Impact Of Losing Means and Wells To Surgery

Yesterday it was announced that both John Means and Tyler Wells would have season ending elbow surgeries.

After that news came out, the Orioles beat Tampa Bay to improve to 36-19 on the year.

In this ’24 season, Means and Wells combined to make 7 starts, and pitch a total of 36 innings.

With that very minimal contribution, some will be dismissive of the impact of losing these two for the year.

My primary take is that what the O’s are losing here is margin for error.

Without them, the existing rotation is Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, and Cole Irvin.
You can also include Albert Suarez as a floater.

That group is fine.
You feel great about the first three starters, and Kremer / Irvin stacks up just fine with other 4th and 5th starters throughout the game.

Unfortunately it’s not hard to envision additional injuries happening.
Or in the cases of Kremer / Irvin; them possibly having to be replaced at some point due to non-performance.

Means and Wells were safety nets.
A healthy Means you could picturing starting a playoff game and feeling good about it.
The last couple of years, Wells showed he could be an effective starter for at-least several months before tiring out.
Had he stayed healthy, and the rotation been set-in front of him; Wells could have provided a lift to the bullpen at some point.

There is lots of conjecture amongst O’s fans, and the Media that the O’s will have to target starting pitching.
CBS Sports has already identified 10 possible options for the O’s to pursue.

I think that (believing the O’s will have to add a starter) is a reasonable take.
What remains to be seen is what caliber of starter would need to be obtained?
If the O’s were to lose one of Burnes, Bradish, or Rodriguez to a serious injury; it’s self-explanatory that would both be deflating and seriously diminish the O’s chances of winning multiple playoff rounds.
Had you lost one of them, and still had a healthy Means; you’d still feel like you have a punchers chance or better.

So in that sense, if I was O’s GM Mike Elias, I think the goal would be to obtain a starter equal or better than a healthy Means.
You can throw in all the usual caveats:

• Just cause you identify a target, doesn’t mean you’ll match-up trade wise.
• Other teams can always get involved.
• There are limits on how much you can reasonably spend in player capital for X  (how much ceiling and team control does the pitcher have?).

But in the most simplistic terms, there will be some available viable upgrades, and the O’s have a deep and flourishing system which can and should be used to augment.

That doesn’t mean Elias needs to give away the store, but he’s aware on June 1st that help is going to be needed.
It’s on him to find the right target and price.

If the primary take here is that the O’s are losing margin of error, the secondary issue is that the shopping list of potential needs is growing.

As is, the Orioles bullpen is probably not good enough to win multiple rounds in the post-season.
Adding at-least one high leverage reliever has to happen.

Also, where are the O’s going to be in-terms of LF, CF, 2nd, and 3rd at the Trade Deadline?

To be clear, I’m not saying the O’s will have to go outside of the organization for any of those positions.
I am saying that things aren’t currently completely clear at those positions.

• Is Mullins going to hit enough going forward to hold down CF?
• If not, and Cowser takes over CF, is Hays going to get going and hold down LF? Stowers?
• Jorge Mateo had a strong May. He’s fun to watch with his combination of speed, defense, and bat speed (when he’s making contact). He also very strong in April ’23, and finished the year with a .607 OPS. Is he going to be the 2nd baseman the rest of the year?
• If Mateo loses 2nd at some point, does Holliday come back up to replace? His previous 10 game audition was a poor showing, but it was 10 games. When he comes back up, will he be ready to consistently produce?
• If Mateo loses 2nd at some point, Westburg could be the guy, but that leaves open 3rd. Coby Mayo has been on the IL at Norfolk with broken ribs. He’s expected to return to the Tides by the end of June. Assuming he picks up where he left off offensively, he could be up to the Majors by the deadline. Will the O’s feel good enough about his defense to hand him 3rd?
• Another option for Mayo’s ascension would be getting time at DH, with O’Hearn potentially standing in LF. Not the best plan if you care about defense, but you can squint your eyes and see it.

One of the things the O’s have built effectively under Elias’ leadership is positional versatility.
They aren’t often in a position where all is lost if there is injury or under-performance.
In various configurations, the O’s have Cowser, Mullins, Westburg, Mayo, Holliday, Mateo, Hays, Kjerstad, Urias, O’Hearn, Stowers etc available to give the O’s multiple possible answers.

All I’m suggesting here is that it is at-least possible that the O’s have to go outside the organization to address / improve upon one of these positions.
And if so, when you add that to needing a high leverage reliever, and a starter; the shopping list starts to look a bit long, even accounting for the deep organization the Orioles have.

The ultimate point being Elias might not be able to go and get everything he wants.
What are his priorities?
How much will he be willing to spend?