The Orioles can spend money—but what should they spend it on?

It’s officially free agency time for Major League Baseball, and if there’s any team in the league that has the ability to spend some money, it’s the Orioles. 

And given the Orioles just put in a season that saw them win 101 games with the best record in the American League, this offseason should be a different one for the Orioles, because they’ll be pivoting to filling in the holes in their roster in order to remain competitive year-to-year.

Thankfully, Mike Elias seems to feel the same way, telling Mark Feinsand of MLB.com that he wants to the Orioles to “remain competitive forever … you’re not going to win 100 games every year, but we don’t ever want to get back to losing 100 games. I don’t think there should be any reason for that.”

As it stands right now, the Orioles’ 2024 payroll is $26.5 million, which ranks dead last in all of MLB. So there’s no doubt the Orioles can spend money if they want to. But the question is, what should they spend that money on in free agency?

The most obvious and immediate answer is pitching. The Orioles’ pitching staff last year was significantly improved from years past, boasting the seventh-best team ERA and the fifth-best team FIP in all of baseball. A lot of that is thanks to the excellent play from Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez, as well as plenty of solid starts from Dean Kremer.

But the Orioles’ rotation has a hole that needs to be filled. As it stands, the Orioles starting rotation if the season started today would likely be Kyle Bradish/Grayson Rodriguez/John Means/Dean Kremer/Cole Irvin (or maybe D.L. Hall or Tyler Wells).

Obviously Bradish and Rodriguez are locks for the rotation, and I’d argue Means and Kremer likely are as well. I’d also personally say I think Tyler Wells should probably be back in the rotation, given the success we saw from him, but he’s also a solid bullpen arm.

So if there’s anywhere for the Orioles to spend money, it’s probably on a starting pitcher. Someone like an Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray, or Eduardo Rodriguez would really bolster the pitching staff well.

But outside of acquiring a starting pitcher (or two), I’m not 100% sure what else the Orioles need to spend big money on. Sure, they could spend some money on a bullpen arm or a backup or something like that, but on the offensive side of things, there aren’t too many holes that need to be filled, given the success of their Major Leaguers and the likely promotion of some top prospects.

Let’s take a look at the infield—you’ve got Ryan Mountcastle at first and then some mix of Jordan Westburg, Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, and Gunnar Henderson at second/shortstop/third base. Obviously the glaring weakness in that infield if Mateo—even if his defense and baserunning are great, his offense is a pretty nasty black hole in the lineup.

But the Orioles have a glut of middle infield prospects that could come up and fill the space of a Mateo or Urias. While I don’t think he makes the Opening Day roster, Jackson Holliday absolutely lit up the minor leagues last year and is likely headed for a similar path as Henderson, where he comes up to the majors at a pretty young age.

But even outside Holliday, there’s both Joey Ortiz and Connor Norby. Last year, Ortiz hit .321/.378/.507 in 88 games at Triple-A before getting a brief cup of coffee in the majors, while Norby hit .290/.359/.483. I think it’d be hard to argue that either of those two aren’t ready for the Major Leagues.

And honestly, even if the Orioles wanted to sign an infield free agent, there just isn’t much out there. There’s Matt Chapman and then the quality drops significantly down to names like Whit Merrifield or Justin Turner or Tim Anderson.

So let’s pivot to the outfield, where we’ve got Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, and Anthony Santander. Hays and Mullins are locks at their position—even with Mullins’ offensive struggles last year, his defense is too good to get rid of (and of course, there’s the hope that 2023 was just a down year for Mullins and that he can bounce back to something between 2021 and 2022).

Santander is a lock for the lineup, but if the Orioles elected to sign an outfielder, he could easily DH (though it is worth noting that Santander had 3 DRS last year in right field, so he’s far from a liability out there). The problem you run into with Santander at DH is what you do with Ryan O’Hearn.

O’Hearn was one of the Orioles’ best reclamation projects last year, slashing .289/.322/.480 on the year in a platoon role that saw him almost exclusively hitting against right-handers. I think it’d be hard to argue for significantly reducing his playing time, but you could do it.

So if the Orioles did want to spend money on an outfielder, who’s out there? Well, there’s Cody Bellinger, who likely is the top prize in the outfield after posting a 26 home run, 20 stolen base season last year slashing .307/.356/.525. 

There’s also Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Jorge Soler, all of whom have their drawbacks and are a notable step down from Bellinger, but still have their value.

But we run into a similar issue in the outfield as we did with the infield if the Orioles sign someone. Aside from figuring out what to do with the DH position, the Orioles again have a couple of prospects in the outfield who look ready for the majors.

Last year in Triple-A, Heston Kjerstad slashed .298/.371/.498 in 76 games, and while he struggled in his brief 13-game stint in the majors, I think it’d be hard to argue for keeping him in the minors.

Same with Colton Cowser, who hit .300/.417/.520 in 87 games at Triple-A last year before similarly struggling in 26 games at the Major League level, hitting .115/.286/.148.

But these Major League sample sizes for Kjerstad and Cowser are the smallest of small sample sizes—you can’t honestly draw any conclusions from them. 

So if you sign a big-name outfield free agent, not only do you run into a logjam at the DH position (assuming you’re moving Santander into the DH role), you’re also potentially blocking someone like Cowser or Kjerstad from coming up to the majors.

Now, it’s possible some of these potential logjams would be solved by a trade—it wouldn’t shock me if the Orioles dipped into their glut of middle infield prospects and added in a Major Leaguer like Ramon Urias or something to make a big swing for an ace pitcher—but as it stands now, there’s a lot of traffic in the Orioles’ lineup if you add a big-name free agent.

We’ll see what the Orioles ultimately elect to do this offseason. For his part, Elias has said he’d like to add one pitcher to the rotation, and later clarified the “front half” of the rotation, and one pitcher in the back end of the bullpen.

Personally, I wouldn’t expect the Orioles to do much more than that in free agency. There might be some trades that end up happening this offseason, that wouldn’t shock me at all (especially if they’re unable to sign a top starter), but as far as making big signings in free agency, there might not be more than a couple.