English Premier League 2023-2024 Mid Season Update

Imagine that. Another trophy for Manchester City. Ho hum. Seems that’s all they do…..lol.

The EPL is at its mid season winter break (play resumes January 13th) with all teams having played 19 or 20 of the season long 38 matches. Plenty enough matches to give us a solid idea of how good, or not, a team is this year. Certainly teams can and do turn things around the second half and there is the month long transfer window ongoing which can bolster teams chances. Before we get into a team by team update lets take a quick look at some of the highlights from the season so far.

1. Liverpool’s Mo Salah is tied for the league lead in goals (14) and assists (8). Salah has an outside shot to earn the record to total goal contributions in a season currently held by Alan Shearer (1993-94 Blackburn Rovers) and Andy Cole (1993-94 Newcastle United). Salah also joints the list of those with 150 EPL goals in 247 matches (Alan Shearer is first having done so in only 212 matches).
2. Erling Haaland (Manchester City) became the fastest player in EPL history to record 50 goals doing so in just 48 matches. The previous record was Andy Cole’s 65.
3. Liverpool’s Alisson Becker is tied for the lead in clean sheets with 6 (with Andre Onana – Manchester United and Jordan Pickford – Everton) and overall Liverpool leads the league in goals allowed at just 18 in 20 matches. When you allow an average of less than a goal/match you tend to win. A lot.
4. The transfer window opened this past Monday and runs till February 1st. This far 18 moves have been made but all but one of those have been either loans or loan recalls. The only transfer has been Tottehnahm transferring keeper Hugo Lloris to LAFC in the MLS. Lots of rumors flying around and surely some big things will happen over the next several weeks.

With that lets take a look at each side and how things have gone for them and their fans. The predictions were those listed in the preseason preview article last summer.

Arsenal

Prediction – 2nd but if Man C stumbles then look out

Current Standings – 4th (5 points off the lead)

Goal Differential – Plus 17

Arsenal started the season quite strong going 7-3-0 (W-D-L) not losing until a 1-0 loss at Newcastle on November 4th. But of late they have not been playing well at all having gone 1-1-3 in their last 5 matches. The defense has been fine although they can’t seem to figure out who should be their keeper as both Aaron Ramsdale and David Raya have been given starts. The problem has been at the other end of the field as they have only scored 4 times in the last 5. That’s not cutting it but with a lineup that includes Bukaya Saka, Eddie Nketiah, Gabrel Jesus, Kai Havertz, and Martin Odegaard one would think their offense will start rolling.

Aston Villa

Prediction – 9th

Current Standings – 2nd a mere 3 points off the lead

Goal Differential – Plus16

AV seems to be a team that is doing things the right way. A management team that will spend on the right pieces but not one to just throw money at the wall to see if it sticks. Clearly they have been the surprise of the season as nobody had them aa a top tier team. But here we are and they come in to the break on a roll having gone 3-1-1 with their only defeat being on the road 3-2 to Manchester United. They have a fairly easy schedule over the next 6 weeks but their April  and May stretch will really a tough stretch. Interesting to see in the Villans can finish top 4 for their first Champions League spot ever!

Bournemouth

Prediction – 18th

Current Standings – 12th

Goal Differential – Minus 7

Here’s a team clearly punching above their weight. And what a run they have been on going to the break. In their last 5 they are 4-0-1 with their only loss away at Tottenham. In this stretch they have beaten Crystal Palace, Man U, Nottingham Forest, and Fulham by as combined score of 11-2. They need to continue to play better defense while keeping the scoring pace they have the last several weeks. Can they do so the rest of the way? Time will tell but what a holiday season present for Cherries fans!

Brentford

Prediction – 11th

Current Standings – 16th

Goal Differential – Minus 5

In the preseason look the concern was expressed that missing  striker Ivan Toney ( 20 goals in 33 matches last season) was going to hurt the team and the hope was that they not fall out the bottom until Toney returns. Unfortunately that is exactly what has happened and their last several weeks have been abysmal going 0-0-5 and losing by a combined 12-4. They are in a free fall right now so perhaps the break comes at a good time for the Bees. They need to be careful as they have been inching downward toward the relegation zone.

Brighton and Hove Albion

Prediction – 7th

Current Standings – 7th

Goal Differential – Plus 5

Here’s what we said back  last summer: “:They have a stated business model and they stick to it. Sell high and use the next man up mentality. And its hard to argue with their success the last several years. Its a solid model that keeps the club in good financial shape and allows them to continue to have fewer clubs ahead of them than behind them. And this season is probably more the same.” And so far that’s exactly how their season has played out . They are a solid side. They beat Tottenham and drew West Ham right before the break. But they probably don’t have quite the talent and especially depth to make a move higher up the table. But it would be nice to see the Seagulls finish 6th and get a Europa League spot.

Burnley

Prediction – 16th

Current Standings – 19th

Goal Differential –  Minus 21

The Clarets are back in the EPL after just a single season down in the English Championship. And as predicted they will likely be fighting relegation all season. Unfortunately that’s where they sit and with the 2nd worst goal differential in the league its hard to see them digging out of the hole they are in. They are currently 5 points behind the relegation line. About the best their fans can hope for is to find a few extra goals, a few extra save, and hope like hell some team above them falter.

Chelsea

Prediction – 5th

Current Standings – 10th

Goal Differential – Plus 3

Sometime Chelsea ownership is going to realize that they aren’t good enough to just toss some more money at the problem willy nilly and things will automatically change. I like the move they made bringing in Pochettino to coach but I think the needs some more time to get the club elevating their play. On paper they have the talent to be a top 5 or 6 club but they don’t play well enough collectively. As has been their issue the last several years they play below the sum of their parts. At least Christian Pulisic got the heck out of there and we don’t have to listen to Blues fans blaming all their woes on “that horrible American.”

Crystal Palace

Prediction – 10th

Current Standings – 14th

Goal Differential – Minus 7

CP has a very solid defense especially with two strong central defenders. Which is bad news for fans of the USMNT as Chris Richards also plays center back. But of late CP has moved Richards into a starting role as the 6 or defensive midfield position. And that is very good news for fans of the USMNT. Not only is he getting minutes now but learning to play a position that does not have a ton of quality depth for the US. Certainly he’s not likely to supplant Tyler Adams as the starter at the #6 for the US but given Adams’ injury history a quality backup would be terrific. But EPL wise the problem at Selhurst Park Stadium has been at the other end of the field. They have scored the 3rd fewest goals in the league. Its hard to imagine them moving up the table much unless they find some offensive help during this transfer window. On the flip side though, they should have plenty enough defensively to keep from having relegation worries. Still a bit of a disappointment overall thus far.

Everton

Prediction – 17th

Current Standings – 17th

Goal Differential – Minus 4

Everton secured safety from relegation on the last day of the season. Unfortunately for The Toffees fans this year seems destined to be all too familiar for fans at Goodison Park. Heading to the break the lost 3 straight (Tottenham, Man City, and Wolverhampton) by a combined 8-2. They currently sit but a single point above Luton Town at the relegation line but Luton Town has a game in hand. Unfortunately for Toffee fans they are going to be having stress issues the rest of the season. Come the end they are going to be worried sick about dropping down and don’t be surprised if its just like last year and comes down to the final day of the season. Now there is a bit more to the Everton story though. They sit down where they are because they were docked 10 points by the English Football Association for breaching financial sustainability rules. That has been appealed and it remains to be seen how that affects their standing and actual play. Maybe there is light at the end of the season for them?

Fulham 

Prediction – 13th

Current Standings – 13th

Goal Differential – Minus 7

One of the fun teams to watch for fans of the USMNT as their back line features two mainstays for the US. Center back Tim Ream, and the Fulham Captain, has been chugging along at 36 and has just signed an extension through next year. Not bad for the veteran. But you have to wonder when age (not if but when) will catch up to him. Playing next to him is Antonee Robinson who is having a terrific year at left back and is being evaluated by several high end teams not the least of which is Liverpool. Robinson is going to get a big pay day its just a matter of when. This transfer window or this summer. With a current market value around $20M somebody will pony up some cash to pry him away from Fulham. The issue may be that Fulham has him under contract till 2028 so won’t let him go cheaply. As far as the rest of the season goes they should be safe from any relegation concerns but also well below any top half of the table finish.

Liverpool

Prediction – 4th

Current Standings – 1st

Goal Differential – Plus 25

Barring any crazy injuries the rest of the way its hard to imagine The Reds not finishing top 4 and nobody should be surprised if they win it all. Lead the league in goals allowed and differential. They score and don’t let their opponents. That means you win. And in fact they have only lost once all season. And since they are in the knockout stage of the Europa League and not Champions League they will have a bit easier overall schedule the rest of the way than both Man C and Arsenal. Reds fans are pretty excited for things at Anfield the next 4 months.

Luton Town

Prediction – 20th

Current Standings – 18th

Goal Differential – Minus 14

No team has benefitted more from the 10 point docking handed to Everton that Luton Town. In fact with a game in hand, they can actually surpass Everton in the standings after their next match. Its easy to see where they lack the overall quality of most EPL teams. They just don’t have enough talent in the back to handle a good EPL attack. They themselves can attack well enough. Its easier for a middling attacker to beat a good defender. But a middling defender, which is what Luton Town has just get eaten up by a quality attack. Hard to see them staying up but they also have played some pretty competitive matches and have no reason to hang their heads.

Manchester City

Prediction – 1st

Current Standings – 3rd

Goal Differential – Plus 24

Ok Citizen fans not to worry. Man C scores too many goals to finish outside the top 4. Can they win it again this season? Absolutely. They are only 5 points behind Liverpool but they have a game in hand. The issue as always for team in the Champions League is how to balance league play with UCL matches. During the group stage Man C got a very favorable draw and waltz through going undefeated.  Then they got another favorable draw for their Round of 16 drawing Copenhagen. So while they still have to field a team and Copenhagen isn’t a pushover they should be able to balance advancing in UCL while still shooting for the EPL title. Still its is more games they have to play and the more games they play the more risk of bad things happening. Still at the end of the season don’t be surprised if Man C hosts the EPL and UCL trophies. Oh yeah and don’t forget the FA Cup. Another treble? Man C is looking to join only Bayern Munich and Barcelona as the two teams to have won a treble. But no team has EVER won a treble back to back. Manager Pep Guardiola would love to be the first. Oh, and they just won the FIFA Club World Cup becoming the first EPL team to hold the EPL title, FA Cup, UCL, UEFA Super Cup and the FIFA Club World Cup at the same time.

Manchester United

Prediction – 4th

Current Standings – 8th

Goal Differential – Minus 5

As a long time Red Devil fan its hard to be anything but unhappy at the way things are unfolding at Old Trafford. They have the highest overall payroll in the EPL. They have a top notch manager in Erik ten Hag. They have a roster filled with quality and depth. But they lost 21 matches during CY 2023 the 4th worst in their 146 years. Yes they won the Carabao Cup last season to go along with a 3rd place finish in the EPL. But they bombed out in group play in UCL finishing last in Group A behind two much weaker programs in Copenhagen (Netherlands) and Galatasaray (Greece). Coupled with their current 8th place in the EPL and fans are disgruntled. Ownership is disgruntled. And the media wonders how much longer ten Hag will be the manager. To say he’s on the hot seat would be an understatement. If they don’t get results in their next two matches after the break (Tottenham and Wolverhampton) I suspect he’ll get the axe.

Newcastle United

Prediction – 6th

Current Standings – 9th

Goal Differential – Plus 10

Its been a weird season thus far for Newcastle. Strictly going by differential they should sit around 6th but here they are down in 9th. And they come into the break on a free fall going 1-0-4 in their last 5 with a combined score of 12-7. And in that run was a loss to lowly Luton Town. They need to get back to their winning ways and quickly. What was projected as a season where they should qualify for the Europa League is on the cusp of falling to the lower half of the table. Certainly they are no relegation concerns but they are not meeting expectations. They need the midfield to step up and offer a bit more danger in the attack. Look for Miguel Almiron to produce big chances the second half. He tallied 11 goals for them last season. His 3 to date this season are well off that pace.

Nottingham Forest

Prediction – 14th

Current Standings – 15th

Goal Differential – Minus 11

Another team fun (well sort of) for US fans to watch. Goalkeeper Matt Turner got away from sitting on the bench at Arsenal to a starting role with Forest. But then had some awful gaffes (the English don’t put up with those no matter the great saves) and landed back on the bench. In came Odysseas Vlachodimos and US fans were once again afraid Turner was going to rust away. But Vlachodimos had a couple of his own gaffes and was sat back down. But Turner hasn’t been stellar since returning. Seems to have reverted back to his MLS form. Some great shot stopping ability but fan cringing when he has the ball at his feet. And the game now demands a keeper be at least decent with the ball on the ground and this season Turner hasn’t cut it. The last match against Man U was vintage Turner. In the 78th minute Turner parlayed a back pass forward right up the center of the pitch to Alejandro Garnacho who slotted a pass to Marcus Rashford whose shot gave Turner no chance. Forest was to go back ahead in the 82nd minute. The rest of the way Turner came up big twice to seal the W.  Conceeding 1.75 goals/match isn’t a formula for success. They could use some defensive help this transfer window.

Sheffield United

Projection – 19th

Current Standings – 20th

Goal Differential – Minus 34

Reasons to watch the Sheffies: Aaron Trusty USMNT back

Reasons not to watch the Sheffies: Worst team in the EPL and its not particularly close. They have amassed a whopping 9 points in their first 20 matches all while allowing a mind boggling 49 goals. Really at this point the only good news is that they likely won’t set the record for fewest points in a season. The 2007-2008 Derby County record of 11 points is probably safe.

Tottenham Hotspur

Prediction – 8th

Current Standings – 5th

Goal Differential – Plus 13

The Spurs finally realized that holding on to goal scoring machine Harry Kane was not doing them any favors. The needed to move him and turn the assets returned into building the team for the future. They did move him in August to Bayern Munich for no small amount of $103M. Now Kane has only thrived at Bayern scoring 21 goals in his first 15 matches. Hard to figure how they’d replace that production. But they have scored 42 goals so far just 3 behind league leaders Man City! As expected forward Son Heung-Min is leading the charge with 12. What has been unexpected is that they have gotten goals from 12 other players. Perhaps not having Kane has forced them to move the ball a bit more without such focus on finding Harry. But whatever the reason what they are doing is working and working great as of last going into the break 4-0-1. They have a legit shot at a top 4 finish.

West Ham United

Prediction – 12th

Current Standings – 6th

Goal Differential – Plus 3

The Hammers have moved on without super midfielder Declan Rice (summer transfer to Arsenal) and really didn’t do anything to replace his quality. And most fans figured they were due to drop a bit in the table this season,. Well that just hasn’t happened. They waltz through their Europa League group finishing an easy first and are headed to the knockout rounds. In league play they have been solid and even spectacular at times. And they have rarely had a really poor match. They should be in the hunt for a top 6 finish the rest of the way. The key for them is in the middle of the field. Lucas Paqueta and James Ward-Prowse have combined for 14 big chances. If they stay fit and in form they create all kinds of problems for opposing defenses.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Prediction – 15th

Current Standings – 11th

Goal Differential – Minus 1

The Wolves came in to the start of the season in free fall. They had moved on from 25 players on last seasons roster. Fired their manager right before the season. And ownership said there wasn’t any money to go out and bring in much help. But that have a guy from South Korea by the name of Hwang Hee-Chan. Hwang has been with them since for the last 2 full season. In those 2 seasons he scored 8 total goals. But out of nowhere he has 10 already this season. They have found a little bit of unexplained magic in Molineux Stadium. Who knows if they can keep it up but Wolves fans are feeling pretty safe from a season where relegation was in question.

Its been an interesting season thus far. Some surprises. A bunch of teams playing just as expected. And it looks again like Man City and Liverpool are the class of the league with Aston Villa, Arsenal, and Tottenham all knocking on the door. Pay close attention over the next several weeks to see just which teams make the splash moves. League play resumes on Saturday, January 13th and matches will continue to be shown on NBC/Peacock.