Mike Elias’ Wednesday afternoon announcement that both Kyle Bradish and Danny Coulombe had undergone elbow surgery was met with little surprise throughout Birdland. In the midst of what has otherwise been an exhilarating start to the 2024 MLB season, Orioles fans have been forced to become all too accustomed to injuries to the pitching staff. Bradish and Coulombe are just the latest names on a list that has included John Means, Tyler Wells, Grayson Rodriguez, and Dean Kremer at various points in the season, and with at least three of those six set to miss the remainder of the 2024 campaign, Baltimore’s options are beginning to draw thin.
Fortunately, the Orioles continue to get solid contributions for unexpected places. Cole Irvin has rebounded nicely after a disappointing 2023 season, Albert Suarez has become one of the best feel-good stories in baseball, and Cade Povich has shown potential over his first few starts in the big leagues. Meanwhile, the bullpen has pitched to the third best ERA in the majors despite an obvious lack of high profile names.
That being said, there are still plenty of questions to be answered regarding how the Orioles will navigate the coming months given their lack of available arms. It seems inevitable that the front office will look to bolster the starting rotation at the trade deadline, as counting on any of the three aforementioned pitchers to win you a playoff game would be optimistic to say the least. The question that remains is which starters will be available, and will Elias and co. be willing to meet the asking price?
In terms of one year rentals, the options are fairly limited. The Mets have a pair of arms the Orioles could turn to in Jose Quintana and Luis Severino, both of whom would be relatively inexpensive and could provide some much needed stability down the stretch. It remains to be seen whether David Stearns will decide to sell in his first season as the general manager in New York, but if he does, Quintana and Severino would likely be the first two names out the door.
At 35 years old, Quintana is well past his prime and the numbers have started to show it. His 4.58 ERA represents the third highest mark of his career, and his advanced analytics place him in the bottom third of MLB pitchers in expected ERA, chase rate, whiff rate, and hard-hit rate. Still, as someone who has exceeded 170 innings seven times in his career, Quintana could help manage the workload for the rest of Baltimore’s staff and keep Rodriguez, Kremer, and Corbin Burnes fresh for October. I wouldn’t give up much for the left-hander, but if the Orioles can bring him to town in exchange for an outfielder in the upper levels of the minors like Billy Cook, Hudson Haskin, or John Rhodes, it might be worth consideration.
On the other hand, the 30-year old Severino would likely command a larger return given his age and superior track record. The former Yankee has rebounded nicely after a disastrous 2023 campaign, pitching to a 3.52 ERA over his first 84.1 innings of 2024. While the strikeouts have been few and far between, the right-hander has found ways to consistently limit hard contact and could make for an intriguing rotation piece for any team looking to make a postseason run. Jim Bowden of The Athletic proposed a trade in which the Orioles would acquire Severino for right-handed pitcher Trace Bright and outfielder Jud Fabian, and while I think that might be an overpay for someone with Severino’s profile given Bright’s tremendous upside, it’s likely not far off from what it would take. Sending Fabian, right-hander Alex Pham, and one of the aforementioned outfielders to New York would probably be enough to get the deal done without mortgaging the farm.
Yusei Kikuchi is another player that the Orioles could make a move for if Toronto decides to throw in the towel. The left-hander has looked sharp throughout the final year of a three-year contract he signed with the Blue Jays prior the 2022 season, walking just 20 batters while striking out 86 over his first 16 starts. His high velocity fastball and interesting four-pitch mix would make him a solid No. 3 in Baltimore’s rotation, and while it may be difficult to pry him away from a divisional opponent, Toronto has plenty of reasons to try to recoup assets and make a run next year before the rookie contracts of Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette run out. A package that includes two major league ready players in Kyle Stowers and Justin Armbruester, supplemented by a lower level slugger in Creed Willems, would make sense for both sides.
Two other names worthy of consideration are two of the biggest names who were moved at last year’s trade deadline in Texas’ Michael Lorenzen and Arizona’s Jordan Montgomery. Despite winning their respective pennants last October, the Rangers and Diamondbacks have gotten off to disappointing starts in 2024, sitting at 37-40 and 38-40 respectively. Both teams are on the outside looking in when it comes to the postseason picture and if that remains to be the case for another month, it wouldn’t be shocking to see either of them consider moving a piece that they will lose at the end of the season anyway. Texas and Arizona, much like Toronto, would likely be looking for major league ready contributors in return so infielder Connor Norby could be the perfect headliner in a deal for either starting pitcher.
Moving over to pitchers who still have multiple years remaining on their current contracts, Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde of the Chicago White Sox have been two of the most talked about names on the market. Having spent the first three years of his major league career either in the bullpen or on the injured list, Crochet has been nothing short of dominant in his first season as a starter. The 25-year old left-hander has allowed just 64 hits, 20 walks, and 32 earned runs while striking out a league-leading 124 batters over the course of his first 88.2 innings. Meanwhile, though at a very different point in his career, Fedde has been equally as impressive during the first three months of the season. Having returned to major league baseball after winning the MVP award in the KBO last year, the veteran right-hander has pitched to a 3.05 ERA while posting a walk rate, ground ball rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity in the top third of MLB pitchers.
While both would serve as excellent additions to Baltimore’s roster, Fedde makes significantly more sense for a plethora of reasons. Not only would Crochet cost significantly more due to his age and potential, but he has also already exceeded his previous career high in innings by more than 30. It is very possible that he will reach an innings limit within the next few months and if that is the case, his value to Baltimore would diminish significantly. Meanwhile, Fedde tossed over 180 innings last year and has a much longer track record as a starter, so considering that his salary for next season is still just $7.5 million, the Orioles have every reason to make a move for him. I’d be happy to include any prospect other than Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo, and Heston Kjerstad to acquire the right-hander, and if the White Sox are willing to add Tommy Pham and a high-upside reliever to the deal, I wouldn’t even consider Kjerstad off limits.
Tyler Anderson is another arm I’d keep my eye on given his skills and experience. The left-hander cashed in on a fantastic 2022 campaign with the Dodgers, signing a three-year, $39 million contract with the Angels prior to the start of the 2023 season. He followed that up with a disastrous opening campaign in Anaheim but has rebounded nicely in 2024, pitching to a 2.48 ERA with a 1.177 WHIP over his first 15 starts. His 4.55 FIP, 1.54 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and inability to consistently produce ground balls suggest that regression is inevitable, but playing in front of Mt. Walltimore at Camden Yards could work wonders for his ability to continue shutting down opposing offenses. With one more year remaining on his current contract, the Angels will likely look to cash-in on Anderson’s recent form at the trade deadline, making him one of the top arms that could be moved. I would be willing to part with a highly-touted name such as Fabian, Dylan Beavers, or maybe even Norby, as well as a couple of other top 30 prospects, if it meant adding the left-hander to the rotation for the next year and a half.
Acquiring any of the aforementioned pitchers would kill two birds with one stone, as it would not only supplement the starting rotation but would also allow Suarez, Irvin, or Povich to move into a long relief role. Suarez makes the most sense for that move given his poor performances against the Yankees and Astros, as well as his lack of a proven track record against major league hitters. There is certainly a place for him on the roster, but starting him every fifth day from now until October feels like a recipe for disaster. Entrusting him to pick up the slack and keep the team in ballgames when another pitcher doesn’t have their best stuff would be a much safer and more responsible way to allow him to continue contributing to the Orioles’ World Series aspirations.
Furthermore, bringing a pitcher with additional years of control would address Baltimore’s larger problem of lacking starting pitching options in 2025. Due to the timing of their respective surgeries, Bradish and Wells are likely to miss most, if not all, of next season, and with Corbin Burnes set to hit free agency this offseason, the Orioles could find themselves in an even worse position a year from now. You never want to make deals from a position of desperation, but overpaying slightly at this year’s deadline to solidify the rotation moving forward would ensure that the championship window extends well beyond this season. Elias has held onto prospects tightly over his five-year tenure as general manager, but the injuries this roster has had to endure may force him to depart from that path sooner rather than later.
It’s also worth noting that the Orioles could also address this long-term problem by signing Burnes to a long-term contract extension. The right-hander has made it abundantly clear that he has no interest in signing a deal this season as he wants to test the open market in hopes of finding a deal similar to the 9-year, $324 million contract Gerrit Cole signed back in 2019. While six months ago that would have put the Orioles out of the running for his services, the new ownership group could take the opportunity to make their first significant mark on the organization. Baltimore has been burned by many of its largest contracts of the 21st century, and it’s no secret that signing a pitcher to a long-term deal comes with a huge amount of risk. However, pitchers like Burnes don’t come around often and keeping him in Charm City for the next decade would give the team a true ace to lead them through the postseason for the foreseeable future.
Still, it remains unlikely that Elias and his financial backers will let this season’s injuries impact their decision when it comes to a Burnes extension. After all, both Bradish and Wells should be back by the start of 2026 at the latest, and a $300 million contract could impact Baltimore’s ability to compete for nearly a decade. However, the lack of available arms could lead the organization to be more willing to offer Burnes a shorter-term deal with higher AAV’s similar to what Scott Boras clients Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Cody Bellinger ended up signing last offseason. If the Orioles offer a two-year deal in the neighborhood of $100 million, a number that would greatly exceed the previous record of AAV of $43.3 million, it could give them their ace for the next few seasons while also allowing Burnes to hit free agency once again before he is out of his prime. Whether Burnes would be willing to bet on himself and take that chance remains to be seen, but if he is, it could be the perfect solution for all parties involved.
Regardless of which path forward the Orioles choose, it is clear that the organization is going to have to take some significant risks if it wants to achieve the ultimate reward. Whether it’s trading prospects or handing out large contracts, the front office needs to show that it is willing to do whatever it takes to win a World Series. Elias tossed a few chips into the center of the table when he acquired Burnes in the offseason, and there’s no turning back now. It’s time for him to go all-in, acquire some arms, and set Baltimore on the best possible path towards winning its first championship in forty years.
Luke Rollfinke is a student at Vanderbilt where he is pursuing a career in sports journalism. A recent graduate from the Friends School of Baltimore, Luke has spent his entire childhood in Charm City and is a devoted Orioles fan. In the past, he has written for SB Nation and has worked closely with Ravens columnist John Eisenberg. From nights at Camden Yards to Sunday afternoons watching NFL Redzone, Luke eats, sleeps, and breathes sports. He is excited to bring his perspective to BSL.