The Orioles 2023 Season Ends; Quick Hits

With their 7-1 loss at Texas last night, the Baltimore Orioles were swept out of the American League Division Series ending their 2023 season.

Quick Hits: 

1) If you are an O’s fan in pain today, enjoy that pain a bit. Meaning it’s better to care, and hurt vs. losing 110 games and being completely apathetic right?

2) I’d be lying if I said I was in mourning though. One of the reasons I’m not wearing all black today, is that I don’t think the MLB Postseason really tells us all that much. Meaning analytically, sometimes the numbers are fuzzy even when looking at them through the prism of a 162 game regular season.  In the short-sample size of the playoffs, it’s really no different than flipping a coin. What annoys me are the narratives which get written – good or bad – every postseason with MLB players. Something happens in a short-series and we collectively anoint or destroy players based on their performance or lack thereof in these minimal moments.

3) While I’m not going to be practicing hara-kiri today; there is some disappointment that the O’s didn’t win it all this year, 40 years after their last title and during the year that Brooks Robinson died.

4) Another reason I’m not depressed today is that I believe this ’23 team will be the least talented Orioles team for sometime. You don’t fake your way to 101 wins.  This was a very good team, even if the record was slightly inflated. I just think going forward, the overall talent on the roster will be raised a bit; even if they don’t again win 101 games.

5) For the rest of the decade, I think the O’s are going to be a perennial contender, and I expect them to play a lot of games in subsequent Octobers.  I think they’ll have a number of chances to add hardware, and the organization’s 4th World Championship.  I know that part of the hurt people feel is that any future winning remains to be seen. I can hate the limited sample-size of post-season baseball all I want, but the ’23 O’s won 101 games, and earned the opportunity to get into the playoffs and did nothing with it.  I get that hurts, and I get that the O’s will have to again earn any future opportunities to get back to the playoffs. We know New York and Boston will spend, and improve. We know Toronto maintains a talented core. We know Tampa Bay maximizes everything, and regularly finds a way to compete.  Those divisional challenges will always be there. And we know the O’s 101 wins this year, doesn’t mean the O’s will just waltz into the ’24 playoffs. They are going to have to earn it.

6) I’m really excited about what next year looks like for Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez.  No, I’m not down on Rodriguez at all after his poor outing vs. Texas.  Some will say the moment was, “Too big for him.” That’s what gets written when you are young and don’t come through. And then others will say, “He’ll learn from that, and the experience will be good for him.”  I don’t know that either narrative has any validity. It feels more like something you say. All we know is that on that day, he didn’t come through. It didn’t change my perception of who he is, and what I expect from him going forward at all.

7) I realize most people aren’t going to be receptive to hearing this after his implosion last night, but you can do a lot worse than Dean Kremer as your 5th starter. It didn’t happen last night, but he regularly gives the O’s an opportunity to win. John Means had elbow discomfort and didn’t make the ALDS roster, but he showed enough in his September return, to be excited about him rejoining the O’s rotation next Spring. The Orioles have enough organizational depth (and should have enough money to spend) to go and target one front-end starter (someone that everyone would look at and believe is a #2 starter or better on a winning team). Will they do that? Skepticism until shown otherwise is the right point-of-view here.  Without pursuing a front-end starter, the other options are bringing back Kyle Gibson (or targeting another similar option on a 1 year deal) or Tyler Wells.   I liked Gibson more than most for what he is.  Someone that dependably takes the ball, and most nights gives you a chance.  I respect that. I also think the O’s should be looking to improve on that. Wells – even with the homers allowed – had a great 1st half this year. He had a strong 1st half in ’22 too.  Is he capable of getting through a full season? I like him around as rotational depth, but suspect the O’s will have him in the bullpen to begin ’24.

8) It could be somewhat understandable if the O’s don’t commit the resources needed to obtaining a front-end starter.  What would not be understandable imo, is not adding a high-leverage reliever with the knowledge that Felix Bautista will miss the ’24 season.  No excuses there. The O’s Front Office needs to go target and obtain a reliever they believe is too good to be volatile. Someone they fully expect to produce, and they can depend on.  You aren’t going to find another Felix (2nd overall among relievers in Win Probability Added, behind only former Oriole Tanner Scott, despite the time missed); but that doesn’t mean you can’t find someone where there is an expectation of plus performance.

9) I’m an Austin Hays fan, and I enjoyed seeing him stay healthy enough to make the ’23 All-Star team. I think he’s traded this Winter, and I’m okay with it. I suspect the O’s will want to utilze Hays to bring back something, and they’ll go with Colton Cowser in LF. I think Cowser will bring you most of Hays’ offensive out-put.  We will see about the defense. For all of the chatter among many O’s fans about Hays defense to begin this year, he still ended up showing as above-average with the glove according to UZR / 150, and DRS.  And he was average according to Statcast.  His arm remained excellent, and was needed in that big home LF.

10) Cedric Mullins had a .721 OPS in ’22, and a .721 OPS in ’23. He’s excellent in CF, and the O’s don’t have anyone that could potentially replace him internally. He’s arbitration eligible in ’24, and ’25, and a FA after ’25. I could see maybe doing a 3 year deal where the O’s have his Age 31 season in ’26; but I could also just see letting these next two years play out.

11) The O’s wanting to use Adley Rutschman as a DH for 35-40 games a year, impacts roster construction.

12) The Birds have a lot of depth and possible answers.  They could start the year with Joey Ortiz as the everyday SS, Gunnar Henderson at 3rd, and Jordan Westburg at 2nd. Jackson Holliday will factor by mid-season next year. I’ve written previously that I expected Holliday to take over SS by the middle of ’24. I’ve seen some recent questions about Holliday’s glove. Let’s see what the defensive reports look like after another off-season of development, and several months of games in ’24. If he can hold down SS dependably, I think him taking over SS happens. If he has to move to 2nd, things get a little interesting.  Then it’s how did Ortiz and Westburg both look over the initial months of ’24. Who are you higher on?  And do you (the O’s FO) like Henderson better at SS vs. 3rd?

In the OF, I mentioned I see the O’s trading Hays, and going with Cowser in LF.  Some might wonder where that leaves Heston Kjerstad?  It’s a good question.  You’ve also got to factor in Rutschman DH’ing for 35 games, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountastle, Ryan O’Hearn, and soon Coby Mayo.  I’d expect Mountcastle and O’Hearn to be back to begin ’24.  But I don’t think it’s out of the question that at some point next year that Kjerstad and Mayo are getting a lot of ab’s at 1st and DH.

13) I don’t know how to evaluate a Major League Manager like Brandon Hyde, because I’m not in the clubhouse.  You think of what a Manager’s job is, and the different components thereof. There’s dealing with players. There’s dealing with the Front Office.  There’s dealing with Media.  A lot of times you are talking as the representation of the organization to the fanbase. Do you keep the players motivated? Do you keep issues within the clubhouse?  Are you in lock-step with the FO?  In 2023, many of the decisions you’ll face in-game have already been talked about pregame with the FO, and decided collectively.  How do you manage a pen? The O’s players have spoken glowingly about Hyde. I give those comments value over any of the in-game decisions I sometimes shake my head at.

14) It’s great that the O’s and Maryland have a memorandum of understanding.  I’ve never believed there was any chance a lease wouldn’t happen. They shouldn’t have announced it as ‘done’ when the lease wasn’t officially signed. Get that finalized and be done.

15) The O’s ’23 attendance was 1.93M, good for 21st overall. Expect that to increase considerably in ’24. I’m thinking 2.3M or better.

16) Henderson is the presumptive ’23 American League Rookie of the Year.  In ’24, I think he’s fully in the MVP mix.

17) The O’s entered the ’23 season coming off of a solid ’22, but with no real expectations from the Media or the Fanbase.  If anything, the general consensus was there would be mild regression from ’22. Maybe that helped fuel the O’s this year.  I think the reduction of division games helped. This team seemed to gel early and have good vibes and camaraderie. A bunch of young guys having fun. You always wonder if that’s chicken or the egg.  Does winning bring about a quality culture where everyone is ‘happy’? Or does the quality culture help enable you to win?  Realistically the answer is probably both. Next year will be an adjustment as there will be expectations for the roster. We will see how they handle that. Ultimately the ’23 O’s were a strong team that won a lot of regular season games, because the talent reached a point where most nights they were the better team. They came-up short in the playoffs. Maybe you think that was more telling than I do, and that all of their limitations were brutally exposed against a quality Rangers team. Myself, I think it was a blip. I think the Birds have a talented roster that is only going to get better from here. I enjoyed this year, and I’m already looking forward to ’24. My message to the O’s Front Office and Ownership would be, you got many O’s fans out of hibernation this year. Build on that. Make some decisions, and augment what you have.

Pitchers and Catchers are about 4 months away.

Hope Springs eternal.