UEFA European Football Championship

Euro 2024 is set to kick off this Friday, June 14th when the host nation Germany and Scotland tangle in Munich. This tournament is second in popularity only behind the World Cup. And like the World Cup its held every four years and is must see soccer. This years tournament will consist of 24 teams divided into 6 groups of 4 each. As with most major events, the Group Stage will be comprised of a set of round robin matches with each team playing the other three teams in their respective groups. The top 2 teams in each group will advance to the knockout stage along with 4 third place teams (highest point totals with a lot of tie potentially involved).

Before getting into a breakdown of each group and what to expect from the matches here’s some interesting trivia you can toss out when sitting watching the matches in your local watering holes or at a friends watch party.

1. Germany and Spain have won 3 Euros each while France and Italy have 2 each.
2. Italy won in 2020 besting England in penalties. Of course you knew that right? But do you remember who was the Player of the Tournament? Probably not but it was Italy’s Gianluigi Donnarumma. But where you can really impress your trivia buddies is in knowing that he is the only goalkeeper to win that award in the competitions 16 tournaments. Note that Germany’s Oliver Kahn is the only keeper to have won the World Cup Golden Ball (2002).
3. Germany is competing in its 14th Euros, most of any country and of course, would like to win in front of their home crowds.
4. Spain will be playing in its 12th Euros and is the only country to have won back-to-back (2008 and 2012).
5. England, you know those poor lads that invented the game, is entering their 11th Euro but have played the most matches (38) of any country to yet to have won the event. Maybe 2024 is their time?

With that backdrop lets go take a look at the 6 groups and see how each nation stacks up. And as always the group draws will potentially play a large role in how Group Play shakes out. Can’t overstate this potential. In a long tournament like this being able to rotate players during the early stages can pay dividends once the knockout rounds begin.

Group A

Composite FIFA Ranking – 100

A very interesting group. The only one that doesn’t feature a top 10 team but it does have the host nation, the third overall favorite to win by oddsmakers based on their draw and being the hosts. So while it doesn’t have one of the super teams it also doesn’t have one of the much weaker teams. The lowest ranked team, Scotland at 39) would be higher than the lowest ranked team in every other group except Group D. So this will be a good one to watch as all the matches should be competitive.

Germany (16) – As already mentioned they are 3rd by the oddsmakers to win it all. Now this is not one of the German powerhouse sides of years past. But they are playing at home and they still have plenty of talent. Germany has been the sole host nation of 3 previous major tournaments (1974 World Cup, Euros 1998, and World Cup 2006). The worst finish they did in those 3 tournaments was 4th. Their talent is across the board and is more of depth than individual superstars. But with keepers Manual Neuer and Marc-Ander ter Stegen, center back Antonio Rudiger, and experience in the midfield (Leroy Sane and Ilkay Gundogan) they will be a tough out. But to me the player to watch is 21 year old Jamal Musiala. Hes fast, smart, and can score form anywhere.

Hungary (26) –  While not one of the storied European soccer nations they have a strong history  and this side is full of players from the top 5 leagues across Europe. Naysayers like to point out that they didn’t win a single match in the 2020 tournament. But they were missing Liverpool midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai. While not loaded with household names they are a complete roster and have a decent shot to advance in this tight group.

Scotland (39) – The simple key for the Scots is to find a way to free Manchester United midfielder Scott McTomiany. He tallied 7 goals in their qualifying campaign and averaged just over 1 goal + assists/90 minutes in qualifying. If he finds space he can create havoc. In most groups they would not be expected to advance and while its the same for this group this one is close enough to give them a legit shot.

Switzerland (19) – The Swiss (along with France) are the only European team to have advanced out of the group stages in the last 5 major international tournaments. In Euros 2020 they ousted the French in the Round of 16 on penalties. The player to watch for the Swiss is striker Zeki Amdouni. The Burnley forward led the team in goals during the qualifying rounds and looks to make his mark for a potential transfer to a bigger club this summer. But opposing defenses best not key on him too much or  veteran Xherdan Shaqiri will punish them.

Prediction – Germany and Switzerland advance but any of the four teams are capable of moving on.

Group B

Composite FIFA Ranking – 93

There are two choices this time around for the “coveted” Group of Death. This one and Group D. Group D gets the overall nod due to the top to bottom quality. But dang this group has a 3 way blitzkrieg for the top two spots. The good news is that even though one of the top 10 teams in the world won’t finish in the top 2 they will likely advance as one of the top 3rd place teams. The problem is that it just means a tougher Round of 16 matchup. The other issue is that these sides are going to have to go pretty much full strength in each match except against Albania. Not much room to rotate a lot in this group.

Albania (66) – First the good news. This tiny little country has qualified for their second ever Euros (2016). So kudos to them. Now the bad news. They are going to play 3 matches and its doubtful they earn a single point. They could have an outside shot at getting a 0-0 draw in their final Group Stage match against Spain IF Spain has already clinched the group and does a major squad rotation. Not likely.

Croatia (10) – The Croatians have become a tough tournament out. They seem to perform better than the sum of their parts in major tournaments. Some say they play over their heads but its not like they aren’t filled with talent. They have the ultimate energizer bunny in midfield in Luka Modric. While Modric is getting up there at 38 he still seems to have enough in the tank to play a quality 60 or so minutes. With Modric, Marcelo Brozovic, and Mateo Kovacic they have one of the best midfield trios in the world. They can control matches for long periods of time. Their issue is in the front. Andrej Kramaric, Ivan Perisic, and Marco Pasalic are good enough attackers but their finishing isn’t the best. If they find some final touch they could be deadly.

Italy (9) – Not much has changed. Italy has always been about defense first and this side is no different. However, they are not without some attacking weapons, especially Juventus forward Federico Chiesa. He only played in 2 qualifying matches due to injuries. But he scored 2 goals. If he’s fit, and that’s a big if with him, he can propel Italy a long ways in this tournament. But at the end of they day the man in the nets will be the key. If Gianluigi Donnarumma stands on his head like he’s capable of they just don’t allow goals. And you don’t lose if the other team is held to a clean sheet. Always Italy’s mantra.

 Spain (8) –  Like Italy is known for its defensive posture, Spain is known as the possession kings. Similar mantra to Italy. If the other team doesn’t have the ball they can’t score. Spain prides itself on terrific first touches and deadly accuracy for passes. Their off ball movement is very difficult to defend and ball chasing is very tiring. The problem for opponents is to just let Spain have that possession but not let it get in your heads. The flip side to the possession game is that it may keep the other team from scoring but if all you do is pass around in the midfield with no attempts to penetrate….well then you don’t score either. But under manager Luis de la Fuente they outside players have been given more latitude in making runs down the wings. This new look with players like Dani Carvajal and Alejandro Grimaldo making deep attacking runs really compounds the difficulty in defending against Spain. This side is well positioned to make a run at their 4th Euros title.

Prediction – Albania goes home. The other three all advance but I’ll give the group to Spain with Italy taking 2nd. Croatia gets advances as one of the best 3rd place teams. But when you get to the Knockout Stage e very, very careful with Croatia. They rise to the big games.

Group C

Composite FIFA Ranking – 115

England fans have a lot to be thankful for with this draw. There are three groups where there is a clear projected group winner and this is one of them. While Denmark is a solid side, the Three Lions are clearly the best team in the group. They were just penalties away from ending their long trophy drought at Euros 2020 and if anything are even better this time around. As they say you still have to play the game but anything short of England topping the group will be a major upset.

Denmark (21) – One of the better middle of the pack teams, they are looking to build on their semi-finals run at Euro 2020. They certainly got a favorable group draw and should be able to advance. This is probably the last major tournament for keeper Kasper Schmeichel (37) and maybe even midfielder Christian Eriksen (32, but recall he suffered cardiac arrest at their first match in Euro 2020 and he’s been injury plagued this club season with Manchester United). Eriksen is the creative playmaker in the middle of the field and the Danes need him to be at his best for them to thrive. They play a possession oriented attack but are best known for their creativity and danger when taking free kicks. Hint to their opponents – do not foul them in their attacking third. You will regret it. But they do have a flaw that tends to hold them back and that is getting caught too far upfield and vulnerable to counters.

England (4) – They were undefeated in qualifying (6-2-0) while scoring 22 goals and only allowing 4. They have one of the top goal scorers in the world in Harry Kane and he is coming off an insanely club good season scoring 44 goals and adding 12 assists in 44 matches for Bayern Munich. If he gets a good look it usually finds the back of the next. The problem for opposing defenses is that they also have Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka sitting behind Kane in the midfield and they both had terrific club seasons as well. Then you can add in Phil Foden, and well England just has a lot of players who can score a lot of goals. The weakness right now is in the back. Not the strongest back line to start with and they have been hit with the injury bug. Luke Shaw (LB) has been injured most of the season and has played very little. His primary backup is Kieran Trippier, normally a RB, but can play on the left. But Trippier has also been injured a lot the last several months. John Stones and Harry McGuire will line up as CBs and Kyle Walker will likely start at RB. Just not the strength you’d like to see for a top flight side. But they can get the job done if not overly pressed. The oddsmakers like them to win it all.

Serbia (33) – This team has an interesting concept for their attack in that they employ dual #10s. When a team has two quality playmakers like Sergej Milinkovic and Dusan Tadic they become tough to control. But the best is their use of set pieces. They have size all over the field and use that to their advantage. In the modern game now about 1/3 of all goals are scored via set pieces. Enough said. Be careful of these guys.

Slovenia (57) – First the bad news. They are playing in just their 2nd Euros and frankly don’t have the horsepower to defend well against the attacking sides of England and Denmark. But, and this is a huge but, they do have Jan Oblak in goal and he is simply world class. Oblak has the ability to shut down opponents and if he gets a hot hand they could make some noise. Time will tell but they will need Oblak to just be unbeatable for them to have much of a chance to advance.

Prediction – England and Denmark advance. Toss up as to whether a 3rd place advancing team comes out of this group.

Group D

Composite FIFA Ranking – 62

Well lets get this out of the way straight away. This is the Group of Death.  Two sides ranked in the top 7 and Poland at 28th is the lowest ranked team in the group and that is 11 places higher than the next highest last place side (#39 Scotland in Group A). Every team in this group would be likely to advance as at least a 3rd place finisher except had they been drawn in Group B. Unfortunately no matter how well all these teams play in the Group Stage, at least one of them goes home when its done. Such is the luck of the draw.

Austria (25) – The timing of this tournament has just not worked out well for Austria. Starting keeper, Alexander Schlager, midfielder Xaver Schlager, and most importantly defender and Captain David Alaba are all out with injuries. They still have some talent with none more important than Dortmund midfielder Marcel Sabitzer. He likes to pull the trigger and he will need to do so during this tournament and Austrian fans better hope his aimer is on as they will need to finish most of their limited chances.

France (2) – The missing trophy under manager Didier Deschamps having won the WC and Euro Nations League. Don’t bet against them in this one. They are the second choice by the oddsmakers and with good reason. In qualifying they went 7-1-0 while scoring a whopping 29 goals while only allowing 3. They feature THE best player in the world in Kylian Mbappe, one of the most game smart players in the world in Antoine Griezmann, and the best CB in the EPL in William Saliba. But where Les Bleus excel is in their depth. They are solid all across the field and have tremendous talent in reserve. They have the ability to rotate players in every match giving them a huge leg up against most other teams once they reach the Knockout Stages. They will advance and they will be rested. IF I had to pick a team to win it, France would be it. Not the team I want to see in the end but hard to bet against them. If for no other reason than Mbappe has won the Golden Boot (top scorer) in the last 2 WCs.

Netherlands (7) – The Dutch are still one of the classiest and fluid sides in the world. They can just beat you multiple ways and are so difficult to defend since they are so free flowing. You just never know at a given  moment where the danger is going to come from. Case in point, during qualifying Denzel Dumfries earned 5 assists. Tops for all defenders in Euro qualifying. When you have that kind of capability coming out of th back its just hard to track everybody. In central defense they have one of the top players in the world in Virgil Van Dijk and he is also a handful on set pieces and corners. He has a deadly header. In the attack you have two terrific goal scorers in Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay. They have to tools to go far in this one.

Poland (28) – The best “worst group” team in the tournament. Once again the Poles will rely on Robert Lewandowski to finish their chances. And they will need to outscore their opponents as their defense is suspect. Their outside backs are strong moving forward but not the best defensively and their CBs are a bit slow. Just a tough combination when paired with strong scoring sides like France and the Netherlands.

Prediction – France and the Netherlands move on. Poland or Austria have a shot at a 3rd place advancement if they can earn a magic point against the Netherlands or less likely against France and then win against the other weaker team as it will likely take 4 points to advance.

Group E

Composite FIFA Ranking – 119

If you are Belgium your are happy as heck with this draw with Ukraine being the only team that should provide much of a test. And the schedule plays strongly in favor of both Belgium and Ukraine in that they don’t face each other until Matchday 3. Likely by then both of those sides will have earned enough points to advance and may play a lot of subs and shoot for a draw. Some of that will depend on how the other groups are looking and who their first Knockout Stage opponent is likely to be. But by and large this group is pretty easy to handicap.

Belgium (3) – The are ranked #3 for good reason and it all starts with one of the best playmakers in the world in Kevin De Bruyne. As he goes so go the Red Devils. Up top they look to Romelu Lukaku. The big beast loves to beat up on lesser teams and he may well have a run during the Group Stage. None of their opponents matchup well with him. The one point of concern is the switch in the back with manager Dominico Tedesco announcing that long time starter Thibaut Courtois was not in the final squad and keeping duties have been assigned to Koen Casteels. If his switch doesn’t present team discord then Belgium will do well.

Romania (46) – In Euros 2000 they advanced out of a killer group comprised of them and Germany, England, and Portugal. A result nobody saw coming. Do they have some magic in their back pocket for 2024? For them to advance they will have to show the same stout defense that they did during qualifying when they only allowed 5 goals in 10 games. They will have to replicate that because they won’t beat teams at the other end. They only scored 16 goals in their 10 qualifying matches. That rare of scoring will probably not be enough to move forward. If you have $10 your willing to toss in the trash then bet on them to win it all. That miracle of all miracles would pocket you a cool $2010. Or you could go to your local burger joint and at least get most of a meal out of your $10.

Slovakia (48) – Just like Romania above the got in on defense and will ride that train to the end of the line. Which will be the station at the end of Group Stage. To give them some credit though they were the only Pot 5 team to qualify for Euros so that’s something. But its not enough without some earth shaking upsets.

Ukraine (22) – The Blue and Yellow will go on the shots of Artem Dovbyk, the leading goal scorer in La Liga, and the wheels of midfielder Mykhailo Mudryk. They will test defenses all match long and sooner or later will break through. The weakness in on the defensive side of the ball. They are a bit suspect in the back. But they got a very favorable draw in that two of their opponents just don’t score goals.

Prediction – Belgium wins the group and Ukraine takes 2nd. Neither Romania or Slovakia get a 3rd place advancement.

Group F

Composite FIFA Ranking – 157

The weakest group of the bunch and by a fair bit. Portugal is happy as heck. The Czech and Turks are equally as happy as one of them will advance and maybe even both of them, And Georgia? Well they are just happy to be there.

Czechia (36) – Its the midfield duo of Michal Sadilek and Tomas Soucek that will drive the Czech ship. The are a good ball controlling pair and great at breaking down opponents build up play. They had the 5th lowest Xg allowed in all of qualifying. If that continues they have a solid chance to advance.

Georgia (75) – The lowest ranked team to make the tournament and they will be making their first appearance ever. Don’t expect much. But then given that they don’t have anything to lose they may go all out just to score a goal or two. The flip side of doing that is they could concede goals in bunches. Both of which could be entertaining. If they, however, choose to park the bus and keep from getting blown out it could me a set of boring matches. We’ll see what manager Willy Sagnol comes up with. Me? I’d tell him to go for it. Rather lose 10-1 than 3-0 any day. Score a goal and go home with your heads held high.

Portugal (6) – How good are these guys? Good enough that they are the ONLY team to win every qualifying match. Yep 10-0-0 while scoring 36 goals and allowing 2. No that is not a misprint. They allowed a paltyr 2 goals in their 10 qualifying matches. Most nations in the world would love to have guys in their lineup like Diogo Jota and Jaoa Felix. Well they don’t even start for Portugal who trot out Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, and Bernardo Silva. They are one of the most balanced teams in the tournament and are the 3rd overall favorites to win it all and some of that is due to their draw. They should be able to skate thought the Group Stage and win it while being well rested for the Knockout Stage. Diogo Costa in goal is solid and a great choice for a keeper if you are playing fantasy as Portugal has a high potential for clean sheets in the Group Stage. In fact, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if they don’t allow a goal! Ronaldo is 39 and this is surely his last major tournament…but he did just lead the Saudi league in goals scored so don’t look past him.

Turkey (40) – They come in full of enthusiasm and youthful energy. The test will be if they can keep their heads on straight and not let the big moments get to them. They are a middle of the field team. They don’t score much but they allow their opponents to score ever less. If Arda Guler (19) and Kerem Akturkoglu (25) can take the next step forward this summer they will be a fun side to watch.

Prediction – Portugal should win the group handily and should come out well rested. Czechia and Turkey should battle for second with their matchup on Matchday 3 the key. Both could advance as well.

So there you have it and it all starts this Friday with every match being shown on the FOX family of channels. Take a look, it will be worth your time.

Who do I think wins it all? France but i am not betting on that. I am going elsewhere.

England. GO THREE LIONS!!!!