College Football 2023 – Championship Weekend

It all comes down to this….Championship Weekend. The Playoff scenarios seem mostly cut-and-dry at the moment, but there is one result that could open the door for chaos. So let’s dive right in with the Championship Weekend matchups. I’ll start with the games that don’t have CFP implications, which is pretty much the G5.

 

Friday

CUSA – New Mexico State at Liberty (7pm ET, CBSSN, Line: Liberty -10)

A couple interesting storylines in this game. First, the Flames are ranked #25 in the CFP, currently the second-highest ranked G5 team, two spots behind Tulane. If the Green Wave were to lose in the AAC Championship Game, a Liberty win could give them the coveted New Year’s Six bowl slot, and a lot of money for themselves and CUSA to divvy out.

Also, both head coaches have had their names mentioned in the coaching carousel. Aggies head coach Jerry Kill has done nothing short of a remarkable job in Las Cruces, winning 10 games this season (including a very convincing win at Auburn), just two seasons after NMSU went 2-10. Kill was previously successful in a stint at Minnesota, but resigned for health reasons. Meanwhile Jamie Chadwell, in his first season at Liberty after a successful run at Coastal Carolina, could be in line for a power conference job very soon, if not this offseason.

Saturday

MAC – Miami, OH vs Toledo, at Detroit (Noon ET, ESPN, Line: Toledo -7.5)

Toledo will try to make it back-to-back MAC titles. Head coach Jason Candle has had quite a run of success with the Rockets. His name gets mentioned for power conference jobs, but no one has bit yet. At 44 years old, he’s reaching what is typically a coach’s prime, so I would think if it happens it will happen soon. While he’s never held any position on a power conference staff, guys like Chris Klieman and Lance Leipold should offer proof it’s not a “must have.”

MWC – Boise State at Nevada – Las Vegas (3pm ET, FOX, Line: Boise State -2.0)

It’s pretty remarkable that the Broncos are even here after starting 4-5 with HC Andy Avalos getting fired, but a strong finish and no clear top team in the conference opened the door, and they pushed through. UNLV has had a remarkable turnaround under Barry Odom, and will play in only their second bowl game of the century. Thoughts go out to the workers at Allegiant Stadium, who will have about 14 hours to get the facility ready for this game after it hosts the Pac-12 Championship Game.

AAC – SMU at Tulane (4pm ET, ABC, Line: Tulane -3.5)

With a win Tulane should clinch the G5 New Year’s Bowl bid for a second straight season. On the other side, this will be SMU’s final game as a G5 before joining the ACC next season. If the Mustangs win, could they jump ahead of Liberty to claim the NY6 bowl. They haven’t been ranked yet, so we don’t know how close to the Top 25 the selection committee views them. Considering Liberty plays a 10-win New Mexico State team still somewhat fresh off a convincing win at Auburn, I don’t think SMU would leapfrog the Flames if they win. But if Liberty loses then I would wager SMU is the next team in line.

Sun Belt – Appalachian State at Troy (4pm ET, ESPN, Line: Troy -6.5)

It should have been James Madison playing Troy for the Sun Belt title, but….NCAA. Still, the Sun Belt plays a fun brand of football, so this could be a nice matchup.

 

Ok, now for the Power Five….with picks!

 

Friday

Pac-12 – Oregon vs Washington at Las Vegas (8pm ET, ABC, Line: Oregon -9.5)

The last ever Pac-12 football game (sigh). At least the conference should go out with a bang and not a whimper like it has for seemingly umpteen years now. It feels like the winner of this game should clinch a CFP berth. Certainly there is no scenario where Washington wins and falls out of the Top 4. Is there a scenario where Oregon wins and doesn’t move up? I think it’s unlikely, but not 100% out of the question.

As for who will win, I like the Ducks to get their revenge for the narrow October loss. They are steamrolling their opponents lately, while at times Washington has been squeaking by the same teams. 9.5 points feels a little wide for my liking though. I hope the Pac-12’s swan song is a little closer, if not an outright nail-biter.

Pick: Washington +9.5, Oregon S/U

Saturday

Big 12 – Oklahoma State vs Texas at Arlington (Noon ET, ABC, Line: Texas -14.5)

Texas seems like they are in a difficult, and unfortunate spot as far as climbing into the Top 4. They didn’t draw an ideal opponent in #18 Oklahoma State if they wanted to get a resume-enhancing win. And the committee has already told us that win at Alabama isn’t enough to put them ahead of Ohio State or Oregon. It sounds like the Longhorns’ path to the playoff consists of: Georgia beating Alabama, Washington beating Oregon, Louisville beating Florida State, and them beating Oklahoma State convincingly enough they jump ahead of an idle Ohio State.

I certainly think Texas can handle the “win convincingly” part. Oklahoma State has been a schizophrenic team this season. They have some respectable wins, but losing by 26 to South Alabama and by 42 to UCF….not good. Texas clearly has the talent edge here, and I think they make good on that.

Pick: Texas -14.5

SEC – Alabama vs Georgia at Atlanta (4pm ET, CBS, Line: Georgia -6)

This is the most pivotal game of the weekend as far as how the playoff field will shape up. If Georgia wins, the other outcomes should fall in line in a way that makes the committee’s life relatively easy. We can rest assured a Georgia victory is what they are, very quietly, rooting for.

If Alabama pulls the upset….we got chaos. Does Georgia drop out of the Top 4 if they lose by, say, double-digits? What if it’s much closer? Is Alabama guaranteed to move into the Top 4? It’s very hard to imagine a 1-loss SEC Champ that just knocked off the #1 team doesn’t get in. If you move Alabama up, does Texas (assuming they win) move up with them? The committee has been very consistent thus far about keeping the Longhorns just ahead of the Tide based on the head-to-head Week 2 win. What if Michigan, Washington and Florida State all win as well? Could that mean at least one, and maybe even two unbeaten Power 5 teams don’t make the playoff? Or could we possibly see the unthinkable….zero playoff teams from the conference where it just means more?

If there is one thing I’m certain of, it is that Nick Saban is absolutely loving how this has all set up. If barely escaping Auburn with their playoff hope intact wasn’t enough to ensure his team remained focused on the small tasks and details Saban loves to obsess over, then I would think being a 6-point underdog to the team that has knocked them somewhat off their perch ought to. Remarkably, since 2010 this is only the fourth time Alabama has been an underdog. Interestingly, all four of those games have been against Georgia. Saban is 2-1 thus far; the first a convincing Tide win in a regular season matchup in 2015, the other two coming in 2021-22 – first the SEC Championship game where the Tide got the win they needed just to get in the playoff, then dropping the rematch in the National Championship game.

Part of me would like a more orderly playoff selection process, while part of me would love to see some chaos in the final season of the 4-team format. So not sure who I’ll root for. My head says the rankings are accurate and Georgia is unquestionably the better team. My gut says they are closer than that, and that this is the kind of game where Alabama always seems to remind the world that they are still Alabama. I’ll go with my head on this one, though not with great confidence.

Pick: Georgia -6

Big Ten – Iowa vs Michigan at Indianapolis (8pm ET, FOX, Line: Michigan -23)

While I am sad Championship Weekend will be the end of Pac-12 football, there is one thing I am elated to see meet its demise this weekend, and that’s East-West Divisions in the Big Ten, and the bad (sometimes horrific) title game matchups that format has inflicted upon us. Good riddance.

I would not be shocked if Iowa, with their defense and ability to control field position (their punter is kinda amazing), can keep this closer than expected for about a half. I’ll say this….with the Hawkeye’s offense (if you want to call it that), as soon as Michigan gets a double-digit lead this one is over. I don’t see how Iowa can keep this a one-possession game for more that 30 minutes; and when it starts raining Michigan points, it will pour.

Pick: Michigan -23

ACC – Louisville vs Florida State at Charlotte (8pm ET, ABC, Line: FSU -2.5)

If the playoff selection committee’s #1 wish is for Georgia to beat Alabama and avoid having to make some uncomfortable decisions, then a close #2 would have to be Louisville knocking off Florida State. That way they wouldn’t have to essentially lie to us (again) about the criteria for their rankings. For 10 seasons we have been repeatedly told the committee seeds the playoff based on who the *best* four teams are and not who the *most deserving* four teams may be. Sorry, but that’s load of bull****. If it was really the four best teams each year, then we would have seen at least one, and likely multiple 2-loss teams get in over 1-loss teams or even an unbeaten team (like Cincinnati in ’21). I’m good with putting the most-deserving teams in, but please, let’s tell it like it is. Ok?

Which brings us to the Seminoles. We know that right now, with QB Jordan Travis out, they are not one of the four best teams in the country. Last week the committee said so when they dropped them from #4 to #5 in favor of Washington. Then Ohio State lost to Michigan, and the Seminoles moved right back up. And I am thoroughly convinced as long as they beat Louisville, at #4 they will stay. The CFP was ostensibly created in large part to ensure unbeaten Power 5 teams always played for the title. Again, I’m okay with that, even with no Travis, since FSU still had to win three games (if we count Saturday) without him to pull it off. But if you asked the oddsmakers, I guarantee that FSU would be a decided underdog against every single other team in the Top 8, and maybe even one or two below that. Heck, they are only a 2.5-point favorite over #14 Louisville.

I tend to agree with Vegas, this one is practically a toss-up. Louisville had a bad loss at home to Kentucky Saturday. Yes, it was a rivalry game, and anything can happen in rivalry games (just ask Alabama, FSU, Washington, and even Georgia to a degree). Still, with a long shot chance at the playoff still seemingly there, they couldn’t close the deal against an unranked team. Meanwhile, the Seminoles did just that, on the road, against a Florida team that was clearly motivated and wanting to at least make a bowl game. The Gators helped them out quite a bit….they don’t look like a well-coached team to me….but FSU still has plenty of talent at other positions and thus I’d probably give them a puncher’s chance against almost anyone.

Pick: Florida State -2.5

 

If we had the 12-team playoff this season

So let’s pretend this is in effect now. What scenarios would we be having a big debate over? As far as who the 12 teams would be, not a whole lot, I think. Just two Power 5 teams playing this weekend are not already on the bracket: #14 Louisville and #16 Iowa. If both of them win they would likely knock Penn State and Ole Miss out. As I mentioned above, if Tulane loses to SMU, then Liberty likely slots in as the 12th seed. If Tulane and Liberty both lose, I have a feeling it would be the Mustangs. The first team currently out as far as the at-large options is #12 Oklahoma. I’m sure folks in Norman would point to their win over #7 Texas as reason to get in over Ole Miss, whose best win was over #13 LSU. I doubt the rest of the college football world will muster a lot of outrage over it.

I think the biggest debates we’ll end up having is over seeding. We know that the Top 4 conference champions will all receive a 1st Round bye. That will be highly coveted and should add some juice to championship weekend. Same goes for 5-8 seeds, who will get to host a 1st Round game on or near campus. That’s also where I think you’d fix the FSU debate….the Seminoles, if they win, would probably be the 5th-best conference champion, which means they’re still in the mix but not Top 4, so you can put them where you feel they truly belong without leaving them out. I’ll be interested to see if the committee decides to avoid 1st Round rematches, or even intra-conference matchups. Alabama vs Missouri sounds spicy, though I don’t imagine the SEC would be happy with that one.

So that’s that. Really looking forward to the games this weekend and talking next week about how this all shook out. Don’t forget, the final CFP rankings will be released on Sunday night rather than the usual Tuesday release.