Overreaction or Not an Overreaction after the First Week of College Basketball

College Basketball is officially back with the 2023-2024 season returning in full swing this past week. One common issue that the sport has seen in recent years is the fact that there aren’t enough marquee games on the first few nights of the season to really draw the casual fans in. Many coaches are hesitant to play in big games early due to the fact that they don’t know exactly what their team is yet, and they don’t trust them early in games against those marquee opponents.  

With that, it is very difficult to accurately judge these teams that have played cupcake games, because you just don’t know if what you saw will translate against better opponents. Luckily, there were a select handful of games featuring multiple Power 6 teams that we can definitely draw some conclusions from. Coming out of the first game of the season, fan bases usually feel either really excited or extremely worried, especially when their team played in a top-notch game against a quality opponent. Here are a few things that you should or shouldn’t overreact to from the teams that took place in marquee games this week.  

Auburn Should Be Worried After Blowing a Late 5 Point Lead to Baylor

Tuesday Night was a very frustrating loss for Auburn in South Dakota against the #20 ranked Baylor Bears. After a very close first 8 minutes, Auburn really looked like the better team from about the midway point in the first half until the final 4 minutes of the game. Auburn found themselves with a five-point lead with four minutes and twenty-seven seconds remaining in the game following a KD Johnson jump shot. Baylor then outscored them 11-5 from that point on to secure the victory. 

Standout Freshman Ja’Kobe Walter led the way for Baylor with 28 points in his first career college game. What made this performance from Walter particularly impressive was the fact that he was creating the majority of his shots by himself off the bounce. There was nothing really Auburn could do to stop it. The Tigers standout Freshman came to play in his own right, with Aden Holloway led Auburn in scoring with 19 points. Holloway didn’t even shoot the ball particularly great from three going 4/8, but showed that he is capable of hitting numerous tough shots off the bounce as well.  

That is something Auburn did not have last year, and the Tigers Guard play should be significantly better overall with Holloway running the show. In addition, SEC Player of the Year Candidate Johni Broome didn’t even play particularly great, shooting 4/10 from the field, and still ended the game with 16 points and 11 rebounds. This Auburn team will be a problem in the SEC going forward, and has enough depth and firepower to be a Final 4 Sleeper when it’s all set and done. 

Verdict: Overreaction

This Version of Baylor Will Be Better Than Last Season’s 

One of the concerns with Baylor going into 2023-2024 was that this was a team that would be losing four of their five starters from a team that won 23 games and earned a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament one year ago. Baylor isn’t returning any of their dynamic trio of Guards in Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer and Keyontae George, who averaged a combined 45.9 points per game a season ago.  

Despite only seeing this Bears team play one game against Auburn, I’m confident that this team has the chance to be just as good, if not better. Primarily, as great as that backcourt was scoring the basketball, there wasn’t a ton of size there and that really cost them on the defensive side of the floor. That is no longer the case with a heavy load of guys on the wing being very capable of guarding the opposing team’s best player. That revamped backcourt headlined by RayJ Dennis, Jayden Nunn, Ja’Kobe Walter and Langston Love provides this Baylor team with plenty of balance and size that should translate to victories this season.  

The other concern I had with Baylor was who would fill the void in the middle with the loss of Flo Thamba and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatoua, still not 100% after recovering from a major knee injury. Enter Freshman Yves Missi, who is a product of the NBA Global Academy, who was absolutely pivotal to the Bears in their victory over Auburn. The Freshman provided the Bears with 10 points in 18 minutes, including the dunk to put them in control for good which ultimately led to the victory.  

Between two Freshman leading the way in their first career games, and veteran Jalen Bridges continuing to do his thing shooting the basketball, this was a great way to start the season for the Bears. This Baylor team seems way more complete compared to a season ago, and their fans should be very excited about their team coming out of opening night. 

Verdict: Not an Overreaction

USC and Their Guards Are Built for the NCAA Tournament 

There aren’t many programs in College Basketball that have been more underrated over the course of the last half decade than Andy Enfield and USC. The Trojans have won a combined 95 games in the last four seasons, to average 23.75 wins per season during that span. USC made it to the Elite 8 in 2021, but unfortunately caught some tough breaks in the big dance in each of the last two seasons, getting knocked out in the opening round.  

I do not expect that to be the case this season thanks to the backcourt trio of Bogie Ellis, Isaiah Collier and Kobe Johnson and they showed us why on Monday Night. Ellis, the Preseason Pac-12 Player of the Year, decided to return for his fifth and final season of College Basketball, after averaging 17.7 points per game a season ago. Ellis has scored over 1500 points in his career, playing in 126 career games and will be a very valuable piece to this USC team in the Month of March. This USC Freshman class entered the season with a ton of hype in large part to Bronny James, and having a name that is big involved in the sport of College Basketball.  

The other big name in the class was consensus top five recruit, Isaiah Collier, who lived up to the hype in a big way against Kansas State on Monday. In his first career game Collier scored 18 points with 6 assists in 25 minutes of action, to help lead USC to a dominant 82-69 victory.  It was extremely noticeable from the beginning just how poised Collier was, and just how much he was able to control the game. This is extremely rare for a true Freshman put into that big of a role.  

Having these two Guards that are that dynamic alongside the perfect glue guy in Kobe Johnson is a perfect fit. Johnson is an experienced player in his own right, and one of the best on ball defenders in the country. Building your team around three Guards this good, bodes very well for USC’s long-term upside and the Trojans statement on Monday should be taken seriously by everyone following this sport.  

Verdict: Not an Overreaction

Kansas State Shouldn’t Be Worried After Their Loss Shorthanded vs USC

There weren’t many programs that came out of last season with more positive momentum than Jerome Tang’s Wildcats, after Kansas State made it all the way to the Elite 8 last season. This was when they entered last season as somewhat of an afterthought and were voted to finish last in the preseason poll. Despite the losses of top two leading scorers in Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell to the NBA, there was plenty of reason for Wildcats fans to be very excited about their team entering 2023-2024. Kansas State added a handful of marquee players from the Transfer Portal in Arthur Kaluma from Creighton, Tylor Perry from North Texas, and Ques Glover from Samford. This is to go along with starters Nae’qwan Tomlin and Cam Carter, who returned to school for another go around.  

Just when the season was ready to start, Kansas State suspended Tomlin indefinitely, for not living up to the expectations Tang requires from his players. Kansas State’s Head Coach said that “If he comes back, it’s an added bonus.” This is very disappointing for Kansas State to lose their top returning player, rim protector and a guy who was supposed to be one of their leaders, right before the start of the season. It was extremely noticeable on Monday Night that USC had significantly more continuity and better chemistry than Kansas State, and the Wildcats looked like a team that had never played with each other before. 

Kaluma struggled mightily in his first game in a Wildcats uniform, shooting 1/11 from the field. The Wildcats as a team shot a dreadful 22/71 from the field and 8/33 from downtown. Considering we still have zero timetable for Tomlin’s return, Kansas State has plenty of reason for concern. This was never going to be the deepest team in the world, and not having each of your top three players from last season’s Elite 8 team is a massive hole. 

In addition, Glover is out six to eight weeks with a knee injury, which doesn’t help matters at all. Kansas State doesn’t have some guys right now that were expected to be major factors, and they could be in some serious trouble if they don’t come back quickly.  

Verdict: Overreaction

We Overrated Michigan State In The Preseason

We’re all still trying to find a solution to the problem of not having enough marquee College Basketball games at the start of the season. That was undoubtedly the case this past Monday, however the basketball gods did at least give us an all-time upset. Number four ranked Michigan State, fell to James Madison in Overtime on Monday Night, becoming the first AP Top 5 ranked team to lose their home opener to an unranked team since Kentucky against Western Kentucky in 2001. In addition, this was Sparty’s first home loss in November since 1986. Michigan State shot the ball in horrific fashion going 1/20 from downtown.  

Although it is a small sample size, this is somewhat puzzling considering the fact that Michigan State was one of the better three-point shooting teams in all of College Basketball a season ago. The only significant contributor from last season’s team that didn’t return this season was Joey Hauser, which could be a way bigger loss than most realized. Star Guard Tyson Walker came to play for the Spartans, leading the way with 35 points, however he shot the ball 26 times to get there. The next highest leading scorer for the Spartans was Freshman Coen Carr, playing in his first career college game.  

Michigan State’s other returning players AJ Hoggard, Jaden Akins and Malik Hall shot a combined 6/33 from the field. Although the ceiling for this Michigan State team could be raised by a very good recruiting class getting better throughout the course of the season, Tom Izzo’s team isn’t going to win much with those three returners playing that poorly.  

Many people thought entering this season that at 68 years old, this would be Tom Izzo’s best chance at winning a second National Title, before saying goodbye. It is also important to note that James Madison was picked to win the Sun Belt in the preseason and won 22 games a season ago. While I still think this Michigan State team will be fine long term, losing this game on opening night isn’t the best look. The bottom line is Hoggard, Akins and Hall need to play better and I think they will.  

Verdict: Overreaction