Orioles vs. Rangers; How The Two Teams Match Up

The American League Division Series is set—with the Texas Rangers win over the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card series, the Orioles and Rangers will face off starting this Saturday.

So let’s take a look at how the two teams match up.

How the Orioles and Rangers match up

The Rangers have one of the better offenses in all of baseball. They’re fourth in MLB in wRC+ at 114, third in runs per game at 5.44, they’ve got the third-best team wOBA in the league at .340, the second-best team batting average at .263, and the fifth-best walk rate at 9.5%.

It’s not surprising when you look at their roster—it’s an offensive force to be reckoned with. You’ve got two guys who are likely to get a few MVP votes in Marcus Semien—who’s hitting .276/.348/.478 with 29 home runs and 14 steals—and Corey Seager, who’s hitting .327/.390/.623 with 33 home runs.

And on top of that, you’ve got Adolis Garcia, who’s hitting .245/.328/.508 with 39 home runs and nine steals with some solid defensive numbers on top of that, sporting six defensive runs saved.

In short, if there’s one place the Rangers excel, it’s their offense, which is going to make this series very interesting, because they’re going up against an Orioles pitching staff that ranks seventh in all of baseball in team ERA and fifth in team FIP.

And not only that, many of the Orioles’ starters have turned in excellent second halves. You’ve got Kyle Bradish, who made adjustments during the year—using his fastball less and subbing it out for a more sinker/slider-heavy approach with a solid curveball as an additional breaker—and has turned himself into a flat-out ace, posting a 2.34 ERA and a .243 wOBA against over the second half.

Then there’s Grayson Rodriguez, who after dumping his cut fastball and making some adjustments in the minors, has looked like the Ace Who Was Promised, posting a 2.58 ERA, .263 wOBA against, and a 31.3% strikeout rate in the second half. And perhaps even more notable? Rodriguez’s walk rate in the first half of the year was 10.6%. But in the second half? It dropped to 5.3%.

And we’ve got John Means who returned in early September and through four starts, posted a 2.66 ERA. Now, the strikeout numbers have basically been nonexistent for Means since he returned—he struck out just 10 batters in 23.2 innings—but it’s a small sample size, and if he can keep teams from scoring, I’m not all that concerned.

Now, while I was praising the offense of the Rangers (and they’ve certainly earned it), the Orioles’ offense is pretty darn good too, with the 11th-best team wRC+ at 107 and the 14th-best team wOBA at .325.

It’s not the Rangers, but it might be enough to take advantage of some vulnerable Rangers pitching. While they rank seventh in the Majors in starting pitcher ERA at 3.96, their bullpen is 24th with an ERA of 4.77.

And even their starters aren’t perfect. Sure, Jordan Montgomery pitched a seven-inning shutout against the Rays in Game 1 of the Wild Card series, and Nathan Eovaldi gave up just one run over 6.2 innings with eight strikeouts in Game 2. Without a doubt, those are two guys in the rotation who are going to be tough (and if Max Scherzer returns, which he may, that’ll be even more difficult).

But you also look at Dane Dunning, who made some adjustments this year and turned in an excellent, but unsustainable, first half, pitching to a 2.84 ERA and a .283 wOBA against. But in the second half of the year, Dunning is sporting a 4.69 ERA with a .338 wOBA against. And both Andrew Heaney and Martin Perez have been unreliable at best for the Rangers (assuming the team elects to have either of them start in this series).

Both of these teams have their vulnerabilities, without a doubt. The Orioles’ bullpen isn’t what it was without Felix Bautista, though Yennier Cano & Co. have done a good job holding things down in his absence.

And while Bradish, Rodriguez, and Means have looked pretty good (with an asterisk on Means, because it’s a small sample size), both Dean Kremer and Kyle Gibson have shown a propensity to turn in a dud here and there, and if the Rangers’ offense is clicking, they will take advantage of any weakness your pitching shows.

But at the same time, the Rangers’ pitching staff and especially their bullpen have plenty of openings for the Orioles’ potent offense to run through. If the Orioles are able to keep the Rangers’ offense mostly quiet and take advantage of the Rangers’ pitching when they can, they’ll definitely have a good chance of moving on to the ALCS.

Personally, I think the Orioles will win this series, but I don’t think it’s going to be an easy one. I think it’s going to give many many Orioles fans (myself included) heart palpitations most nights, but ultimately I think the Orioles will come through and win—though I have a feeling it’s going to go all five games.