The 2023-2024 College Basketball Season is now less than one week from tipping off. Last season, we saw an NCAA Tournament unlike anything we had ever seen before with zero number one, two or three seeds ending up in the Final 4. Florida Atlantic had won zero NCAA Tournament games in program history prior to last season, and ended up collecting 4 of them in a two-week span. The distinct changes to College Basketball via NIL and the Transfer Portal has led to a little bit of a more even and unpredictable playing field, especially in the Month of March. Here are some teams that not everyone would necessarily see coming, that can turn a lot of heads this season and maybe even end up in Phoenix.
Auburn
Bruce Pearl’s team has participated in each of the last four NCAA Tournaments they were eligible for and have become one of the most consistent programs in sport in the last five years. At this time in 2022, Auburn lost two players that were selected in the first round of the NBA Draft, having a ton of question marks entering the season. Auburn struggled at times last season, including going 2-6 in an eight-game starting in the middle of February during SEC Conference play.
Without those two first round picks Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler, Auburn just didn’t have enough fire power offensively. The Tigers were about average in most of the offensive scoring statistics last season and the backcourt of Wendell Green and Zep Jasper was just too inconsistent scoring the basketball. It was clear many times last season that as well coached as Auburn was, the firepower for a deep tournament run just wasn’t there. Auburn’s personnel last season didn’t stand out like they have in years past, and yet Bruce Pearl was still able to get this team to the NCAA Tournament. Auburn was even able to beat Iowa in their opening round game and pushed #1 seeded Houston to the brink in the Round of 32.
This season, they will return five of their top seven leading scorers from 2023. That includes Forward Johni Broome, who played his best basketball at the back end of last season and should be one of the premier players in the SEC this season. In addition, Auburn added Five Star Freshman Point Guard Aden Holloway who will be playing in the NBA sooner rather than later.
With guys like Jaylin Williams, KD Johnson, Trey Donaldson and Dylan Cardwell all returning for bigger roles, Auburn’s personnel will be flat out better than last season. That is a scary sight for the rest of the SEC, as Bruce Pearl has averaged 23.4 wins per season in each of the last five years. Pearl is the only Head Coach in the history of Auburn Basketball to lead this program to the Final 4. We can see history repeating itself in 2024.
Boise State
The Mountain West Conference made history a season ago, getting one of their programs to the Final 4 for the first time ever. This was due to ultimately happen, considering this league has established itself as one of the best and most consistent conferences in Mid-Major Basketball. That won’t be changing this season as more than 50% of the league will enter this season with legitimate NCAA Tournament Aspirations. One of them is Boise State, who has qualified for each of the last two NCAA Tournaments and have qualified for the big dance four different times under Head Coach Leon Rice.
The one thing that this Boise State program hasn’t accomplished yet however, is that illusive first NCAA Tournament victory. Boise State is 0-9 in the NCAA Tournament all time, including 0-4 under Rice. So why would that all of a sudden change this season? Primarily Boise State has won a combined 51 games in the last two seasons. That is the most wins in a two year stretch in program history. Boise State will also return three of their top four leading scorers from last season, and a handful of quality impact transfers.
One of those returnees is Junior Tyson Degenhart, who established himself as one of the premier players in the Mountain West last season, averaging 14.1 points per game and shooting 32.8% from three. This Boise State team will be much improved on offense in general, with the addition of highly skilled Kansas Transfer Cam Martin, who can score with the best of them in the Mountain West and will have a featured role for this Boise team. With other guys like Max Rice, Chigbuzo Agbo, Omar Stanley and Roddie Anderson III in the mix, this is a team that is very well balanced that will win a ton of basketball games.
The Broncos are well coached, experienced, and can shoot the ball from all over the court. They are more than due to win that first ever NCAA Tournament game in program history, and once you get that first, it will only get easier.
Illinois
Since the start of the 2013-2014 season, there have been nine NCAA Tournaments that have taken place. Brad Underwood coached teams have qualified for seven of them, showing he is one of the most consistent coaches in the country. The one thing for Underwood to accomplish now however, is getting to the second weekend of the big dance and ultimately the Final 4. There aren’t many teams in College Basketball that will have a better 1-2 punch this season than Terrance Shannon Jr. and Coleman Hawkins.
These two players combined to average 29.7 points per game last season, and have played a combined 205 College Basketball games in their career. The question is though what makes this Illinois team so different from last year’s team that clearly wasn’t on the same page? While it was only an exhibition game and there aren’t a ton of massive conclusions to take away from, the Illini looked much more poised against Kansas on Sunday afternoon. Last season it felt like if someone made a mistake they would let that affect them on the next possession. That in part had to do with certain players having prominent roles that they just weren’t necessarily ready for. In addition, this team feels much more balanced with a clear go-to scorer in Shannon, a great passer and shooter in Hawkins, plus really good role players including Ty Rogers, Marcus Domask and Quincy Guerrier.
This is a team that fits together really well and it was pretty clear what everyone’s particular role was on Sunday against Kansas. This is noteworthy due to the fact that at times last season, it felt like everyone on offense just took turns getting their shots up instead of actually running anything.
Despite everything that went wrong for this Illinois team last season, this team is ultra-talented and very well coached. If things go right the sky’s the limit for this Illini team, and they can compete with Purdue and Michigan State at the top of the Big Ten.
Providence
There were a ton of questions in Providence, Rhode Island this offseason, when longtime Coach Ed Cooley decided to pack his bags and become the next Head Coach of Georgetown. Not only was it shocking to Friar fans to see their Head Coach leave, but for a job in conference? That was a gut punch to the entire fanbase and Cooley’s return to Friartown on January 27th will be must-see TV. Despite losing their Head Coach however, the new guy in town Kim English, had about as good of an offseason as you can ask for.
Providence was able to retain two of their top three leading scorers from a season ago in Bryce Hopkins and Devin Carter. Hopkins will enter this season as one of the premier players in the Big East Conference, after having no issues as the clear-cut go to scorer for the Friars last season.
In addition, Carter is one of the premier defenders in all of College Basketball and the culture that Ed Cooley built the last handful of seasons will still be intact in a big way. There are many instances in recent College Basketball memory where a Coach leaves similarly to the way Cooley did and his best players will follow. While that was certainly on the table this offseason, Hopkins and Carter decided to hold firm and return to school. In addition, English was able to retain promising young players like Jayden Pierre and Garwey Duwell.
Pierre played sparingly as a Freshman last season for the Friars, averaging 2.5 points in only 11 minutes per game. While those numbers don’t necessarily pop out, anyone who watched this Providence team last season knows how promising of a player Pierre can be. If he had decided to transfer this offseason there would have been a ton of suitors from the high major ranks and he will play a much bigger role for the Friars this season.
Dual committed to Providence thinking he’d be playing for Cooley, and decided to stay for the new coaching staff. The Four-Star Freshman has generated a ton of chatter in the NBA ranks with his appealing 6’5” size and athleticism. This Providence team and overall talent level is better than most realize and they will be right in the mix for a third consecutive NCAA Tournament bid.
Texas Tech
Everything that could have gone wrong did end up going wrong a season ago in Lubbock. Texas Tech entered last season as the #25 ranked team in the country, expecting at minimum to get back to the NCAA Tournament. Instead, they started 0-8 in Big 12 Conference play and the season felt over before it even really got started. A lot of this had to do with the fact that Texas Tech was extremely active in the Transfer Portal last offseason and didn’t have the right mix of players. There weren’t many clear-cut roles for anyone, and every game it felt like we would be seeing a totally different team.
That shouldn’t be the case this season, with first year Head Coach Grant McCasland in town. McCasland did historic things during his time at North Texas, including being the all-time wins leader in program history and leading the program to their first ever NCAA Tournament victory in 2021. McCasland’s first big move after arriving in Lubbock, was retaining Pop Pop Isaacs as the only primary returner from last season’s team. Issacs will enter this season with realistic Big 12 Player of the Year aspirations, after averaging 11.5 points per game as a true Freshman.
The pieces that Coach McCasland brought in from the Transfer Portal should fit really well around Pop Pop including trustworthy experienced ball handlers in Devan Cambridge and Joe Toussaint, a true rim protector in Warren Washington. That isn’t even including the reigning Mountain West Freshman of the Year in Darrion Williams to provide some offense scoring punch.
Although it’s rare for a first year Head Coach to get their program to the Final 4 in their first season at their new destination, it is possible. Hubert Davis and North Carolina went on a magical run in 2022, in North Carolina’s first season without Roy Williams roaming the sidelines. Despite everything that went wrong a season ago, the hiring of Grant McCasland should be one that ages well, and his Red Raiders will be really good right away in this year’s Big 12 Conference.
Zac Krull has covered College Basketball for the last 2 years while working with Aaron Torres of Aaron Torres Media and recording his own Zac Krull Sports Podcast. Currently, Zac is writing as a contributor for Aaron Torres online with weekly articles and working as a producer for the BETQL Network. Zac graduated from SUNY Cortland in 2021 with a degree in Sports Studies.