck had long been viewed as the heir apparent at QB to Stetson Bennett, and that was made official two weeks prior to the opener. Beck has had limited garbage time snaps in his college career thus far, and he’s a different type of QB than Bennett – a strong-armed, mostly pocket passer. But with a solid offensive line in front of him, and more receiving weapons than the Bulldogs have had in recent years, Beck should be fine. I’m more interested in how the man running the offense does. Mike Bobo returns to his post as Offensive Coordinator, replacing Todd Monken who is now with the Baltimore Ravens. Bobo’s prior stint yielded mixed results.
The Bulldogs should get help from a friendly schedule. Their only non-conference Power 5 opponent is Georgia Tech, and they miss tough SEC West opponents like Alabama and LSU. The biggest hurdle on the schedule would appear to be a Nov 18 trip to Tennessee. It would be a surprise if the Bulldogs aren’t playing for the SEC title in Atlanta in December, and they may only need to avoid a blowout to lock up a Playoff spot. But winning a title is another matter. Our last vision of Georgia was them steamrolling TCU, but it was only 10 days prior to that they were a last play field goal away from being eliminated in the semifinal by Ohio State. In the prior season’s championship game they trailed Alabama at the start of the 4th Quarter. It’s not as easy as it may look. I’m going with the bold pick that someone in the Final Four knocks them off and denies a historic three-peat.
Will Caleb Williams win another Heisman?
History says no. The last to do it was Ohio State’s Archie Griffin in 1973 and 1974; and frankly, you could easily argue he was not the most deserving in ’74. As I’ve said in the past, to win a repeat Heisman you are not only competing against the rest of the field, but you are also competing against yourself, specifically what you did the year you won it. Caleb Williams is a very special player. I’ll be surprised if he is not the #1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft. But I don’t see him winning the Heisman again.
So who will win it?
My short list includes such luminaries as QBs Drake Maye (UNC), Bo Nix (Oregon), Michael Penix Jr. (Washington), RBs Blake Corum (Michigan), Trey Benson (FSU), Braelon Allen (Wisconsin) WRs Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio St), Rome Odunze (Washington) Bru McCoy (Tennessee) and TE Brock Bowers (Georgia). I’m going to go with Harrison Jr.
Who are this year’s surprise teams?
Wisconsin is getting a lot of preseason love. I get it. Luke Fickle was a home run hire for head coach. They significantly upgraded the QB position with SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai. The rest of the offensive personnel still have the usual Badger DNA….strong offensive line, a great back in Braelon Allen, and good defense. Can they suddenly transform into the wide-open offense that new OC Phil Longo is known for? I think there could be growing pains. They do get to play in one final season of the very friendly Big Ten West. Playing for the conference title is not out of the question, but I think by then a Playoff berth will be out of the question, even if they prevail over their past opponent.
Texas A&M is also getting a lot of hype, again. I think it is more legitimate this year. They had built a very talented young roster headed into last season, and return much of that talent this year with a year’s experience under their belts. And say what you will about new OC Bobby Petrino (and you can say a lot, not all flattering), but he can run an offense. If HC Jimbo Fisher gives him the reigns, and Fisher has been coy about that thus far, the Aggie offense should be much improved from last season (though it would be hard for it to get worse). But the Aggies play in the SEC West, and must go through Alabama and LSU, and have a road trip to Tennessee to contend with. a 9-10 win season is well within their grasp. A division title and Playoff berth….probably not.
Despite winning back-to-back conference titles, Utah might have been one of my dark horse picks to sneak into the Playoff. But the uncertain status of QB Cam Rising, who tore and ACL in the Rose Bowl, has me hedging on them to surprise. The Utes open against Florida, then travel to Baylor in Week 2. If Rising can’t go, they could be eliminated from CFP contention early once again.
I guess all this is to say I don’t see another TCU – a team on no one’s radar who gets into the Playoff, or is at least in the discussion at season’s end. But that’s the great part about Cinderella teams….you just don’t see it coming.
Who are this year’s overrated teams?
Last year I mentioned Kansas State as a team to keep an eye on before the season. They ended up winning the Big 12 title. Now they enter the season ranked #16 in the AP. I don’t think they will be ranked at season’s end.
Same goes for TCU, who is ranked right behind the Wildcats at #17. They lost a lot off their runner-up squad from last year.
#21 North Carolina’s Drake Maye could win the Heisman this season. But while their defense improved somewhat last season over a dreadful 2021 showing, I don’t see enough improvement for them to be playin for the ACC title now that the conference eliminated divisions and the cushy Coastal is no more.
Who will be the first coach fired?
In season firings have become vogue. That’s not likely to change anytime soon. My money is on West Virginia’s Neal Brown. In 4 seasons Brown has posted a winning season just once, going 6-4 in the abbreviated 2020 season. The Mountaineers kick off the season at Penn State, Duquense, Pitt and Texas Tech at home, then at TCU. A 1-4 start is not out of the question, and with a bye week after that to aid in a transition to an interim, that might be the week to watch.
Northwestern interim David Braun seems unlikely to be back in 2024. The program needs to clean house after the hazing scandal and subsequent attempt to whitewash it.
Keep an eye on the situation at Florida. Billy Napier enters just his second season after a mostly disappointing 6-7 debut. The situation is apparently dire enough that Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz (who had more downs than ups in Madison) was named the starting QB. Harsh as it sounds, brand name SEC schools have little patience (just ask Bryan Harsin).
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.