81 Games In The Books, 2nd Half Questions

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Texas Rangers last night to improve to 51-30.  The 81 games played represent half of the 162 game regular season slate.

Below we will review what we’ve seen from the O’s so far, and discuss what we see as the leading questions for the Birds over the remainder of the season.

Before that though, some thoughts on a podcast interview I was listening to this morning.

The NBA Finals just ended with the Boston Celtics winning the Championship.
Their GM (and former Head Coach) Brad Stevens joined Ryen Russillo’s pod on The Ringer to discuss.

Ryen’s first question to Brad was, “How does it feel to be the champion?” 

I’m paraphrasing Brad’s answer, but effectively Brad stated, “Honestly, not much different. The parade was great. Seeing our players who had been through the wars get to be called Champions was great. But there isn’t much change. Got home, walked the dog, took out the trash. What I’ve wanted to do since I arrived in Boston was be part of an organization which was regularly in the hunt.” 

Brad is the architect of the Celtics, and that’s his sentiment being up close and immensely personally invested.

I love the O’s, and I’m watching and following every game, but I don’t work for the organization.
I’m just a fan.
If the O’s win or lose a game, life goes on, and there are the other million things always going on that then grab the attention.

Investing in sports fandom is fun, and can have huge payoffs emotionally.
Horrible losses can sting.
Great wins can bring on temporary euphoria, and lasting memories.
I think what I enjoy most about following sports are the unexpected surprises, and the journey of teams (and individual players).

Bringing this back to Brad’s comments, where I see correlation with the Orioles, and the O’s fans, and the O’s front-office is:

• Culmination does matter. You are playing to win Championships and hang banners. The O’s haven’t won a World Series since I was 4 years old, and 5 weeks from now I’ll be 45. But win or lose, after the last out of the World Series is made, that season is in the books and the clock on another season begins.
• The Celtics have been on a journey for sometime. Even in the most recent seasons, Boston lost the 2022 NBA Finals, and the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals. There were large core elements of those teams still in place in ’24, but there were also significant changes. The O’s Front Office will have to be deciding, how much do they like their core, and what tinkering is necessary?
• The O’s Front Office will also have to weigh how much of tomorrow do you potentially sacrifice for today? Again, you are playing to win Championships, but the goal is also to have extended runs, and multiple opportunities. What’s the right balance in adding to the chances today vs. possibly prematurely closing the window going forward?

Takeaways On The First 81 Games & 2nd Half Questions

• The O’s won 101 games last year, and are on pace for 102 wins this year.  It’s a very good time to be an Oriole fan. I find watching a largely home-grown team vs. a bunch of mercenaries to be immensely more rewarding as a fan.
• The Dodgers currently lead MLB in run-differential at +120.  The O’s and Phillies are next at +119.  That’s another indicator of how good the Birds are.  The O’s are 1st in runs scored, 1st in slugging, and 3rd overall in ERA.  The O’s have strong defensive elements. They run well.  It’s a very balanced team, that can beat you in multiple ways.
• I wasn’t alone in anticipating that Gunnar Henderson would be making the leap from 2023 Rookie of the Year, into 2024 MVP consideration – but it’s been a lot of fun watching him this first half. He’s at 6.0 in FanGraphs fWAR through half a season. He’s on-pace for a largely historic season.  I thought as a SS he’d be above-average defensively, but not elite. He’s been great with the glove. He’s competitive. He runs hard, and makes great baserunning decisions. There’s nothing he can’t do. After Ripken, I would have said the best home-grown Orioles were Mussina and Machado. Both of them obviously spent their later years not in an O’s uniform. Certainly hope Henderson is an Oriole for many years to come. Will the O’s be able to get an extension done? Maybe, maybe not. Seems more plausible with the Ownership change.
• The O’s pitching injuries have been unfortunate.  Felix Bautista missing all of this year.  Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells combining for just 15 starts, and 75 innings. The O’s have been among the best teams in the game without them. How good would the O’s be had they remained available?  Feel for all of them in different ways. I’m particularly bummed about Bradish, who between last year, and what we saw from him in his 8 outings this year; had emerged as one of the best starters in the American League.
• At different times this year, we’ve seen slumping O’s players left for dead by the fanbase. In particular, I’m thinking about Cedric Mullins, who had people poking at his carcass. Here in 71 ab’s so far in June, Cedric has a .910 OPS. The overall numbers still look rough (abysmal vs. LHP, and the on-base % is still just .265); but everything is inching closer to his production averages of the last two seasons. Sometimes there is too often a rush for judgement. When players have histories, things tend to even out to approximations of what they’ve been. I’m not telling you Cedric is going to definitively be fine here on out. I will say the O’s are a better team if he hits enough that you can have his defensive range in CF, and his speed in the lineup.
• I’ve seen some suggestions that Colton Cowser should be trade-bait. I don’t see it.  He helps a team in a lot of ways, and if Mulllins were to slump again offensively; he’s the guy who would be called upon to hold things down in CF. Cowser was on fire in April, slumped in May, and his June numbers look to be in-line with what should reasonably be expected by him.
• The O’s 5 game losing streak ended earlier this week, with Grayson Rodriguez on the mound.  Rodriguez is now 9-3, with a 3.72 era. (xFIP 3.66.)  In 82.1 innings, he’s allowed 77 hits, 10 homers, 25 bb’s, with 89 k’s. In his 14 starts, he’s had two games where he allowed 7 er.  Another where he allowed 4. In the other 11 starts, he’s allowed 2 er or less.  He’s 24 all of this season. He’s not fully baked. With Bradish on the shelf, it’s imperative that Rodriguez is strong down the stretch and into October.  An awful lot is riding on his young arm.
• Corbin Burnes has been everything you could have hoped for as an Oriole fan. His Baseball Savant page is full of red. He’s already made 17 starts, and he’s basically giving you a great opportunity to win every outing. Nobody is going to be thrilled about giving a pitcher an extended deal. There is clearly lots of risk in doing that with anyone.  Also Burnes is turning 30 in October. But with his track record of durability and pedigree; he’s going to have plenty of suitors. Should the O’s go all in trying to finalize an extension?  With Bradish out all of ’25, I think there is some increased pressure for the O’s to pursue a deal. Burnes figures to want to test Free Agency, but the Orioles are showing him a fun season, which can only increase their chances of striking a deal.
• The O’s are now 12th overall in on-base %, after being in the bottom third of the league the first six weeks or so. Good to see that improvement, also something to watch going forward. The O’s have great power. You get on-base in-front of that power, and you score a lot of runs. It’s hard to pick at the offense at all given that they lead the league in runs scored; but if you were going to do so – you’d say you’d like to see them be able to claw at teams and manufacture runs when the homers aren’t flying. That starts with getting on-base.
• It’s too strong to say the bullpen is a disaster.  What’s reasonable to say is that the ‘pen leaves you wanting.  The individual numbers for Kimbrel, Cano, Webb, Tate, Akin, are decent enough; but collectively you often feel like you are waiting for the other shoe to drop watching them.  The Coulombe injury didn’t help either.  Also should be noted that the injuries in the rotation have provided more pressure and innings on the relievers. Could have also got to a point where Wells was in the pen helping, and that isn’t happening of course. If you are going to survive and advance in the short-sample size that is the playoffs, you are going to have to win your share of high leverage moments and innings. The O’s are lacking (enough) guys that you would want in those situations.  I think it seems evident to all of Birdland that the O’s Front Office is going to need to add at-least one quality reliever to the existing mix.
• Another issue impacting the pen this year is the lack of guys who have Minor League options. In ’25, they could use more guys that could be on the Norfolk shuttle, where they can basically extend the roster.
• The Orioles have a lot positional flexibility, which gives Orioles Manager Brandon Hyde options each night. Clearly there are a handful of players the O’s really depend on, but there are lots of usable pieces throughout the roster. Competition is a good thing. If there is any negative, it’s that sometimes it can be difficult for players to get into a consistent groove when they are in and out of the lineup.
• Santander is a Free Agent after the year.  He has 12 homers this Month. He torches LHP.  His season OPS of .796 looks a lot like last year, and pretty much his career average. He’s a valuable piece of this team here in ’24.  Should he be extended? There are viable arguments on either side.
• Adley Rutschman had a .806 OPS as a rookie, a .809 OPS last year in his first full season, and has a .830 OPS so far here in ’24. Just like last year, he’s performing at much higher level offensively when he’s at DH vs. Catching (1.072 OPS in 112 ab’s as a DH, .694 OPS in 204 ab’s as a C).  When you talk about the Corner OF’s, along with Mountcastle and O’Hearn; you have to factor in the time Adley gets at DH. Also, as we look forward to next year, if Adley is going to get extended time at DH; then finding a better hitting backup Catcher than McCann makes sense. Orioles prospect Samuel Basallo is probably not that guy to begin ’25, but you could picture him at some point next year in a extended back up C / 1st / DH capacity.
• Really enjoy watching Jordan Westburg everyday. Like his ability to play multiple positions. Like his approach at the plate. For me, his future with the O’s is largely going to be 3rd base. I say that, because at some point next year, I think Jackson Holliday becomes entrenched at 2nd. Here in the remainder of ’24, I think it’s possible that Coby Mayo joins the Birds, and takes over 3rd, with Wesburg starting regularly at 2nd – but for that to happen; the O’s will have to believe that Mayo can play an average ish 3rd base. If that happens, Mayo could always be replaced defensively in close and late situations. In ’25, I think Mayo’s O’s future is tied to 1st and DH.  Don’t see Mountcastle or O’Hearn leaving the O’s here in ’24, but next year I think that becomes viable.
• Heston Kjerstad hit career homer #3 last night, and his first of ’24. I smile when I see Heston playing, as I think it had to have been very tough for him going through his myocarditis health scare. It’s great he was able to get past that, and looks like he has a bright future in-front of him. Defensively he surprised me the other day, showing a bit more range in LF than I expected. Still see him being a largely RF / 1st / DH type; but it was good to see. As the O’s ponder an extension for Santander, Kjerstad could factor there.
• There’s an awful lot to like right now.  The Orioles were one of the best teams in baseball last year, and are again one of the best teams in baseball this year. Despite some adversity, the O’s have found ways to continue to win. Pretty clearly the primary question with the O’s is do they have enough starting pitching to get through the season and win games that matter in October?  October baseball is short-samples. I’m of the opinion that it’s largely luck of the draw. That said, even with the playoffs being largely luck, you want to feel like you are giving yourself the best opportunity possible. Burnes starting Game 1 of a Playoff series certainly works. Ideally Rodriguez would be starting Game 3, but if he’s your 2nd starter, that’s fine. After that?  Kremer, Irvin, Suarez, Povich are all useful. What they do over the remainder of the season will largely determine if the O’s win the AL East, or a Wild Card. One or two of them (if not starting) could also end up helping the bullpen.  But I don’t think you’d feel great about any of them starting a Game 3. If the cost to improve the rotation with a 2/3 starter, and improve the bullpen with a legitimate high leverage reliever is Basallo, Kjerstad, Connor Norby and friends; should the O’s be doing that? Not to cop out on my own hypothetical, but I’d need to see exactly who would be coming back. I am of the opinion that a starter with upside needs to be added. And with Bradish out for ’25, and Burnes hitting Free Agency; I’d want to be targeting someone with team control, that I know I’d be able to team with Rodriguez at the front of the rotation to begin next year.

 

It’s been a fun first half, and I’m looking forward to seeing how the rest of the year unfolds.
To again circle back to the Brad Stevens comments… I’m enjoying the process here. I’m enjoying having a high quality team that looks like they can regularly be in the hunt for years.
As a fan, I do want to see this ’24 team augmented, because Championships matter, and when you have a title opportunity – you should be giving that a nudge.
One of the reasons you accumulate the organizational depth the Orioles have, is to use it when necessary.
That said, there are limits to how much the O’s should be spending today at the cost of tomorrow. For example, I don’t think (or expect) there is any scenario where Holliday or Mayo are traded.
Orioles GM Mike Elias has some real decisions to make before the Trade Deadline.

81 games and October awaits!