College Football 2023 – Post Week 4/Week 5 Preview

Week 4 was the first blockbuster slate of the season, with six head-to-head ranked matchups and a seventh that barely missed (FSU at Clemson). Here are my random thoughts on what we saw.

• Clemson let a game get away that might have saved their season. It wasn’t the debacle the opener at Duke was. For much of the game they played well enough to win. But mistakes at critical moments and questionable coaching decision doomed them. At 0-2 in the ACC, with games against the likes of UNC and Miami still to come, even an ACC title seems out of reach now, never mind a CFP berth.
• Not to pile on Clemson, but Florida State was the more talented team. Yet they needed overtime to put them away. Coupled with their narrow win at Boston College the week before, I’m starting to wonder if their second half dominance of LSU was an outlier. They managed to avoid the upset loss both times, and are still the prohibitive favorite in the ACC, but they have not looked like a true title contender in conference play.
• Through a combination of lesser opponents and good coaching, Colorado was able to mask glaring personnel flaws at the line of scrimmage the first three weeks. When you go on the road to play a legit Top 10 team, there’s nowhere to hide a weak OL/DL. That’s all that happened at Oregon when the Buffaloes lost 42-6 – a decent team was dominated by one that had far superior talent. Too many wanted to hype Colorado into something they weren’t (yet). So no need to take any shots at them like they aren’t vastly improved from last year’s 1-11 mess. Their ceiling is 6 wins and a bowl game…and that would have to be considered an unquestioned success in Year 1.
• In a tough Pac-12, it might be time to take Washington State seriously. Their 38-35 win over Oregon State was their second victory over a ranked opponent this season. QB Cam Ward is having the sort of season that would hear him mentioned in Heisman discussions (74.6% completion, 9.8 yards per attempt. 13 TDs, 0 INTs), but in a conference loaded with QBs, he remains an afterthought. After a bye this weekend, two of their next three are on the road at UCLA and Oregon. We’ll know a lot more about them before Halloween.
• If you are an Ohio State fan, you have to be mostly pleased with the result in South Bend. The Buckeyes got a win on the road against a Top 10 opponent, in a slugfest-style game they’ve come up short in recent seasons (Michigan in ’21 and ’22). Their defense held Sam Hartman to just 175 yards passing and 1 TD. Meanwhile, Buckeye QB Kyle McCord had a middling 57% completion rate, just 6.5 yards per attempt and no TDs. But when it mattered most, with the Irish up 14-10 and just 1:26 left, McCord led the Buckeyes 65 yards in 15 plays to win the game, including converting a 4th-and-7. They’ll likely need bigger numbers from him if they are to beat Penn State and Michigan, but it’s a start.
• Now that the SEC is into conference play, maybe we’ll forget about their slow start outside the conference. Alabama looked impressive in returning to an early Sabam-era formula to stifle Ole Miss in the 2nd Half on the way to a convincing 24-10 win. Texas A&M got a nice win against Auburn when former LSU transfer QB Max Johnson entered in the 2nd Half for an injured Connor Weigman and threw two TDs. Weigman is out for the season, so Johnson will have the chance to show it was no fluke. Georgia seems like Georgia, but it’s hard to trust your eyes too much based on the competition. LSU struggled more against Arkansas than they should have, but as long as Jayden Daniels stays healthy, they have a chance against anyone. I’m curious to see how good Missouri really is after back-to-back wins against Kansas State and previously unbeaten Memphis.
• It sure seems like there’s been a lot of sniping among coaches this season, whether between each other or towards the media. Lane Kiffin trolling Nick Saban is a given, even though Kiffin is 0-5 against his former boss. Dan Lanning vs Deion Sanders? Ryan Day vs Lou Holtz? Jake Dickert vs Lee Corso? You know what? In a profession where the expectation has always been to take the buttoned-up, cliche-spewing approach, I am all here for this. Ultimately the only opinions these guys need to worry about are the ones in their locker room, and if showing some personality and saying what’s really on their mind gets it done, so be it.

Rankings

My 4-Team Playoff Field

1. Georgia, 2. Texas, 3. Michigan, 4. Florida State

My 12-Team Playoff Field w/1st Round Matchups

1. Georgia (bye)
2. Texas (bye)
3. Michigan (bye)
4. Florida State (bye)
5. Washington vs 12. Fresno State
6. Ohio State vs 11. Notre Dame
7. Penn State vs 10. Oregon
8. Alabama vs 9. Utah

Week 5 Picks

Utah at Oregon State (Line: Oregon State -3.0)

Was a little surprised the Beavers were a favorite in this one, but I guess Vegas has the same hunch as I do….these Friday matchups tend to favor the home team and after taking their first L at Wazzou the Beavers seem poised for a bounce-back against a team that plays a very similar style they do. Biggest concern will be keeping the Ute pass rush off DJ Uiagalalei long enough for the passing game to be a threat. I think they can. (Pick: Oregon State -3 and S/U)

Kansas at Texas (Line: Texas -16.5)

Kansas is off to the same hot start they were last year, but with less fanfare this time around. Texas needs to be careful here to not get caught looking ahead to Oklahoma next week. I’m not feeling an upset here, and I even like the ‘Horns laying 16.5. (Pick: Texas -16.5 and S/U)

LSU at Ole Miss (Line: LSU -2.5)

This one just doesn’t feel right to me. I didn’t like that it took until the final moments for LSU to put away Arkansas in Baton Rouge, and even then I don’t think the Tiger defense is capable of stifling the Rebel offense the way Alabama did in the 2nd Half last week. I think the Rebels bounce back at home. (Pick: Ole Miss +2.5 and S/U)

Notre Dame at Duke (Line: Notre Dame -6)

This may be the biggest football game played at Duke since January 1, 1942, when the school hosted the Rose Bowl Game due to security concerns on the West Coast in the aftermath of the attack on Pearl Harbor. I love what Mike Elko has done in Durham, and I hope he sticks around a while longer, through the bigger sharks will be circling come December. But I don’t think the result will be as satisfying as the opener against Clemson was. (Pick: Duke +6, Notre Dame S/U)