College Football 2023 – Post Week 7/Week 8 Preview

Week 7 of College Football brought us what may have been the best game of the season so far. Oregon and Washington, for the first time in their 103-game history, were both ranked in the Top 10 when they squared off at Husky Stadium on Saturday afternoon. As you would expect between two evenly-matched CFP contenders, it was a back-and-forth affair that came down to the final play. In this case, that final play was a missed Oregon FG attempt that would have sent the game to overtime. Extra football would have been perfect on this occasion, but 60 minutes was all that was in the cards.

This game was defined by two things. One was Husky QB Michael Penix Jr (with a big shout out to his receiving corps). Penix backed up the building Heisman hype with the type of performance that had this been late November instead of mid-October, might have sealed the trophy for him. On the day he was 22-for-37, 302 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT. Most memorable was his final possession when, dow by 4 with 1:38 left, he threw two beautiful passes in just a two play drive for the go-ahead TD that would prove to be the game-winner. And lest everyone downplay it by pointing out how he tore up a weak Ducks defense in Washington’s victory over Oregon last year, this year’s Oregon defense has proved itself much more worthy – they just weren’t good enough to overcome the nation’s most lethal passing attack.

The other defining aspect of this game was the decision-making of Oregon head coach Dan Lanning – in particular his choices to go for it (unsuccessfully) on several 4th Downs when kicking or punting would have been the much more conventional approach. Lanning has faced a lot of criticism for this choices in the ensuing days. Passing up the two chip-shot field goals, when 6 points obviously would have swung the outcome of the game, is easy to criticize in hindsight. Same goes for Lanning’s decision to go for it on 4th-and-3 ahead of what would turn out to be Washington’s game-winning possession, which set the Huskies up in good field position versus pinning them deep with a punt. Personally, I love coaches who take the aggressive approach in big situations, so I have no issue at all with two of those choices.

The one I would have done differently was when he eschewed the easy FG on the final play before halftime. I say that because the Ducks, down 22-18 at the time, were set to get the ball to begin the 2nd Half. In that situation, I’d take the points and snuff any chance for Washington to go in to the locker with momentum, with the expectation that you’ll be more aggressive going for the TD in that opening 2nd Half possession to swing the score by 10 points. It turned out the Ducks went three-and-out in that opening possession. How much the missed opportunity before the break affected that obviously can’t be quantified, but it sure didn’t help.

Ultimately, while this was unquestionably a big game that could have end-of-season ramifications, neither team made or broke their season. They looked evenly-matched enough that the AP voters didn’t really move either team much – Washington entered the game ranked 7th and is now 5th, while the Ducks only dropped from 8th to 9th. A strong case can be made that they will have a rematch in Las Vegas on December 1. The big impact of this outcome is simply which team would lose its margin for error. That’s no small deal, as both face very challenging schedules the rest of the way. The Ducks must now play Washington State at home, then hit the road for a huge game at #14 Utah the next week. They also have to face #18 USC and #12 Oregon State, though both are at least at home. Washington faces a near-identical schedule the rest of the way, only their game against Utah is at home, along with the finale against Washington State, while they must go on the road to play USC and Oregon State.

Stay tuned, it’s gonna be a quite a finish out in the wild, wild West.

Staying with West coast-based teams (well, one at least), I can’t say I was all that surprised by the final score of the Notre Dame – USC game (Irish won handily, 48-20). After all, I did confidently pick Notre Dame to cover as a home favorite. I thought the Irish defense could slow down the Trojan offense enough to outscore them thanks to a very leaky USC D. Well, I was right on everything but how this game unfolded. It turns out that USC’s defense only surrendered 251 total yards in the entire game. This debacle was mostly on the Trojan’s offense, who turned the ball over five (5!) times. The first four all led to Notre Dame touchdowns, and the last one was at the very end of the game, after which the Irish channeled their anti-Mario Cristobal and took a kneel down. Lest the offense get all the blame, the USC kick coverage teams were awful as well.

Maybe the reason the Irish didn’t put up big yardage numbers is simply because USC kept setting them up with such short fields? No matter. It was ugly; easily Caleb Williams’ worst game as a collegian – he threw 3 interceptions, all in the first half, and was harassed all night by Notre Dame’s rush. The subtle signs have been there that this Trojan offense is not the lethal force it was last year, and Saturday they were laid bare for all to see. As is often the case, the issue begins up front with an offensive line that has been poor at pass-protection and commits too many penalties, most of them of the mental, pre-snap variety on this occasion. There are some things that an offensive guru, a wizard at QB and speed that kills at the skill positions just can’t cover up. And while one loss to a ranked foe, out of conference no less, doesn’t technically end USC’s playoff hopes by any means, it’s really hard to see this team surviving the remaining gauntlet it faces in the Pac-12 without multiple losses (Utah, at Cal, Washington, at Oregon, UCLA).

It was a signature win for Notre Dame, who while they likely have no chance at the CFP are still in strong position for a 10-win season and a New Year’s Six bowl – only a November 4 trip to Clemson would appear to have the potential for a stumble. For some Irish fans, just playing in a big bowl might come as a disappointment in a season where they had high hopes with ACC TD record-holder Sam Hartman arriving via the portal to take over at QB. Understandable, given that their two losses were a heartbreaker against Ohio State and an inexplicable clunker at Louisville (which in hindsight looks more inexplicable after the Cardinals’ 17-point loss to a bad Pitt team last week). But some of that is the price they pay for being independent, which to be in the playoff picture requires tough scheduling and less margin for error.

The big news in the wake of the Week 7 games may have come out of Georgia. On Monday, it was announced that TE Brock Bowers will undergo ankle surgery after he suffered a hihi-ankle sprain in the Bulldogs’ win over Vanderbilt. No timeline has been given for his possible return, but typical recovery times after surgeries of that nature is usually 3-6 weeks. Suffice to say Bowers will be out the next several games, just as Georgia’s schedule gets more challenging.

First, this is a shame for Bowers personally. He was having the kind of season that was deserving of being a Heisman finalist, a rare feat for a TE. Fortunately it’s not serious and thus should not affect his status as a surefire early 1st Round NFL pick next spring. And assuming a smooth recovery, he should be able to return for at least Georgia’s postseason game(s). Whether or not he chooses to do that, or if Georgia plays it very conservatively with his pro career on the near horizon, remains to be seen.

As for the Bulldogs’ prospects the rest of the season, this obviously hurts. The question is, how much? Generally, when you have a team that is as stacked with elite talent as Georgia, only losing the starting quarterback could truly derail a season. Of course, Brock Bowers isn’t just your everyday non-QB and has meant a lot to that offense. QB Carson Beck has taken gradual steps forward this season in his first year as the starter. I thought he did a terrific job of spreading the ball around in the big win over Kentucky in Week 6. He’ll obviously need to do a lot more of that going forward. I’d say losing Bowers for multiple games reduces Georgia’s playoff odds by 5%, give or take. Not huge, but not insignificant if they end up facing an opponent that matches up well with them.

Rankings

My Four-Team Playoff if the season ended today

1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Oklahoma 4. Washington

My Predicted Four Team Playoff

1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Florida State 4. Texas

If the 12-Team Playoff Started This Season

1. Georgia (bye)
2. Michigan (bye)
3. Florida State (bye)
4. Texas (bye)
5. Oklahoma vs 12. Air Force
6. Oregon vs 11. North Carolina
7. Alabama vs 10. Ohio State
8. Washington vs 9. Penn State

Week 7 Picks

Penn State at Ohio State (Noon ET, FOX, Line: OSU -4.5)

The Buckeyes have dominated this series of late, winning six straight and 10 of 11.  Ohio State comes in with the more talent-laden team and better offense. So I like….Penn State. Why? I think they can exploit the Buckeyes’ most glaring weakness – a relatively subpar offensive line that struggles with pass protection. The Lions posses a fierce pass rush that should be able to harass Kyle McCord and force enough negative plays to keep Ohio State off the board most possessions. The Lions offense hasn’t really impressed, but if they can get in the red zone they have been very efficient there. Gimme the upset here.

Pick: Penn State +4.5 and S/U

Washington State at Oregon (3:30pm ET, ABC, Line: Oregon -20)

I like the Ducks to bounce back after a heartbreaking defeat in Washington last week. 20 points seems like a lot here though. It wasn’t long ago the Cougars were ranked #13 coming off a big victory over Oregon State. What happened? A hard fought loss at UCLA followed by a curb-stomping at home against an Arizona team that while playing well of late, should not have beaten them 44-6. It’s hard to tell what happened that led to such a beatdown, but Wazzou is better than that. Still, they’re reeling now and a trip to Eugene to face an angry Duck squad doesn’t sound like the best medicine.

Pick: Oregon -20

Tennessee at Alabama (3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Alabama -9)

While no one was paying attention, Tennessee has become a running team. Their 231 yards per game are 6th in the nation. Meanwhile, their 212.5 yards per game passing ranks just 87th. All this is to say the quarterback transition from Hendon Hooker to Joe Milton has not been seamless. Still, thanks to that running game and an improved defense the Vols sit at 5-1, with a path to the SEC East title still in front of them. But that path includes winning at Tuscaloosa, something they have not done since 2003. Can their offensive line control the line of scrimmage enough to keep Milton from having to air it out? I don’t think so. But Alabama doesn’t blow anyone out these days, even at home, so I’ll split this one.

Pick: Tennessee +9, Alabama S/U

Duke at Florida State (7:30pm ET, ABC, Line: FSU -14.5)

My confidence in picking this game is entirely dependent on the status of Duke QB Riley Leonard. After sitting out last week’s game at NC State with a high ankle sprain it has been reported he might play. I’m going to say that with a spot in the ACC title game still on the table for Duke, Leonard plays, and that plus Duke’s defense keeps this close.

Pick: Duke +14.5, FSU S/U

Utah at USC (8pm ET, FOX, Line: USC -7)

Unlike Duke’s Riley Leonard, I don’t expect we will see Utah QB Cam Rising. Not in this game, and quite possibly not this season (at this point I expect he’ll apply for a medical redshirt and return in ’24). TE Brant Kuithe is in the exact same situation. The Utes offense has suffered with their loss – they’re just 114th in FBS at 322 yards per game and an even more anemic 123rd in yards per play (4.81). So they are going to have to slow down the Trojan offense enough to give themselves a chance. Luckily, Notre Dame handed the Utes the blueprint on how to go about that. Utah does have the pass rush to harass Caleb Williams the way the Irish did. This feels to me a lot like last season’s USC at Oregon State game. The Trojans scored what was by far their season low in points, yet they managed to win 17-14 on a late TD drive.

Pick: Utah +7, USC S/U