The Baltimore Orioles have started 5-4 this ’24 season, with the offense struggling out of the gate.
Offensively, the Norfolk Tides look like International League’s version of the 1927 Yankees – and probably a better lineup than the ’24 Oakland A’s.
This juxtaposition of the O’s underachieving early on, while the Tides are murdering their AAA counterparts has reignited the conversations among Orioles fans of when these prospects should be arriving in Baltimore.
With respect to the commentary of Jackson Holliday needing to go back to AAA to work on facing lefties; he’s currently wearing a Tides uniform because the Orioles Front Office valued him being under O’s control in 2030 more than having him available for a couple of weeks to begin ’24.
He will be up soon, and since the O’s are committed to playing Henderson regularly at SS – Holliday will be taking over 2nd.
That will have Jordan Westburg taking over 3rd.
Westburg (who I like), probably has to produce immediately and consistently to hold off Coby Mayo.
If Westburg is producing offensively, and looks good at 3rd; than Mayo’s future in my opinion becomes him rotating between 1st, DH, and RF (taking advantage of his arm).
You aren’t going to play Mayo in LF at OPACY.
Of course, if Mayo is up in the Majors this year getting time at 1st, DH, RF – that means something for at-least one of Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, and Anthony Santander.
O’Hearn is the easiest piece to pull out there.
He was very important last year, but I think it’s totally to be determined if he can replicate that performance.
Mountcatle is never going to have great obp skills, but the barrell and exit velos are excellent.
Santander has done enough the last two years, that when combined with his switch hitting ability, it means he has a place with this team.
That said, their respective contracts have to be considered as well.
Mountcastle is not a Free Agent until after ’26.
O’Hearn is a Free Agent after ’24.
Santander is also a Free Agent after ’24.
You also have to factor into the equation how many ab’s Adley Rutschman is going to get at DH.
Part of the reason the O’s offense is collectively down right now, is because Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins are a combined 6 for their first 54.
At some point those two will wake up and add to the lineup.
Even if Mullins doesn’t hit better than he has the last two seasons (a .721 OPS each year); CF figures to remain his for the foreseeable future, because his defensive range remains excellent.
I said last Fall that I expected Hays to be traded, and I said before Opening Day I was surprised he wasn’t.
He’s looked horrible in his 2 of 26 start to begin the year, but it’s 26 ab’s.
He’ll get going, and some point he will be scorching hot and the numbers will average out.
But after that eventual hot spell, I think Hays will be traded, and Colton Cowser will take over as the starter in LF.
Maybe I’ll be wrong again?
Heston Kjerstad has 25 rbi (and 10 extra base hits) in his initial 39 ab’s, so it’s been a unbelievably hot start for him.
Easy to root for Kjerstad and be excited for him, after the Myocarditis issues he dealt with after being the 2nd overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft.
His time is coming, but it might not come before ’25.
As with Mayo, he could wind-up getting regular time at 1st, DH, and RF.
If that happens (and Westburg is holding down 3rd) than two out of three of Mountcastle, O’Hearn, and Santander will have to have moved on.
Summation:
My current expectation is that I think we see Hays and O’Hearn removed by midyear, with Cowser starting in LF, and Mayo up and getting regular time.
At some point (maybe after ’24) Mountcastle is also moved, and Kjerstad is up, splitting 1st and DH with Mayo.
I think they’ll let Santander play out this ’24 season in an O’s uniform, and that there is some potential they reach an extension.
When the Orioles go looking for a high-leverage reliever later this Summer, Connor Norby, and Kyle Stowers can be pieces in the overall trade package.
Norby would be a bit light to headline any significant trade, and many teams will just look at Stowers as AAAA trade-filler, but there are plenty of teams they could both help and they can add depth to any trade package the O’s put together.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.