With the Rangers sweeping the Rays in the Wild Card series, they move on to face the Orioles in the ALDS beginning on Saturday. These two teams faced off 6 times in the regular season, where they split the season series at an even 3-3. As we look toward what is a huge playoff series for both franchises, let’s see how these two teams stack up position by position.
Catcher: Jonah Heim (Rangers) vs. Adley Rutschman (Orioles)
Starting off strong we have Jonah Heim and Adley Rutschman. Both of these guys are top 10 catchers, but Adley is already making a strong case for being the best catcher in the league. Heim has been a slightly above average hitter this season, hitting .258/.317./.438 and posting an OPS+ of 103. Rutschman, on the other hand, comes in batting .277/.374/.435 with an OPS+ of 128. Rutschman also leads all catchers in hits (163) and walks (92). Rutschman is arguably the best player on what has been the best team in the American League this season. Advantage Adley.
Advantage: Adley Rutschman (Orioles)
First Base: Ryan O’Hearn/Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles) vs. Nathaniel Lowe (Rangers)
The Orioles have taken on a platoon strategy at first base this season, with the right-handed Mountcastle typically facing lefty pitchers and the left-handed O’Hearn matching up against righty pitchers (with some DH work for both as well). The Rangers’ first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, however, has played in all but one game this season and has held down the position well. Lowe comes in batting .262/.360/.414 with an OPS+ of 111 while Mountcastle and O’Hearn come into the series batting .270/.328/.452 (117 OPS+) and .289/.322/.480 (122 OPS+) respectively. Lowe, Mountcastle, and O’Hearn enter the series with WARs of 2.6, 2.1, and 1.2 respectively, with Lowe having significantly more at-bats than the other two. The platoon has worked to perfection this season; O ‘Hearn batted .297 with an .802 OPS against righties while Mountcastle has absolutely torched left-handed pitching, batting .338 with an OPS of 1.053. Typically, an everyday starter would have the advantage over a platoon situation, but with how well both O’Hearn and Mountcastle have played all season, I give the combination of those two the edge over Lowe.
Advantage: Ryan O’Hearn/Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles)
Second Base: Marcus Semien (Rangers) vs. Jordan Westburg/Adam Frazier (Orioles)
Whether we look predominantly at Adam Frazier or Jordan Westburg, it doesn’t really matter when the comparison point is Marcus Semien. Semien is a perennial All-Star and has finished Top 3 in AL-MVP voting twice in his career. While Semien’s numbers in 2023 are a tick below the numbers he put up in either of those two Top-3 MVP seasons, they are still prolific. Semien enters the series slashing .276/.348/.478 with an OPS+ of 122 and a bWAR of 7.4, good for 4th-best in the MLB. Semien played in all 162 games this season and has a very strong case for most valuable player on this Rangers team. Meanwhile, Frazier and Westburg have both been solid players; Westburg in particular has been very impressive as a rookie, posting league-average offensive output (OPS 100+) and playing a very strong second base. Regardless, Semien clearly has the advantage over either player right now.
Advantage: Marcus Semien (Rangers)
Shortstop: Corey Seager (Rangers) vs. Jorge Mateo (Orioles)
A case could be made for Gunnar Henderson to be listed as the Orioles’ shortstop, but with Mateo surpassing him in games played at shortstop this season (110 to 83) we’ll save Henderson for third base. It would have been a much closer comparison between Seager and Henderson than this one is – Seager is clearly the better player than Mateo and it isn’t remotely close. Seager ranks right behind his teammate, the aforementioned Marcus Semien, in bWAR this season, coming in 5th in the MLB at 6.9 despite only playing in 119 games. Even with Seager’s missed time, he will almost certainly rank second in AL MVP voting right behind Shohei Ohtani. Seager’s season has truly been incredible; he has slashed .327/.390/.623 with an OPS+ of 170 which only trails Ohtani’s 184. On the other side we have Jorge Mateo, who, after starting the season on a torrid pace offensively, has totally collapsed and proven that his value really only comes from fielding and baserunning (both of which he is fantastic at). This one is clearly no comparison, strong advantage goes to Corey Seager.
Advantage: Corey Seager (Rangers)
Third Base: Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) vs. Josh Jung (Rangers)
Again, this is assuming Henderson plays third (which he often does, particularly against lefty pitchers) at some point in the ALDS. Before we get into Henderson’s numbers, let’s take a closer look at Josh Jung. Jung has put up a very impressive rookie season, batting .266/.315/.467 with an OPS+ of 109 and a WAR of 2.4 In fact, if not for Gunnar Henderson, Jung would be the betting favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year this season (in close contest with the Red Sox’ Triston Casas). Unfortunately for Jung, Henderson exists and he has been, in most people’s eyes, the best position player on the Orioles. Henderson is slashing .255/.325/.489 with an OPS+ of 125 and a bWAR of 6.3, good for 7th-best in the MLB. Henderson’s statcast metrics are also eye-popping: 100th percentile baserunning run value, 91st percentile avg. exit velocity and 95th percentile hard hit % to name a few. From the looks of it, for as long as the O’s can keep Henderson, they’ll have a perennial AL MVP candidate on their hands. Advantage Gunnar.
Advantage: Gunnar Henderson (Orioles)
Left Field: Austin Hays (Orioles) vs. Evan Carter (Rangers)
In the 23 games Evan Carter has played in the MLB so far, he has lived up to the hype and more. Carter was the #8 MLB prospect and #1 prospect for the Rangers prior to his recent call-up, and it’s clear why. Carter has hit an incredible .306/.413/.645 with an OPS+ of 182 and a 1.6 WAR so far and showed no signs of slowing down in a very impressive Wild Card Series performance. Austin Hays, on the other hand, has put together an impressive season of his own, slashing .275/.325/.444 with an OPS+ of 111. Hays made his first All-Star appearance this season and has been a key piece to the Orioles lineup all year. These two players are diametrically opposed; one is an unproven, incredibly exciting rookie while the other is the consistent veteran where you know what you’re going to get – it’s great but maybe not as flashy as the rookie. This is a close one but I still need to give the edge to Hays based on experience and sample size. I do expect Evan Carter to have an impressive series and is undoubtedly one of the Rangers’ biggest offensive threats in this series, but 23 games, no matter how impressive, aren’t enough to usurp a very good player like Austin Hays. In a year’s time this could very likely go the other way, but for now give me Hays.
Advantage: Austin Hays (Orioles)
Center Field: Cedric Mullins (Orioles) vs. Leody Taveras (Rangers)
A strong case can be made that Cedric Mullins has been the most valuable Oriole of the 2020s (despite only playing 48 games in 2020 and 116 this past season). He has been a consistent producer both offensively and defensively for this team for years, as evidenced by the roar from the fans that dwarfs that of most other players on the team whenever he comes up to bat. Mullins is having a bit of a down year offensively for his standards, batting .233/.305/.416 with an OPS+ of 101 on the season. Despite this somewhat disappointing offensive production for Mullins, he has played an incredible center field, ranking in the 92nd percentile in Outs Above Average in the league. Mullins has also delivered time and time again in pivotal moments all season long for the O’s. Taveras on the other hand has been a league-average hitter offensively, slashing .266/.312/.421 with an OPS+ of 97 while also playing a strong center field, tying Mullins in Outs Above Average ranking. Taveras, similar to Carter, is coming off a strong Wild Card Series performance and will try to carry that momentum into the ALDS. While these two players have had fairly similar 2023 seasons, Mullins is the more proven player, giving him the edge.
Advantage: Cedric Mullins (Orioles)
Right Field: Anthony Santander (Orioles) vs Adolis Garcia (Rangers)
Another pretty close matchup here, both of these players are prolific power hitters that have put up very strong 2023 seasons. Santander slashed a .257/.325/.472 line with an OPS+ of 121, while Garcia hit his way to a .245/.328/.508 line with an OPS+ of 123. Both of these players are potentially the best home run hitters on their respective teams, as Santander put up 28 HR and Garcia put up 39 HR (7th best in MLB). Santander also falls short in WAR at 3.0 compared to Garcia’s 4.2. While I wouldn’t want to face either of these hitters as a pitcher, Garcia’s impressive home run totals give him a slight edge over Anthony Santander.
Advantage: Adolis Garcia
The total tally comes to a 5-3 position player advantage for the Orioles, but it’s certainly close overall. Both offenses are strong, with the Rangers being the stronger of the two over the course of the season. This is going to be a hard-fought series – while I like the Orioles to narrowly pull off the series win, only time will tell which team’s stars will shine brighter.
As a Baltimore native, Zach is an avid Orioles and Ravens fan. After interning for the Baltimore Orioles, he currently works as a Senior Quantitative Risk Analyst for OneMain Financial and is a part-time graduate student studying Data Science at the University of Michigan.